MLB Computer Power Ranking: Tampa Bay Rays Up to #9

1HOUSTON ASTROS (79-46, 63.2%): Winning 66% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 105-57

If futures lines were not heavily juiced, the Astros would be a good betting value. Their 27.7% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #2 in the league. Current Odds are 2/1, 33.3%. They are projected to win 105 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 96.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the AL. After 125 games, their expected win percentage is 62% based on the money line odds. At 79-46 they are in line with these expectations.

When the perception of a team is very different than how good or bad they really are there is often very good betting value. Sportsline.com is the best place to find value each day based on objective computer simulations.

2LOS ANGELES DODGERS (82-44, 65.1%): Winning 65% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 106-56

After months of being a great value to win the World Series the Dodgers have slipped due to the Astros' aggressive move in acquiring Zack Greinke. Their simulation based win percentage (28.5%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 5/2, 28.6%. They are projected to win 106 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 92.5. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 76.2-49.8. They are ahead of expectations with their 82-44 record.

3NEW YORK YANKEES (83-43, 65.9%): Winning 62% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 103-59

Their 10.9% chance is #3 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 6/1, 14.3%. They are projected to win 103 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 97. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 73.2-52.8. They are ahead of expectations with their 83-43 record.

4CLEVELAND INDIANS (74-51, 59.2%): Winning 59% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 98-64

Their simulation based win percentage (5%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. Current Odds are 16/1, 5.9%. They are projected to win 98 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 91. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 71.2-53.8. At 74-51 they are in line with these expectations.

5MINNESOTA TWINS (76-48, 61.3%): Winning 59% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 100-62

Even with the juice, the Twins are a good betting value. Their 5.6% chance to win the World Series (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. Current Odds are 18/1, 5.3%. They are projected to win 100 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 84. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 67.8-56.2. At 76-48 they ahead of expectations.

6ATLANTA BRAVES (74-52, 58.7%): Winning 57% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 93-69

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 5.2% chance is #6 in the league. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to win 93 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 86. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 67.6-58.4. They are ahead of expectations with their 74-52 record.

7OAKLAND ATHLETICS (72-53, 57.6%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 95-67

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 1.1% chance is #12 in the league. Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 95 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 81.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the AL. After 125 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 72-53 record.

8CHICAGO CUBS (66-58, 53.2%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 88-74

Their 6.3% chance is #4 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. Current Odds are 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to win 88 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 87.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the NL. After 124 games, their expected win percentage is 54% based on the money line odds. At 66-58 they are in line with these expectations.

9TAMPA BAY RAYS (73-52, 58.4%): Winning 56% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 94-68

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 1.7% chance is #10 in the league. Current Odds are 25/1, 3.8%. They are projected to win 94 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 84.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the AL. After 125 games, their expected win percentage is 58% based on the money line odds. At 73-52 they are in line with these expectations.

10BOSTON RED SOX (67-59, 53.2%): Winning 55% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 88-74

While not completely impossible, their chances of winning the World Series is under 0.1 percent. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 88 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 93.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the AL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 74.6-51.4. They are coming up short of expectations at 67-59.

11WASHINGTON NATIONALS (67-56, 54.5%): Winning 55% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 89-73

They are a good bet to win the championship (3.5 percent chance). Current Odds are 40/1, 2.4%. They are projected to win 89 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the NL. After 123 games, their expected win percentage is 55% based on the money line odds. At 67-56 they are in line with these expectations.

12MILWAUKEE BREWERS (64-60, 51.6%): Winning 54% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 84-78

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 2.4% chance is #9 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 84 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 86.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 65.5-58.5. At 64-60 they are in line with these expectations.

13PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (64-60, 51.6%): Winning 52% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 84-78

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 0.9% chance is #13 in the league. Current Odds are 80/1, 1.2%. They are projected to win 84 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 89. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 64.6-59.4. At 64-60 they are in line with these expectations.

