MLB World Series and League Futures: Astros Fans Will Like This

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The percentage difference at the top of the AL is very large at 19.6%. The New York Yankees at 23.9% trail the Houston Astros at 43.5%. The gap seems to be widening. The Yankees chances are down from 32.4 percent. A difference of 3.96 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. This is a very top heavy league with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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Houston Astros104.598.1%100.0%4/5 (55.6%)43.5%
New York Yankees101.499.1%99.7%2/1 (33.3%)23.9%
Minnesota Twins99.171.6%97.3%6/1 (14.3%)14.7%
Cleveland Indians96.328.4%83.2%12/1 (7.7%)10.9%
Oakland Athletics96.11.9%87.6%20/1 (4.8%)3.9%
Tampa Bay Rays92.10.9%31.3%15/1 (6.2%)3.0%
Boston Red Sox86.20.0%1.0%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Texas Rangers78.80.0%0.0%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Los Angeles Angels75.60.0%0.0%1500/1 (0.1%)--
Chicago White Sox72.80.0%0.0%10000/1--
Seattle Mariners68.60.0%0.0%----
Toronto Blue Jays67.40.0%0.0%----
Kansas City Royals59.20.0%0.0%----
Baltimore Orioles52.80.0%0.0%----
Detroit Tigers49.20.0%0.0%----

There is a huge 32.8% gap between NL leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 48.1 percent chance of winning the NL and the Atlanta Braves are at 15.4%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Braves chances are down from 17.3 percent. While 1.7 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

Los Angeles Dodgers106.8100.0%100.0%5/8 (61.5%)48.1%
Atlanta Braves94.284.4%99.2%9/2 (18.2%)15.4%
Chicago Cubs88.759.3%76.0%10/1 (9.1%)14.4%
Washington Nationals89.012.3%77.6%12/1 (7.7%)8.3%
St Louis Cardinals87.132.3%59.2%12/1 (7.7%)6.0%
Philadelphia Phillies85.42.1%35.9%30/1 (3.2%)3.4%
Milwaukee Brewers84.08.1%21.9%15/1 (6.2%)3.1%
New York Mets84.71.1%25.7%20/1 (4.8%)1.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks80.60.0%2.8%50/1 (2%)0.2%
San Francisco Giants79.10.0%1.1%40/1 (2.4%)--
Cincinnati Reds76.60.1%0.3%250/1 (0.4%)--
San Diego Padres75.10.0%0.0%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Colorado Rockies72.80.0%0.0%2500/1--
Pittsburgh Pirates66.90.0%0.0%10000/1--
Miami Marlins58.90.0%0.0%----

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season for 2 teams. There are only 8 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Astros have a 26 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 4 percentage points behind the Dodgers. The separation between the team with the #6 highest chances vs the #8 highest is 2.1 percentage points.

Los Angeles Dodgers5/228.6%30.2%--
Houston Astros5/228.6%26.1%--
New York Yankees4/120.0%10.7%DOWN
Atlanta Braves10/19.1%6.1%DOWN
Minnesota Twins12/17.7%5.9%--
Chicago Cubs20/14.8%5.5%DOWN
Cleveland Indians25/13.8%4.8%DOWN
Washington Nationals25/13.8%3.4%DOWN
St Louis Cardinals25/13.8%1.9%DOWN
Oakland Athletics40/12.4%1.5%DOWN
Tampa Bay Rays30/13.2%1.3%DOWN
Milwaukee Brewers30/13.2%1.1%DOWN
Philadelphia Phillies60/11.6%1.1%DOWN