NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The Indians next 10 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road GameJUL 19LIKELY WIN75% KC--JUL 20LIKELY WIN66% KC--JUL 21LIKELY WIN69% KC--JUL 22CLOSE GAME60% @TOR189 milesJUL 23LIKELY WIN62% @TOR-- milesJUL 24CLOSE GAME59% @TOR-- milesJUL 25CLOSE GAME55% @KC844 milesJUL 26LIKELY WIN67% @KC-- milesJUL 27LIKELY WIN64% @KC-- milesJUL 28CLOSE GAME59% @KC-- miles
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (24% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 23%. Their chances of winning their next 10 are 1%. At #4 in the league, they are behind the Twins by 4 points. They have a +0.83 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Athletics by half a point. With a +0.69 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Indians are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Indians are playing 14 games, traveling 6694 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Cleveland Indians' next game. They are -273 favorites and there is slight value on them to win. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 55-40 the Indians are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 54.6 wins. They have 33 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 27 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game, or a 5+ final margin). They have won 56% of their road games and were expected to win 54%. At home they have a 60% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 11-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 9.4 wins. The Indians are a good team (in simulations) and won 57% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#6 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 4/14 they were at 49.3%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #15 winning 50.8%.
Their record is better than it should be. Their average run differential is +0.42 which ranks #7 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #4. They are the #7 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #6 ranked team among home teams. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is +3.11 (#2 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 95 Games||4.6 (#10)||0.246 (#11)||0.593 (#11)|
|Road||4.6 (#10)||0.250 (#7)||0.585 (#10)|
|Home||4.6 (#11)||0.241 (#12)||0.604 (#10)|
|Last 9 Games||6.2 (#5)||0.292 (#3)||0.742 (#5)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.1 (#2)||0.238 (#3)||0.601 (#6)|
|Road||4.2 (#2)||0.240 (#3||0.593 (#4)|
|Home||4.1 (#5)||0.236 (#5)||0.608 (#9)|
|Last 9 Games||3.1 (#3)||0.211 (#1)||0.531 (#1)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Indians are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 4.3% chance of winning it all. On 3/24 they had a 5.2% chance before dropping to 0.1% on 5/28. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 3.6%. Before the start of their 5 game winning streak they were at 2.7%. They have a 38.4% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 72% chance of making the playoffs. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the AL (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they make the World Series 9.4% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #16 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #2 Easiest
Indians' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||AL Champ||MLB Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Francisco Lindor||3.3||100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #4)|
|Carlos Santana||3.2||99% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #9)|
|Brad Hand||2||97% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)|
|Jose Ramirez||3.4||100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #8)|
|Jordan Luplow||2.9||3% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #111)|
|Shane Bieber||3.9||98% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #5)|