14NEW YORK METS (64-60, 51.6%): Winning 51% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 82-80

Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.2% chance is #14 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 82 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 65.5-58.5. At 64-60 they are in line with these expectations.

15ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (65-57, 53.3%): Winning 51% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 86-76

They are not a good bet to win the World Series. Their 1.1% chance is #11 in the league. Current Odds are 30/1, 3.2%. They are projected to win 86 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 88.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the NL. After 122 games, their expected win percentage is 52% based on the money line odds. At 65-57 they are in line with these expectations.

16ARIZONA D-BACKS (62-63, 49.6%): Winning 51% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 81-81

They win the World Series in less than 0.1% of simulations. Current Odds are 100/1, 1%. They are projected to win 81 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 75.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the NL. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 61-64. At 62-63 they are in line with these expectations.

17SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (63-62, 50.4%): Winning 49% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 80-82

They do not have any real chance to win the championship. Current Odds are 200/1, 0.5%. They are projected to win 80 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the NL. After 125 games, their expected win percentage is 45% based on the money line odds. At 63-62 they ahead of expectations.

18SAN DIEGO PADRES (58-65, 47.2%): Winning 48% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 75-87

They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the NL. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 61.4-61.6. At 58-65 they are in line with these expectations.

19CINCINNATI REDS (58-65, 47.2%): Winning 48% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 75-87

They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 79. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the NL. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 123 games, their expected win percentage is 49% based on the money line odds. At 58-65 they are in line with these expectations.

20COLORADO ROCKIES (57-67, 46%): Winning 48% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 75-87

They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL. Their playoff chances are under 1%. After 124 games, their expected win percentage is 48% based on the money line odds. At 57-67 they are in line with these expectations.

21TEXAS RANGERS (60-64, 48.4%): Winning 47% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 77-85

They are projected to win 77 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 71. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 55.9-68.1. At 60-64 they are in line with these expectations.

22LOS ANGELES ANGELS (62-64, 49.2%): Winning 46% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 75-87

They are projected to win 75 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 82. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #9 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +300 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 63.6-62.4. At 62-64 they are in line with these expectations.

23PITTSBURGH PIRATES (51-72, 41.5%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 68-94

They are projected to win 68 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 123 games, their expected win percentage is 44% based on the money line odds. At 51-72 they are in line with these expectations.

24TORONTO BLUE JAYS (52-75, 40.9%): Winning 43% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 68-94

They are projected to win 68 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 74. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #11 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +1000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 127 games, their expected win percentage is 44% based on the money line odds. At 52-75 they are in line with these expectations.

25CHICAGO WHITE SOX (55-68, 44.7%): Winning 42% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 72-90

They are projected to win 72 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #10 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +800 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 51.5-71.5. At 55-68 they are in line with these expectations.

26SEATTLE MARINERS (52-73, 41.6%): Winning 41% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 68-94

They are projected to win 68 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 73.5. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #12 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 55.9-69.1. At 52-73 they are in line with these expectations.

27KANSAS CITY ROYALS (44-80, 35.5%): Winning 40% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 60-102

They are projected to win 60 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 69. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. After 124 games, their expected win percentage is 42% based on the money line odds. At 44-80 they are in line with these expectations.

28MIAMI MARLINS (45-78, 36.6%): Winning 38% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 60-102

They are projected to win 60 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 63.5. In simulations they finish last in the NL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 47-76. At 45-78 they are in line with these expectations.

29BALTIMORE ORIOLES (39-85, 31.5%): Winning 33% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 52-110

They are projected to win 52 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 59. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the AL. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +4000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 43.8-80.2. At 39-85 they short of expectations.

30DETROIT TIGERS (37-85, 30.3%): Winning 29% of Neutral Field Simulations
Projected Record: 48-114

They are projected to win 48 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 68. In simulations they finish last in the AL based on projected wins. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +2000 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 49.6-72.4. At 37-85 they short of expectations.