Valaika FanDuel Projection Provides Play and Fade Advice

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 2.7 FanDuel pts Patrick Valaika is the #44 ranked third baseman. At $2500 he is expected to be the #36 third baseman. Based on 7/12 salaries and projected points per dollar, Valaika is worth $0.9K. Marco Hernandez is also priced at $2500 and is a better option at this price. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Pablo Sandoval (6.5 FP), Gordon Beckham (5.4 FP), Donovan Solano (5.2 FP), Brad Miller (3 FP), and Rio Ruiz (7.7 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.1 FPs, a value reached in 18 of 94 games (19%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 43%.

  • 7/12 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: COL 6.1 (#2 Most Today) vs CIN 5.9 (#3 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 2.74 Fantasy Points (#43), 1.3 plate appearances (#43), 0.235 BA (#38), 0.668 OPS (#44), 0.03 HR (#44), 0.14 RBI (#44), 0.16 runs (#43), 0.01 stolen bases (#27),

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Valaika is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 2.1 DK pts (#55 among second basemen). At $3100 he is expected to be the #50 second baseman. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $1.2K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). There are 3 other options at $3100 (Dustin Pedroia, Garrett Hampson, Harold Castro) and Valaika is ranked #3 among the 4. Instead of Valaika consider these better options at lower salaries: Ian Kinsler (6.2 FP), Robinson Cano (6 FP), Eduardo Nunez (3.9 FP), Gordon Beckham (4.2 FP), and Starlin Castro (7.5 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.4 FPs, a value reached in 9 of 94 games (10%). The combined 'cover percentage' for second basemen expected to start is 38%.

Valaika is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 17 second basemen comparisons show he is projected for more points than 3 other second basemen starting in more leagues: Sean Rodriguez (1.9 FP), Logan Forsythe (5.1 FP), and Christian Arroyo (3.1 FP). Given he is starting in 0% of leagues there is no market expectation for any real fantasy production in week 17. His per game projected FP average is 2.6 which is better than his actual per game average (0).

He is projected for 5.5 fantasy points in week 17 (#47 2B) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
5.5 (#47) 
Avg0.256 (#37) 
 
OPS0.666 (#35) 
 
Home Runs 
0.28 (#43) 
Runs 
1.19 (#47) 
RBI 
1.05 (#48) 
Stolen Bases 
0.07 (#48) 

  • Based on 7/12 start %s the market values Sanchez over Patrick Valaika and the projections agree.
  • Jul 15Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21
    0.8 FP vs SF0.8 FP vs SF0.8 FP vs SF0.8 FP vs SF0.8 FP @NYY0.8 FP @NYY0.8 FP @NYY

    Patrick Valaika last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/5 @ARI0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/30 vs LAD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/29 vs LAD2 FP, 9 FD, 8 DK2-3, 1 R
    6/28 vs LAD8 FP, 25 FD, 19 DK2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R
    6/27 vs LAD2 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-0, 1 R, 1 BB

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among second basemen is #55. As of 7/12, Patrick Valaika is the #58 ranked second baseman based on ownership percentage (under 1%) and season fantasy rankings. With a lower market rank than projection rank, consider Patrick Valaika to be undervalued. Even though he is undervalued, he is not projected for more fantasy points than other second basemen with a better market ranking. He is projected for 53 fantasy points in 22 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #44 highest average. The market values Sanchez over Patrick Valaika and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    53 (#55) 
    Avg 
    0.239 (#53) 
    OPS0.719 (#42) 
     
    Home Runs3 (#42) 
     
    Runs 
    12 (#53) 
    RBI 
    10 (#53) 
    Stolen Bases1 (#46) 
     
    Strikeouts23 (#7) 
     

    His projected fantasy points is lower than you would like given his relatively strong OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 1.9 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL1.9 FP per Week24
    Week 22.5 (4 games 0.6 per game)
    Week 34 (4 games 1 per game)+2.1
    Week 4-2.5 (4 games -0.6 per game)-4.4
    Week 51 (1 games)
    Week 8-1 (1 games)-2.9
    Week 130 (3 games 0 per game)-1.9
    Week 1411 (5 games 2.2 per game)+9.1
    Week 150 (1 games)-1.9

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 3.4 FD points and 2.6 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 7 and 6.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All3.4 ($2.4K)6 G, 12 B2.6 ($3.3K)4 G, 10 B
    7/5 @ARI0 ($2K)-3.40 ($2.9K)-2.6
    6/30 LAD0 ($2.5K)-3.40-2.6
    6/29 LAD9.2 ($2.5K)+5.88 ($3K)+5.4
    6/28 LAD25.2 ($2.5K)+21.819 ($2.7K)+16.4
    6/27 LAD6.2 ($2.5K)+2.84 ($2.7K)+1.4
    6/24 @SF0 ($2.3K)-3.40 ($2.7K)-2.6
    6/23 @LAD0 ($2.2K)-3.40-2.6
    6/20 @ARI3 ($2K)--2 ($2.7K)--
    6/19 @ARI0 ($2K)-3.40 ($3.1K)-2.6
    5/14 @BOS0--0--
    4/22 WAS3 ($2.5K)--2 ($3.6K)--
    4/21 PHI0 ($2.5K)-3.40 ($3.6K)-2.6
    4/20 PHI0 ($2.7K)-3.40 ($3.1K)-2.6
    4/19 PHI0 ($2.8K)-3.40 ($3.6K)-2.6
    4/16 @SD0 ($2K)-3.40 ($3.5K)-2.6
    4/14 @SF3 ($2.1K)--2--
    4/11 @SF0 ($2.1K)-3.40 ($3.2K)-2.6
    4/9 ATL3 ($2.5K)--2 ($3.9K)--
    4/8 ATL9.2 ($2.5K)+5.87 ($4.1K)+4.4
    4/7 LAD6.2 ($2.5K)+2.85+2.4
    4/6 LAD0 ($2.5K)-3.40 ($3.8K)-2.6
    4/5 LAD6.2 ($2.5K)+2.84+1.4
    4/2 @TB0 ($2K)-3.40 ($3.7K)-2.6