Rafael Devers Hamstring Tightens Up

SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

Rafael Devers was removed early from yesterday’s game after he felt hamstring tightness in the fifth inning. He does not expect it to be serious, and thinks he could be available to play in their next game tomorrow. Eduardo Nunez took over for him at third base, I would keep an eye on Devers to see if he hits the IL because that would be the only reason to look at Nunez in fantasy.

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Rafael Devers is projected to be the #6 rated player of 8 third basemen who are owned in 100% of leagues. Using actual fantasy production and current start percentage as the first and second tie-breaker, his market rank is #2. He can be considered overvalued and expect his ranking among 100% owned third basemen to go down. He is projected for 204 fantasy points in 64 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#10) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Rafael Devers behind Rendon and above Arenado but the projections rank Arenado over Rafael Devers.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
204 (#6) 
Avg 
0.292 (#5) 
OPS 
0.834 (#10) 
Home Runs 
11 (#10) 
Runs 
42 (#6) 
RBI42 (#3) 
 
Stolen Bases4 (#2) 
 
Strikeouts 
 
52 (#34)

His value comes in the form of stolen bases which can make him more valuable in certain leagues (rotisserie, higher points per SB).

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among third basemans for week 17 is #4, which is less than his market rank of #2. When compared to other third basemen in week 17 these are 3 better options at lower start percentages: Nolan Arenado (27 FP), Jose Ramirez (24 FP), and Alex Bregman (25 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 24.9 fantasy points (WK 17). Owners expect him to be the most productive third baseman of the week, but he is projected to be the #4 third baseman.

Lower Start%R. Devers WK 17Higher Start%
N. Arenado (27 FP)24 FPA. Rendon (24 FP)
J. Ramirez (24 FP)#2 Third Base 
A. Bregman (25 FP) 
 

He is projected for 24.4 fantasy points in week 17 (#4 3B) in 7 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
24.41 (#4) 
Avg0.326 (#2) 
 
OPS0.869 (#3) 
 
Home Runs 
1.3 (#6) 
Runs4.92 (#1) 
 
RBI5.07 (#2) 
 
Stolen Bases0.53 (#2) 
 

  • Based on 7/15 start percentages, Rafael Devers is valued behind Rendon and above Arenado but the projections rank Arenado over Rafael Devers in week 17.
  • Jul 15Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul 20Jul 21
    3.4 FP vs TOR3.8 FP vs TOR3.1 FP vs TOR3.4 FP vs TOR3.1 FP @BAL3.9 FP @BAL3.6 FP @BAL

    Rafael Devers last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/14 vs LAD2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-5, 1 BB
    7/13 vs LAD1 FP, 3 FD, 3 DK1-3
    7/12 vs LAD10 FP, 34 FD, 25 DK2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 1 BB
    7/7 @DET0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-5
    7/6 @DET3 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-6, 1 RBI, 1 R

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (7/15): Devers is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 9.3 DK pts (#6 among third basemen). At $5500 he is expected to be the #1 third baseman. Based on the projection, Devers is worth $4.5K. Instead of Devers consider these better options at lower salaries: Evan Longoria (16.6 FP), Nolan Arenado (17.4 FP), Jose Ramirez (9.8 FP), Yoan Moncada (10.1 FP), and Alex Bregman (9.9 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 11.4 FPs, a value reached in 68 of 222 games (31%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 32%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Devers is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 12.4 FD pts (#6 among third basemen). At $4100 he is expected to be the #2 third baseman. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.6K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). These are 4 better options at lower salaries: Pablo Sandoval (14 FP), Evan Longoria (21.8 FP), Jose Ramirez (12.9 FP), and Yoan Moncada (13.2 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 14.1 FPs, a value reached in 68 of 222 games (31%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 35%.

