SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Oddsmakers have the Astros as the favorite to win the World Series. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Astros would be a good betting value. Their 28% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. In simulations, they win the AL 45.8% of the time and are not a good value at 5/8, 61.5%. They are projected to win 105 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs and to win the division. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL.
For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all MLB games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.
REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 76.5-46.5. At 78-45 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (-254 units). They are 65-58 against the spread for a +75 profit. Their under-over record is 66-55 with 2 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 48% chance to beat the Athletics in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|8/17 OAK||48%||21-11, +128||17-13-2|
|8/18 OAK||47%||21-11, +128||17-13-2|
|8/19 DET||92%||8-1, +228||5-3-1|
|8/20 DET||82%||8-1, +228||5-3-1|
|8/21 DET||89%||8-1, +228||5-3-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.46 which ranks #1 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +3.58.
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 123 Games||5.5 (#4)||0.273 (#2)||0.637 (#5)|
|Road||5.5 (#4)||0.268 (#3)||0.632 (#6)|
|Home||5.5 (#3)||0.280 (#2)||0.643 (#5)|
|Last 12 Games||7.8 (#1)||0.298 (#2)||0.752 (#5)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||4.0 (#3)||0.221 (#1)||0.573 (#3)|
|Road||4.2 (#3)||0.227 (#1||0.569 (#1)|
|Home||3.8 (#1)||0.214 (#1)||0.579 (#4)|
|Last 12 Games||4.2 (#5)||0.243 (#5)||0.558 (#2)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jose Altuve who is projected to be the #1 second baseman the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Jose Altuve||100||1||--||DJ LeMahieu|
|Roberto Osuna||96||1||--||Liam Hendriks|
|Justin Verlander||98||2||Max Scherzer||Gerrit Cole|
|Gerrit Cole||98||3||Justin Verlander||Jacob deGrom|
|Alex Bregman||100||4||Nolan Arenado||Kris Bryant|
|Carlos Correa||99||4||Xander Bogaerts||Jorge Polanco|
|George Springer||100||5||Charlie Blackmon||Ronald Acuna|
|Robinson Chirinos||74||10||Welington Castillo||Omar Narvaez|
|Yulieski Gurriel||99||11||Pete Alonso||Max Muncy|
|Zack Greinke||98||12||Michael Clevinger||Corey Kluber|