MLB World Series and League Futures: Dodgers Moving Up

There is a very large 20.2% gap between the Astros and the Yankees. The New York Yankees at 24.4% trail the Houston Astros at 44.6%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Yankees chances are down from 32.4 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #6 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the AL with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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Houston Astros108.499.9%100.0%5/8 (61.5%)44.6%
New York Yankees102.797.0%99.6%11/4 (26.7%)24.4%
Cleveland Indians98.659.2%92.2%7/1 (12.5%)13.8%
Minnesota Twins97.740.8%90.4%9/1 (10%)10.8%
Tampa Bay Rays94.72.9%62.5%12/1 (7.7%)4.1%
Oakland Athletics93.80.1%54.6%20/1 (4.8%)2.2%
Boston Red Sox85.30.0%0.8%50/1 (2%)--
Texas Rangers78.60.0%0.0%150/1 (0.7%)--
Los Angeles Angels74.90.0%0.0%1500/1 (0.1%)--
Chicago White Sox71.20.0%0.0%5000/1--
Toronto Blue Jays68.70.0%0.0%10000/1--
Seattle Mariners66.20.0%0.0%10000/1--
Kansas City Royals62.10.0%0.0%----
Baltimore Orioles53.70.0%0.0%----
Detroit Tigers47.60.0%0.0%----

There is a huge 26.9% gap between NL leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 46.2 percent chance of winning the NL and the Chicago Cubs are at 19.3%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Dodgers chances are down from 49.8 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.93 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best NL record. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

Los Angeles Dodgers106.2100.0%100.0%5/9 (64.3%)46.2%
Chicago Cubs89.368.8%85.1%7/1 (12.5%)19.3%
Atlanta Braves92.377.1%97.5%9/2 (18.2%)12.9%
Washington Nationals88.519.2%75.1%20/1 (4.8%)9.2%
Milwaukee Brewers85.217.4%47.0%15/1 (6.2%)6.9%
St Louis Cardinals84.213.5%37.6%15/1 (6.2%)2.3%
New York Mets83.32.5%22.5%15/1 (6.2%)1.3%
Philadelphia Phillies82.31.2%15.7%40/1 (2.4%)1.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks82.30.0%15.3%50/1 (2%)0.6%
San Francisco Giants78.70.0%2.8%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Cincinnati Reds76.90.2%1.1%50/1 (2%)--
San Diego Padres74.40.0%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Colorado Rockies73.10.0%0.0%2500/1--
Pittsburgh Pirates68.10.0%0.0%10000/1--
Miami Marlins61.00.0%0.0%25000/1--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season one playoff team. There are 9 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Dodgers have a 27 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 1 percentage points behind the Astros. At the bottom of the contenders list, 1.6 percentage points separate the Twins from the Brewers.

Houston Astros2/133.3%28.1%UP
Los Angeles Dodgers5/228.6%27.4%DOWN
New York Yankees6/114.3%11.3%DOWN
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%7.4%--
Cleveland Indians16/15.9%6.0%DOWN
Atlanta Braves10/19.1%5.2%DOWN
Minnesota Twins18/15.3%4.3%DOWN
Washington Nationals40/12.4%3.3%DOWN
Milwaukee Brewers30/13.2%2.7%DOWN
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%1.6%DOWN