MLB Outlook: The Houston Astros are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Yankees in the AL

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Oddsmakers have the Astros as the favorite to win the World Series. If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Astros would be a good betting value. Their 28% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. In simulations, they win the AL 45.8% of the time and are not a good value at 5/8, 61.5%. They are projected to win 105 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs and to win the division. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 76.5-46.5. At 78-45 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (-254 units). They are 65-58 against the spread for a +75 profit. Their under-over record is 66-55 with 2 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 48% chance to beat the Athletics in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
8/17 OAK48%21-11, +12817-13-2
8/18 OAK47%21-11, +12817-13-2
8/19 DET92%8-1, +2285-3-1
8/20 DET82%8-1, +2285-3-1
8/21 DET89%8-1, +2285-3-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Their average run differential is +1.46 which ranks #1 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 12 games is +3.58.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 123 Games5.5 (#4)0.273 (#2)0.637 (#5)
Road5.5 (#4)0.268 (#3)0.632 (#6)
Home5.5 (#3)0.280 (#2)0.643 (#5)
Last 12 Games7.8 (#1)0.298 (#2)0.752 (#5)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.0 (#3)0.221 (#1)0.573 (#3)
Road4.2 (#3)0.227 (#10.569 (#1)
Home3.8 (#1)0.214 (#1)0.579 (#4)
Last 12 Games4.2 (#5)0.243 (#5)0.558 (#2)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jose Altuve who is projected to be the #1 second baseman the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Jose Altuve1001--DJ LeMahieu
Roberto Osuna961--Liam Hendriks
Justin Verlander982Max ScherzerGerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole983Justin VerlanderJacob deGrom
Alex Bregman1004Nolan ArenadoKris Bryant
Carlos Correa994Xander BogaertsJorge Polanco
George Springer1005Charlie BlackmonRonald Acuna
Robinson Chirinos7410Welington CastilloOmar Narvaez
Yulieski Gurriel9911Pete AlonsoMax Muncy
Zack Greinke9812Michael ClevingerCorey Kluber