Critical Start/Sit Advice for Cole in Week 17

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WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Gerrit Cole is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #1 while his projection (rest of week 16) rank is #10. In week 17 rankings vs other starting pitchers instead of Cole consider these better options at lower start percentages: Justin Verlander (6.5 FP), Clayton Kershaw (11.8 FP), Max Scherzer (8.2 FP), David Price (4.8 FP), and Chris Sale (5.5 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 12.7 fantasy points (WK 17). Owners expect him to be the most productive starting pitcher of the week, but he is projected to be the #19 starting pitcher. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 8.1 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 4.6 which is less than his actual per game average (6.5).

He is projected for 4.6 fantasy points in week 17 (#19 SP) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
4.62 (#19) 
Wins 
 
0.45 (#58)
Losses 
 
0.23 (#29)
Quality Starts 
 
0.76 (#35)
Strikeouts 
 
7.52 (#44)
Innings 
 
6.16 (#57)
Walks 
 
1.97 (#62)

  • Based on 7/12 start %s the market values Gerrit Cole over Bauer and the projections agree.
  • Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21
    ----4.6 FP @LAA--------

    Gerrit Cole last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/6 vs LAA16 FP, 58 FD, 35 DK7 IP, 0 ER, 9 K, 3 HA, 2 BBI, WIN
    6/30 vs SEA15 FP, 58 FD, 34 DK7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 5 HA, 1 BBI
    6/25 vs PIT8 FP, 34 FD, 16 DK6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 7 HA, 2 BBI, LOSS
    6/19 @CIN3 FP, 43 FD, 22 DK6 IP, 1 ER, 8 K, 6 HA, 3 BBI
    6/14 vs TOR13 FP, 52 FD, 30 DK6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 3 HA, 2 BBI, WIN

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (7/12): Based on a projected 41.5 FanDuel points, Cole is fairly ranked. At $11400 he is expected to be the #1 pitcher. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Cole is worth $10.8K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 43.7 FPs, a value reached in 26 of 53 games (49%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 41%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 23.1 DraftKings points, Cole is fairly ranked. At $11500 he is expected to be the #1 pitcher. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $11.8K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 22.5 FPs, a value reached in 32 of 53 games (60%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 46%.

    Cole is in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He is not in the FanDuel optimal lineup but is.

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Based on ownership percentage (98%), Gerrit Cole has a market rank of #1 among starting pitchers. Our projections indicate that Gerrit Cole is slightly overrated by the market. His fantasy starting pitcher projection rank is #3. Of the 21 98% owned starting pitchers, he is ranked #3. He is projected for 85 fantasy points in 15 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#5) based on projected fantasy average. The market values Gerrit Cole over Bauer and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    85 (#3) 
    Wins 
    7 (#4) 
    Losses 
     
    4 (#114)
    Quality Starts12 (#2) 
     
    Strikeouts123 (#2) 
     
    Innings 
    91 (#5) 
    Walks 
     
    27 (#17)
    ERA 
     
    3.56 (#49)
    WHIP 
     
    1.07 (#16)

    He benefits from being on a winning team. His rank for projected wins is better than his ERA and WHIP rank.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 15 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 8.2 FPs in 7 of them. He had 7 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL8.2 FP per Week77
    Week 13 (1 games)-5.2
    Week 2-1.5 (1 games)-9.7
    Week 318.5 (2 games 9.2 per game)+10.3
    Week 4-16.7 (1 games)-24.9
    Week 52 (1 games)-6.2
    Week 618.5 (1 games)+10.3
    Week 723.8 (2 games 11.9 per game)+15.6
    Week 81.5 (1 games)-6.7
    Week 9-10.5 (1 games)-18.7
    Week 1019 (2 games 9.5 per game)+10.8
    Week 1111 (1 games)
    Week 1213 (1 games)+4.8
    Week 133 (1 games)-5.2
    Week 1422.5 (2 games 11.2 per game)+14.3
    Week 1516.5 (1 games)+8.3

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 44.2 points and on DraftKings it was 25.4 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 2.5 and on FanDuel it was 18 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was 38.8 and on FanDuel it was 61 FPs. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average), and an equal number of good and bad games on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All44.2 ($11.2K)0 G, 2 B25.4 ($11.1K)2 G, 2 B
    7/6 LAA58 ($11.5K)--34.8 ($11.1K)--
    6/30 SEA58 ($11.2K)--34.2 ($11.9K)--
    6/25 PIT34 ($11.5K)--16.1 ($11.5K)--
    6/19 @CIN43 ($12K)--22.1--
    6/14 TOR52 ($12K)--29.9 ($11.9K)--
    6/7 BAL64 ($11.2K)--38.8 ($12.2K)+13.4
    6/2 @OAK28 ($11.3K)--13.9--
    5/27 CHC58--35.1--
    5/22 CHW18 ($11.7K)-26.28.5 ($12K)-16.9
    5/17 @BOS36 ($10.5K)--21 ($10.7K)--
    5/11 TEX61 ($11K)--37.1 ($10.7K)--
    5/6 KC40 ($11.5K)--24 ($10.7K)--
    4/30 @MIN64 ($10.3K)--39.4 ($10.2K)+14
    4/25 CLE49 ($10.6K)--28.2 ($10.2K)--
    4/20 @TEX13 ($11.1K)-31.22.5 ($10.7K)-22.9
    4/14 @SEA55 ($10.8K)--33.1--
    4/9 NYY34 ($10.9K)--17.6 ($10.5K)--
    4/3 @TEX40 ($11.2K)--21.3 ($11.4K)--
    3/29 @TB49 ($11.3K)--28.5 ($11.2K)--