SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
There are 3 teams who have 100/1, 1% odds to win the World Series. They do not have any real chance to win the championship. They are not a good value to win the NL either at 50/1, 2%. They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 79. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
After 121 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 57-64 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (-764 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (65-56) for a +360 profit. Their under-over record is 68-48 with 5 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 37% chance to beat the Cardinals in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|8/17 STL||37%||12-20, -697||15-16-1|
|8/18 STL||43%||12-20, -697||15-16-1|
|8/19 SD||43%||6-5, +92||6-5|
|8/20 SD||59%||6-5, +92||6-5|
|8/21 SD||52%||6-5, +92||6-5|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be better. Their average run differential is +0.15 which ranks #7 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #11. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #6 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #9 in home games. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.85 (#12 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 121 Games||4.6 (#11)||0.250 (#9)||0.626 (#6)|
|Road||4.4 (#12)||0.242 (#11)||0.592 (#11)|
|Home||4.7 (#11)||0.257 (#8)||0.660 (#6)|
|Last 13 Games||5.2 (#7)||0.277 (#5)||0.723 (#5)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.4 (#3)||0.243 (#4)||0.613 (#7)|
|Road||4.2 (#1)||0.245 (#4||0.625 (#10)|
|Home||4.6 (#7)||0.242 (#6)||0.603 (#7)|
|Last 13 Games||6.1 (#12)||0.271 (#10)||0.788 (#13)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Eugenio Suarez who is projected to be the #8 third baseman the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Eugenio Suarez||99||8||Rafael Devers||Justin Turner|
|Josh VanMeter||25||13||Paul DeJong||Jurickson Profar|
|Tucker Barnhart||19||13||Brian McCann||Kurt Suzuki|
|Luis Castillo||97||14||Corey Kluber||Kyle Hendricks|
|Nick Senzel||80||15||Cesar Hernandez||Cavan Biggio|
|Joey Votto||90||20||Hunter Dozier||Daniel Vogelbach|
|Raisel Iglesias||84||21||Alex Colome||Mark Melancon|
|Jose Iglesias||9||24||Willy Adames||J.P. Crawford|
|Jose Peraza||24||28||Bo Bichette||Austin Nola|
|Sonny Gray||95||32||Kenta Maeda||Carlos Carrasco|