Lambert Rest of Season Fantasy Value: Expectations vs Projection

REST OF SEASON VALUE

As of 7/16, Peter Lambert is the #108 ranked starting pitcher based on ownership percentage (12%). Peter Lambert's market rank is better than our current projections indicate. His fantasy starting pitcher projection rank is #118. He is projected for -10 fantasy points in 13 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #159 highest average. The market ranks Peter Lambert behind Manaea and above Loaisiga but the projections rank Loaisiga over Peter Lambert.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
-10 (#167) 
Wins5 (#42) 
 
Losses4 (#125) 
 
Quality Starts5 (#85) 
 
Strikeouts51 (#112) 
 
Innings68 (#87) 
 
Walks18 (#92) 
 
ERA 
4.76 (#160) 
WHIP 
1.38 (#163) 

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Based on start%, Agrazal is expected to produce more fantasy points than Peter Lambert but the projections say otherwise. Rodriguez is the player that the market has ranked 1 spot below Peter Lambert but the projections have Rodriguez putting up more fantasy points. He is starting in just 3% of leagues and with a projected starting pitcher rank of #101 in week 18 it makes sense that he is not starting in many leagues.

He is projected for -1.4 fantasy points in week 18 (#144 SP) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
-1.36 (#144) 
Wins0.64 (#22) 
 
Losses0.6 (#134) 
 
Quality Starts0.79 (#32) 
 
Strikeouts7.33 (#41) 
 
Innings11.06 (#20) 
 
Walks2.54 (#37) 
 

  • Based on 7/16 start percentages, Peter Lambert is valued behind Agrazal and above Rodriguez
  • Peter Lambert last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/3 vs HOU-11 FP, 9 FD, 2 DK5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 5 HA, 3 BBI, WIN
    6/27 vs LAD-8 FP, 5 FD, -1 DK4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K, 9 HA, 0 BBI, WIN
    6/22 @LAD-6 FP, 9 FD, 2 DK5 IP, 3 ER, 1 K, 7 HA, 1 BBI
    6/16 vs SD-12 FP, -6 FD, -9 DK3 IP, 8 ER, 3 K, 9 HA, 0 BBI
    6/11 vs CHC6 FP, 27 FD, 15 DK5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 3 HA, 2 BBI

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (7/16): Lambert is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 22.9 FD pts (#17 among pitchers). He is the #16 highest priced pitcher ($5500). Based on the projection, Lambert is worth $6.4K. Alec Mills is also priced at $5500 and is a better option at this price. Based on salary, he is expected to have 19.7 FPs, a value reached in 2 of 6 games (33%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 42%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 11.1 DraftKings points, Lambert is fairly ranked. At $4900 he is expected to be the #17 pitcher. Based on 7/16 salaries and projected points per dollar, Lambert is worth $6.4K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.5 FPs, a value reached in 2 of 6 games (33%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 44%.

    Lambert is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged -3.3 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he came up short (under 50% of average) and just one week where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL-3.3 FP per Week14
    Week 1115.5 (1 games)+18.8
    Week 12-7 (2 games -3.5 per game)-3.7
    Week 13-5.5 (1 games)-2.2
    Week 14-8.3 (1 games)-5.1
    Week 15-11 (1 games)-7.7

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 16.5 FD points and 4.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 1000 and on FanDuel it was 1000 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was -1000 and on FanDuel it was -1000 FPs. He has had an equal number of good (20% above average) and bad games (20% below) on FanDuel, while on DraftKings he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All16.5 ($6.1K)2 G, 2 B4.8 ($5.3K)1 G, 1 B
    7/3 HOU9 ($5.5K)--2.4 ($5.3K)--
    6/27 LAD5 ($5.8K)-11.5-0.9 ($4.7K)-5.7
    6/22 @LAD9 ($6.9K)--2.5 ($5.5K)--
    6/16 SD-6 ($6.3K)-22.5-8.6-13.4
    6/11 CHC27 ($6.7K)+10.515 ($5.6K)+10.2
    6/6 @CHC55 ($5.5K)+38.532.8+28