MLB Outlook: The Cincinnati Reds are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Padres and Behind the Giants in the NL

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 3 teams who have 100/1, 1% odds to win the World Series. They do not have any real chance to win the championship. They are not a good value to win the NL either at 50/1, 2%. They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 79. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 121 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 57-64 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (-764 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (65-56) for a +360 profit. Their under-over record is 68-48 with 5 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 37% chance to beat the Cardinals in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
8/17 STL37%12-20, -69715-16-1
8/18 STL43%12-20, -69715-16-1
8/19 SD43%6-5, +926-5
8/20 SD59%6-5, +926-5
8/21 SD52%6-5, +926-5

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.15 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #6 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #9 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.85 (#12 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 121 Games4.6 (#11)0.250 (#9)0.626 (#6)
Road4.4 (#12)0.242 (#11)0.592 (#11)
Home4.7 (#11)0.257 (#8)0.660 (#6)
Last 13 Games5.2 (#7)0.277 (#5)0.723 (#5)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.4 (#3)0.243 (#4)0.613 (#7)
Road4.2 (#1)0.245 (#40.625 (#10)
Home4.6 (#7)0.242 (#6)0.603 (#7)
Last 13 Games6.1 (#12)0.271 (#10)0.788 (#13)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Eugenio Suarez who is projected to be the #8 third baseman the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Eugenio Suarez998Rafael DeversJustin Turner
Josh VanMeter2513Paul DeJongJurickson Profar
Tucker Barnhart1913Brian McCannKurt Suzuki
Luis Castillo9714Corey KluberKyle Hendricks
Nick Senzel8015Cesar HernandezCavan Biggio
Joey Votto9020Hunter DozierDaniel Vogelbach
Raisel Iglesias8421Alex ColomeMark Melancon
Jose Iglesias924Willy AdamesJ.P. Crawford
Jose Peraza2428Bo BichetteAustin Nola
Sonny Gray9532Kenta MaedaCarlos Carrasco