Mike Trout's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Of the 12 outfielders that are 100% owned, Mike Trout is projected to be the best fantasy player for the rest of the season. Based on projections, he is trending up slightly. He is projected for 278 fantasy points in 66 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market ranks Mike Trout behind Blackmon and above Springer but the projections rank Mike Trout over Blackmon.

Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
278 (#1) 
Avg 
0.313 (#4) 
OPS1.099 (#1) 
 
Home Runs20 (#1) 
 
Runs52 (#3) 
 
RBI47 (#2) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
8 (#13)
Strikeouts 
 
60 (#108)

His value increases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative strengths than weaknesses.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among outfielders for the rest of week 16 is #3. Week 17 outfielders comparisons show instead of Trout consider these better options at lower start percentages: Christian Yelich (27.5 FP), Charlie Blackmon (27.4 FP), and Mookie Betts (28 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 28 fantasy points (WK 17). Owners expect him to be the most productive outfielder of the week, but he is projected to be the #4 outfielder.

He is projected for 27 fantasy points in week 17 (#4 OF) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
26.97 (#4) 
Avg 
0.307 (#11) 
OPS0.913 (#3) 
 
Home Runs1.96 (#1) 
 
Runs 
5.04 (#4) 
RBI4.47 (#3) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.75 (#15)

  • Based on 7/12 start %s the market values Mike Trout over Betts and the projections agree.
  • Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21
    4.2 FP vs HOU3.6 FP vs HOU3.3 FP vs HOU3 FP vs HOU4.2 FP @SEA4.7 FP @SEA4 FP @SEA

    Mike Trout last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/7 @HOU14 FP, 44 FD, 32 DK2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R
    7/6 @HOU2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 BB
    7/5 @HOU7 FP, 22 FD, 16 DK1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    7/4 @TEX9 FP, 28 FD, 21 DK2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, 1 BB
    7/3 @TEX12 FP, 44 FD, 32 DK2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (7/12): Projected for 15.3 FanDuel pts Mike Trout is the #1 ranked outfielder. At $4700 he is expected to be the #2 outfielder. Based on the projection, Trout is worth $5.2K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 13.8 FPs, a value reached in 100 of 226 games (44%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Mike Trout is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 11.4 DK pts (#1 among outfielders). He is the #2 highest priced outfielder ($5300). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $6.4K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.4 FPs, a value reached in 105 of 226 games (46%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 38%.

    Trout is in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He is not in the FanDuel optimal lineup but is.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 26 fantasy points per week and had 3 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 2 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL26 FP per Week32
    Week 113.5 (4 games 3.4 per game)
    Week 245 (6 games 7.5 per game)+19.1
    Week 35.5 (2 games 2.8 per game)-20.4
    Week 424.5 (7 games 3.5 per game)
    Week 521 (7 games 3 per game)
    Week 615.5 (5 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 727.5 (6 games 4.6 per game)
    Week 824.5 (6 games 4.1 per game)
    Week 924.5 (6 games 4.1 per game)
    Week 1032.5 (6 games 5.4 per game)
    Week 1136 (7 games 5.1 per game)
    Week 1220 (6 games 3.3 per game)
    Week 1345.5 (7 games 6.5 per game)+19.6
    Week 145 (6 games 0.8 per game)-20.9
    Week 1548 (6 games 8 per game)+22.1