    Devers is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 21 fantasy points per week and had 3 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 2 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL21 FP per Week32
    Week 112.5 (4 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 26 (7 games 0.9 per game)-15.1
    Week 312 (5 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 414 (6 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 515 (6 games 2.5 per game)
    Week 636.5 (7 games 5.2 per game)+15.4
    Week 730 (6 games 5 per game)
    Week 86 (5 games 1.2 per game)-15.1
    Week 942.5 (6 games 7.1 per game)+21.4
    Week 1014.5 (6 games 2.4 per game)
    Week 1122.5 (6 games 3.8 per game)
    Week 1230 (7 games 4.3 per game)
    Week 1313 (5 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 1428.5 (5 games 5.7 per game)
    Week 1542 (6 games 7 per game)+20.9
    Week 1613 (3 games 4.3 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 13.4 points and on DraftKings it was 10.9 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 20 and 28.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All13.4 ($3.5K)22 G, 35 B10.9 ($4.6K)16 G, 23 B
    7/14 LAD6 ($4.2K)-7.45-5.9
    7/13 LAD3 ($4.3K)-10.43 ($5.6K)-7.9
    7/12 LAD34.4 ($4.3K)+2125 ($5.2K)+14.1
    7/7 @DET0 ($4.4K)-13.40 ($5.6K)-10.9
    7/6 @DET9.7 ($4.5K)--7 ($5.6K)--
    7/5 @DET31.4 ($4.3K)+1822 ($5.5K)+11.1
    7/4 @TOR30.9 ($4.3K)+17.523 ($5.3K)+12.1
    7/3 @TOR10 ($4.1K)--7 ($4.7K)--
    7/2 @TOR57.4 ($4K)+4442 ($4.9K)+31.1
    6/30 NYY6.2 ($3.9K)-7.25-5.9
    6/29 NYY18.7 ($3.9K)--14 ($5.1K)--
    6/26 CHW21.6 ($3.7K)+8.217 ($5.3K)+6.1
    6/25 CHW30.9 ($3.6K)+17.524 ($5.4K)+13.1
    6/24 CHW12.2 ($3.5K)--9 ($4.6K)--
    6/22 TOR0--0--
    6/21 TOR6.5--5--
    6/19 @MIN9.2 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.4K)--
    6/18 @MIN28.2 ($4K)+14.824 ($4.8K)+13.1
    6/17 @MIN0 ($3.9K)-13.40 ($4.4K)-10.9
    6/16 @BAL24.9 ($3.9K)+11.519 ($5.1K)+8.1
    6/15 @BAL12.4 ($3.9K)--10--
    6/14 @BAL12 ($3.9K)--11 ($5K)--
    6/13 TEX18.7--14--
    6/12 TEX12.5 ($3.8K)--12 ($4.1K)--
    6/11 TEX16 ($3.9K)--12 ($5.1K)--
    6/10 TEX0 ($3.9K)-13.40 ($4.3K)-10.9
    6/8 TB0 ($4.1K)-13.40-10.9
    6/8 TB0 ($4.1K)-13.40-10.9
    6/7 TB0 ($4.1K)-13.40 ($5.1K)-10.9
