MLB World Series and League Futures: Astros Chances are Rising

There is a very large 23% gap between the Astros and the Yankees. The New York Yankees at 22.7% trail the Houston Astros at 45.8%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Yankees chances are down from 32.4 percent. A difference of 1.6 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the AL with just 4 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros105.399.0%100.0%5/8 (61.5%)45.8%
New York Yankees103.199.2%99.8%11/4 (26.7%)22.7%
Minnesota Twins98.951.7%94.8%9/1 (10%)12.7%
Cleveland Indians98.548.3%91.8%7/1 (12.5%)12.6%
Oakland Athletics94.91.0%69.6%20/1 (4.8%)3.3%
Tampa Bay Rays93.30.8%41.4%12/1 (7.7%)2.9%
Boston Red Sox87.90.0%2.6%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Texas Rangers78.70.0%0.0%150/1 (0.7%)--
Los Angeles Angels73.50.0%0.0%1500/1 (0.1%)--
Chicago White Sox72.60.0%0.0%5000/1--
Toronto Blue Jays69.70.0%0.0%10000/1--
Seattle Mariners65.90.0%0.0%10000/1--
Kansas City Royals61.60.0%0.0%----
Baltimore Orioles52.00.0%0.0%----
Detroit Tigers48.70.0%0.0%----

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 32%. The Chicago Cubs at 15.1% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 47.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Cubs chances are down from 19.4 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only -1.24 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best NL record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the NL with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers107.5100.0%100.0%5/9 (64.3%)47.1%
Chicago Cubs87.349.2%67.5%7/1 (12.5%)15.1%
Atlanta Braves91.564.8%96.8%9/2 (18.2%)13.5%
Washington Nationals89.530.4%85.3%20/1 (4.8%)10.3%
Milwaukee Brewers84.718.9%38.4%15/1 (6.2%)5.7%
St Louis Cardinals86.031.7%53.5%15/1 (6.2%)3.6%
Philadelphia Phillies84.84.2%39.0%40/1 (2.4%)3.4%
New York Mets81.50.6%9.4%15/1 (6.2%)0.7%
San Francisco Giants79.50.0%3.5%100/1 (1%)0.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks80.90.0%6.1%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Cincinnati Reds75.10.1%0.2%50/1 (2%)--
San Diego Padres74.10.0%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Colorado Rockies74.10.0%0.0%2500/1--
Pittsburgh Pirates68.20.0%0.0%10000/1--
Miami Marlins60.70.0%0.0%25000/1--

All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the World Series, but only 9 really do with at least a two percent chance. At the top, the Dodgers have a 0 percentage point lead over the Astros. At the bottom of the contenders list, 2.8 percentage points separate the Twins from the Brewers.

WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers5/228.6%28.2%--
Houston Astros2/133.3%28.0%UP
New York Yankees6/114.3%10.3%DOWN
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%6.0%DOWN
Atlanta Braves10/19.1%5.4%DOWN
Cleveland Indians16/15.9%5.4%DOWN
Minnesota Twins18/15.3%5.1%--
Washington Nationals40/12.4%4.0%--
Milwaukee Brewers30/13.2%2.4%DOWN
Oakland Athletics40/12.4%1.4%DOWN
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%1.3%DOWN
Philadelphia Phillies80/11.2%1.1%DOWN
St Louis Cardinals30/13.2%1.0%DOWN