SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 51-41 the Athletics are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 47.6 wins. If you consider winning as a clear-cut underdog or winning by 2+ as a slight favorite, or by 5+ as a favorite then they have 32 good wins vs 25 bad losses. They have won 54% of their road games and were expected to win 50%. At home they have a 57% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 54%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 14-6 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 10.5 wins. The Athletics are a good team (in simulations) and won 57.2% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 5/6.
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +0.73 which ranks #5 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #6. They are the #5 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #6 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is +2.2 (#2 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 92 Games||5.1 (#7)||0.246 (#9)||0.621 (#5)|
|Road||5.6 (#4)||0.250 (#9)||0.617 (#6)|
|Home||4.6 (#9)||0.241 (#11)||0.629 (#6)|
|Last 10 Games||5.9 (#4)||0.230 (#13)||0.605 (#8)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.3 (#4)||0.241 (#4)||0.546 (#2)|
|Road||4.6 (#4)||0.248 (#6||0.570 (#3)|
|Home||4.1 (#4)||0.235 (#4)||0.522 (#2)|
|Last 10 Games||3.7 (#2)||0.248 (#4)||0.537 (#1)|
NEXT 9 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 9 games is generally good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road GameJUL 12LIKELY WIN74% CHW--JUL 13LIKELY WIN74% CHW--JUL 14LIKELY WIN78% CHW--JUL 16LIKELY WIN62% SEA--JUL 17LIKELY WIN64% SEA--JUL 18CLOSE GAME53% @MIN1573 milesJUL 19CLOSE GAME45% @MIN-- milesJUL 20CLOSE GAME51% @MIN-- milesJUL 21CLOSE GAME52% @MIN-- milesJUL 22LIKELY LOSS35% @HOU1059 miles
The most likely scenario over the next 9 games is a record of 6-3 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 7.4%. Their chances of winning their next 9 are 1.1%. At #6 in the league, they are behind the Indians by one point. With a -1.19 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find themselves further behind in the league. They are ahead of the Red Sox by one point. With a -0.75 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 9 games they may find the gap between them closing.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Athletics are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Athletics are playing 13 games, traveling 20749 miles crossing 26 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Oakland Athletics' next game is on July 12. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Athletics are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2% chance of winning it all. On 5/17 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 3.8% on 7/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.8%. They have an 8.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #6 in the conference and have a 45% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the AL at 3.8% (25/1 odds) and a 2% chance of winning it all (50/1). In simulations they make the World Series 6.5% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #7 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #12 Easiest
Athletics' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||AL Champ||MLB Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Blake Treinen||1.9||87% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #13)|
|Matt Chapman||3||100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #7)|
|Liam Hendriks||1.8||71% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #22)|
|Marcus Semien||2.7||91% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #16)|
|Khris Davis||2.8||97% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #13)|
|Chris Herrmann||1.7||2% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #42)|