Does Reed's Latest FanDuel Projection Justify His $2.1K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

There are 11 other options at $2100 (Martin Prado, Austin Romine, Jonathan Lucroy, Max Stassi, Sandy Leon, Yadiel Rivera, Elias Diaz, Austin Hedges, Spencer Kieboom, Jacob Stallings, Isiah Kiner-Falefa) and Reed is the best option of these 12. Albert Pujols (8.6 FP), Miguel Cabrera (8.8 FP), Robinson Chirinos (6.7 FP), Russell Martin (4.2 FP), and Howie Kendrick (8.5 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Reed but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 3.8 FPs but have yet to have that many points in 4 games.

  • 7/16 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: CHW 5.4 (#9 Most Today) vs KC 5.1 (#13 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 8.95 Fantasy Points (#32), 3.59 plate appearances (#30), 0.283 BA (#35), 0.822 OPS (#45), 0.15 HR (#30), 0.49 RBI (#37), 0.45 runs (#35), 0.02 stolen bases (#15),

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: A.J. Reed is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 6.8 DK pts (#35 among first basemen). At $3700 he is expected to be the #44 first basemen. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.7K. There are many other options (8) at $3700 and Reed is ranked #6 among the 9. Instead of Reed consider these better options at lower salaries: Joey Votto (7.8 FP), Mark Reynolds (7.8 FP), Jake Lamb (7.2 FP), and Bobby Bradley (8.4 FP). Howie Kendrick (6.4 FP), Pablo Sandoval (5.2 FP), Jay Bruce (6.1 FP), David Freese (3.7 FP), and Charlie Culberson (2.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Reed but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.9 FPs but have yet to have that many points in 4 games.

Reed is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

In week 18 rankings vs other 1B/DHs, Neil Walker (12.1 FP), Brandon Belt (12.8 FP), Christian Walker (9 FP), John Hicks (3.9 FP), and Tyler White (9.2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Reed but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 1% of leagues he is expected to produce 9.7 fantasy points (WK 18). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #49 1B/DH of week 18. He is projected to be better than that (the #41 1B/DH). His per game projected FP average is 2.4 which is better than his actual per game average (-0.2). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

He is projected for 13.2 fantasy points in week 18 (#41 1B/DH) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
13.24 (#41) 
Avg0.255 (#32) 
 
OPS 
0.689 (#38) 
Home Runs 
0.87 (#34) 
Runs 
2.55 (#36) 
RBI 
2.81 (#35) 
Stolen Bases0.12 (#18) 
 

  • Based on 7/16 start percentages, A.J. Reed is valued behind Walker and above Osuna but the projections rank A.J. Reed over Walker in week 18.
  • Jul 22Jul 23Jul 24Jul 25Jul 26Jul 27Jul 28
    2 FP vs MIA1.8 FP vs MIA1.7 FP vs MIA1.7 FP vs MIN1.9 FP vs MIN2.1 FP vs MIN2 FP vs MIN

    A.J. Reed last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    --
    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/15 @KC-2 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    7/13 @OAK0 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-3, 1 BB
    7/12 @OAK1 FP, 3 FD, 3 DK1-4
    6/29 @TB0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    As of 7/16, A.J. Reed is the #52 ranked 1B/DH based on ownership percentage (3%). Our projections indicate that A.J. Reed is underrated by the market. His fantasy 1B/DH projection rank is #42. There could be an opportunity to acquire him while the market is still not as high on them as the projections are. Unless someone offers an even better 1B/DH value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for 141 fantasy points in 58 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#54) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks A.J. Reed behind Walker and above Trumbo but the projections rank A.J. Reed over Walker.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    141 (#42) 
    Avg 
    0.256 (#35) 
    OPS 
    0.757 (#47) 
    Home Runs9 (#33) 
     
    Runs 
    27 (#37) 
    RBI 
    30 (#38) 
    Stolen Bases1 (#14) 
     
    Strikeouts 
    60 (#46) 

    His value increases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative strengths than weaknesses.