    6/6 @KC19.2 ($3.9K)--13--
    6/5 @KC44.1 ($3.9K)+30.730 ($5.3K)+19.1
    6/4 @KC22.4 ($3.7K)+915 ($5K)--
    6/2 @NYY9.7 ($3.8K)--7--
    6/1 @NYY0 ($3.9K)-13.40 ($5K)-10.9
    5/31 @NYY18.7 ($3.9K)--14 ($4.9K)--
    5/29 CLE3 ($4K)-10.43 ($5K)-7.9
    5/28 CLE15.2 ($4K)--13 ($5.6K)--
    5/27 CLE12.7--9--
    5/26 @HOU27.7 ($3.8K)+14.320 ($4.2K)+9.1
    5/25 @HOU15.2 ($4K)--13 ($4.5K)--
    5/23 @TOR22.4 ($3.5K)+916 ($5K)--
    5/22 @TOR18.7 ($3.3K)--14 ($4.9K)--
    5/21 @TOR24.7 ($3.1K)+11.319 ($4.3K)+8.1
    5/20 @TOR40.9 ($3.2K)+27.529+18.1
    5/19 HOU3 ($3.3K)-10.43 ($4.3K)-7.9
    5/18 HOU0 ($3.4K)-13.40 ($4.7K)-10.9
    5/17 HOU0 ($3.3K)-13.40 ($4.2K)-10.9
    5/15 COL3 ($3.5K)-10.42 ($4.5K)-8.9
    5/14 COL21.9 ($3.5K)+8.516 ($4.8K)--
    5/12 SEA21.9 ($3.4K)+8.517 ($4.5K)+6.1
    5/11 SEA28.2 ($3.4K)+14.820 ($4.5K)+9.1
    5/10 SEA38.2 ($3.3K)+24.828 ($4.3K)+17.1
    5/8 @BAL6 ($3.5K)-7.48 ($4.8K)--
    5/7 @BAL6 ($3.7K)-7.45 ($4.7K)-5.9
    5/6 @BAL0 ($3.7K)-13.40 ($4.9K)-10.9
    5/5 @CHW15.4 ($3.5K)--12 ($4.4K)--
    5/4 @CHW21.9 ($3.2K)+8.516 ($4.1K)--
    5/3 @CHW31.9 ($3.4K)+18.523 ($4.2K)+12.1
    5/2 @CHW10 ($3.3K)--6 ($4.4K)--
    5/1 OAK12.4 ($3.3K)--10 ($4.1K)--
    4/30 OAK9.5 ($3.1K)--7 ($4.1K)--
    4/29 OAK24.4 ($3.2K)+1117 ($4K)+6.1
    4/28 TB6 ($3.1K)-7.46 ($3.8K)--
    4/27 TB6 ($3.2K)-7.45 ($3.8K)-5.9
    4/25 DET16 ($2.8K)--12 ($3.8K)--
    4/24 DET16.2 ($3K)--13 ($4.2K)--
    4/23 DET3 ($3K)-10.42 ($4.1K)-8.9
    4/23 DET3 ($3K)-10.43 ($4.1K)-7.9
    4/21 @TB18.2 ($2.8K)--14 ($3.4K)--
    4/20 @TB6 ($2.8K)-7.45 ($3.5K)-5.9
    4/19 @TB12.7 ($2.8K)--9 ($3.7K)--
    4/17 @NYY12 ($3K)--9--
    4/16 @NYY3 ($3.1K)-10.42-8.9
    4/15 BAL6 ($3.4K)-7.45-5.9
    4/14 BAL0 ($3K)-13.40 ($4.3K)-10.9
    4/13 BAL12.4 ($3.5K)--9--
    4/12 BAL0 ($3.1K)-13.40 ($4.2K)-10.9
    4/11 TOR22.2 ($3.1K)+8.816 ($3.9K)--
    4/9 TOR6 ($3.2K)-7.46--
    4/7 @ARI3 ($3.5K)-10.42-8.9
    4/6 @ARI9.2 ($3.2K)--7 ($4.5K)--
    4/5 @ARI6.2 ($2.9K)-7.25 ($4.4K)-5.9
    4/4 @OAK0 ($3K)-13.40-10.9
    4/3 @OAK3.2 ($3.3K)-10.22 ($4.1K)-8.9
    4/2 @OAK3 ($3.4K)-10.43 ($4.1K)-7.9
    4/1 @OAK3 ($3.1K)-10.42 ($4.5K)-8.9
    3/31 @SEA15.4 ($3K)--12--
    3/30 @SEA18.2 ($3.1K)--13 ($3.8K)--
    3/29 @SEA12.2 ($3K)--9 ($4K)--
    3/28 @SEA3 ($3.1K)-10.43-7.9