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 15.8 points and on DraftKings it was 11.6 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 22 and on FanDuel it was 34.4 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All15.8 ($4.8K)21 G, 28 B11.6 ($5.6K)17 G, 25 B
    7/7 @HOU44.4 ($4.8K)+28.632 ($5.8K)+20.4
    7/6 @HOU6 ($4.5K)-9.85 ($5.1K)-6.6
    7/5 @HOU21.7 ($4.5K)--16 ($5K)--
    7/4 @TEX27.9 ($4.5K)+12.121 ($5.3K)+9.4
    7/3 @TEX44.4 ($4.6K)+28.632 ($5.6K)+20.4
    7/2 @TEX12.2 ($4.5K)--8 ($5.6K)--
    6/30 OAK3 ($4.7K)-12.83-8.6
    6/29 OAK6 ($4.7K)-9.85 ($5.6K)-6.6
    6/28 OAK0 ($4.7K)-15.80 ($5.5K)-11.6
    6/27 OAK6.5 ($4.7K)-9.35 ($5.8K)-6.6
    6/26 CIN6.2 ($4.6K)-9.64 ($5.8K)-7.6
    6/25 CIN3 ($4.7K)-12.83 ($5.7K)-8.6
    6/23 @STL9.2 ($4.8K)--8--
    6/22 @STL6 ($4.9K)-9.85 ($5.7K)-6.6
    6/21 @STL12.2 ($4.9K)--10 ($5.8K)--
    6/20 @TOR21.2 ($4.8K)--15 ($5.8K)--
    6/19 @TOR57.9 ($4.7K)+42.141 ($5.7K)+29.4
    6/18 @TOR6 ($4.6K)-9.84 ($5.6K)-7.6
    6/17 @TOR40.9 ($4.6K)+25.133 ($5.6K)+21.4
    6/16 @TB31.4 ($4.6K)+15.623 ($5.7K)+11.4
    6/15 @TB0 ($4.6K)-15.80-11.6
    6/14 @TB15.2 ($4.7K)--11 ($5.5K)--
    6/13 @TB6.2--4--
    6/11 LAD0 ($4.8K)-15.80 ($5.6K)-11.6
    6/10 LAD22.2 ($4.9K)--16 ($5.2K)--
    6/9 SEA9.2 ($4.8K)--6--
    6/8 SEA36.9 ($4.8K)+21.128 ($5.8K)+16.4
    6/7 SEA12.2 ($4.8K)--9 ($5.6K)--
    6/6 OAK25.2 ($4.8K)+9.418 ($5.7K)+6.4
    6/5 OAK25.2 ($4.8K)+9.418 ($5.5K)+6.4
    6/4 OAK9.2 ($4.9K)--6 ($5.5K)--
    6/3 @CHC6.2 ($4.9K)-9.65 ($5.7K)-6.6
    6/2 @SEA25.4 ($4.8K)+9.619+7.4
    6/1 @SEA30.7 ($4.8K)+14.922 ($5.7K)+10.4
    5/31 @SEA21.7 ($4.7K)--16 ($5.7K)--
    5/30 @SEA25.5 ($4.7K)+9.718 ($5.7K)+6.4
    5/28 @OAK9.2 ($4.6K)--6 ($5.8K)--
    5/27 @OAK3--2--
    5/26 TEX34.4 ($4.8K)+18.625+13.4
    5/25 TEX0 ($4.8K)-15.80 ($4.8K)-11.6
    5/24 TEX9 ($4.8K)--7 ($5.8K)--
    5/23 MIN18.4--13--
    5/21 MIN21.7 ($4.7K)--16 ($5.6K)--
    5/20 MIN0 ($4.9K)-15.80 ($5.6K)-11.6
    5/19 KC12 ($4.7K)--10--
    5/18 KC31.1 ($4.7K)+15.322 ($5.5K)+10.4
    5/17 KC21.2 ($4.7K)--15 ($5.6K)--
    5/15 @MIN12.5 ($4.7K)--9 ($5.7K)--
    5/14 @MIN0 ($4.7K)-15.80 ($5.6K)-11.6
    5/13 @MIN12.2 ($4.7K)--11 ($5.5K)--
    5/12 @BAL24.7 ($4.8K)+8.918 ($5.8K)+6.4
    5/11 @BAL3.2 ($4.9K)-12.62 ($5.7K)-9.6
    5/10 @BAL37.9 ($4.6K)+22.127 ($5.7K)+15.4
    5/9 @DET12.7 ($4.7K)--9 ($5.6K)--
    5/8 @DET0 ($4.8K)-15.80 ($5.6K)-11.6
    5/7 @DET21.2 ($4.8K)--16 ($5.6K)--
    5/5 HOU3 ($4.8K)-12.82-9.6
    5/4 HOU0 ($5K)-15.80 ($5.8K)-11.6
    5/2 TOR24.9 ($5K)+9.119 ($5.6K)+7.4
    5/1 TOR22.5 ($5K)--16 ($5.6K)--
    4/30 TOR3 ($5.2K)-12.82 ($5.7K)-9.6
    4/28 @KC18.4 ($4.9K)--13 ($5.6K)--
    4/27 @KC16 ($5K)--11 ($5.6K)--
    4/26 @KC6.2 ($4.8K)-9.65 ($5.6K)-6.6
    4/25 NYY18.2 ($4.8K)--14 ($5.7K)--
    4/24 NYY3 ($4.9K)-12.82 ($5.6K)-9.6
    4/23 NYY9.2 ($4.9K)--6 ($5.5K)--
    4/22 NYY15 ($4.8K)--10 ($5.6K)--
    4/21 SEA21.2 ($4.8K)--16 ($5.7K)--
    4/20 SEA3 ($4.9K)-12.82 ($5.6K)-9.6
    4/19 SEA22.2 ($4.9K)--16 ($5.7K)--
    4/18 SEA6.2 ($5K)-9.65 ($5.7K)-6.6
    4/17 @TEX12.2 ($5K)--9 ($5.6K)--
    4/16 @TEX3 ($5K)-12.83 ($5.7K)-8.6
    4/15 @TEX15.4 ($5K)--10 ($5.6K)--
    4/9 MIL9.2 ($5.1K)--8 ($5.6K)--
    4/8 MIL9.2 ($5.1K)--6 ($5.7K)--
    4/7 TEX31.2 ($5K)+15.422+10.4
    4/6 TEX38.2 ($5K)+22.426+14.4
    4/5 TEX37.4 ($5K)+21.628 ($5.6K)+16.4
    4/4 TEX24.7 ($5K)+8.919 ($5.8K)+7.4
    4/2 @SEA6 ($4.9K)-9.85 ($5.6K)-6.6
    4/1 @SEA6 ($4.9K)-9.84 ($5.6K)-7.6
    3/31 @OAK12 ($5K)--7--
    3/30 @OAK9.5 ($5K)--7 ($5.5K)--
    3/29 @OAK22.2 ($4.8K)--16 ($5.7K)--
    3/28 @OAK6 ($4.8K)-9.85 ($5.6K)-6.6