MLB World Series and League Futures: Astros at the Top of the AL

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The percentage difference at the top of the AL is small at 1.7%. The New York Yankees at 28.9% trail the Houston Astros at 30.6%. The gap seems to be widening. The Yankees chances are down from 32.5 percent. A difference of 3.01 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros99.389.9%96.4%2/1 (33.3%)30.6%
New York Yankees99.281.6%95.5%3/2 (40%)28.9%
Minnesota Twins96.265.6%87.5%4/1 (20%)13.4%
Cleveland Indians93.834.4%67.8%10/1 (9.1%)9.0%
Tampa Bay Rays93.312.8%63.5%12/1 (7.7%)8.3%
Boston Red Sox90.35.6%35.3%15/1 (6.2%)5.0%
Oakland Athletics91.49.5%47.8%25/1 (3.8%)4.5%
Texas Rangers83.90.6%5.3%30/1 (3.2%)0.3%
Los Angeles Angels79.60.1%0.7%50/1 (2%)--
Chicago White Sox72.70.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--
Seattle Mariners70.30.1%0.1%1500/1 (0.1%)--
Toronto Blue Jays64.40.1%0.1%5000/1--
Kansas City Royals62.80.1%0.1%10000/1--
Baltimore Orioles53.30.1%0.1%10000/1--
Detroit Tigers53.20.1%0.1%10000/1--

There is a very large 32.7% gap between the Dodgers and the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs at 13% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 45.7%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Cubs chances are down from 20.6 percent. A difference of 1.72 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the NL with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers105.5100.0%100.0%6/5 (45.5%)45.7%
Chicago Cubs87.157.0%70.7%7/1 (12.5%)13.0%
Atlanta Braves90.157.7%90.0%6/1 (14.3%)11.8%
Washington Nationals88.836.7%77.4%9/1 (10%)11.7%
Milwaukee Brewers84.128.3%45.2%7/1 (12.5%)8.6%
Philadelphia Phillies82.45.4%29.6%12/1 (7.7%)3.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks82.80.1%30.5%50/1 (2%)2.8%
St Louis Cardinals80.08.4%16.4%10/1 (9.1%)1.2%
Colorado Rockies80.90.1%18.1%30/1 (3.2%)0.9%
Pittsburgh Pirates78.54.6%10.0%30/1 (3.2%)0.5%
San Diego Padres77.30.1%6.5%50/1 (2%)0.4%
Cincinnati Reds75.41.6%3.5%30/1 (3.2%)0.3%
New York Mets75.30.2%1.7%250/1 (0.4%)0.1%
San Francisco Giants71.40.1%0.3%250/1 (0.4%)--
Miami Marlins66.80.1%0.1%5000/1--

There are a lot of fanbases who should think that they have a shot at winning the World Series. There are 12 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Dodgers have a significant 14 percentage point lead over the Astros. The separation between the team with the #10 highest chances vs the #12 highest is 1.1 percentage points.

WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers3/125.0%29.3%--
Houston Astros4/120.0%15.6%DOWN
New York Yankees7/222.2%15.3%--
Chicago Cubs16/15.9%5.4%DOWN
Washington Nationals18/15.3%5.3%UP
Atlanta Braves14/16.7%5.3%DOWN
Minnesota Twins8/111.1%4.6%DOWN
Milwaukee Brewers16/15.9%3.9%DOWN
Cleveland Indians20/14.8%3.6%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%3.4%DOWN
Boston Red Sox30/13.2%2.6%DOWN
Oakland Athletics50/12.0%2.2%DOWN
Philadelphia Phillies25/13.8%1.2%DOWN
Arizona Diamondbacks100/11.0%1.1%DOWN