MLB Outlook: The Pittsburgh Pirates are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Marlins and Behind the Rockies in the NL

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Pirates are not contenders to win the championship at 20000/1. They are one of 2 teams with these odds (#23 in the league). They have no chance to win the championship. They are not a good value to win the NL either at 10000/1. They are projected to win 67 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 78.5. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +500 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 4.8% at 20/1, 4.8%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 127 games, their expected win percentage is 44% based on the money line odds. At 52-75 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (-1537 units). They are not good against the spread (58-69) for a -1941 loss. Their over-under record is 71-51 with 5 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 47% chance to beat the Reds in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
8/23 CIN47%22-10, +109715-16-1
8/24 CIN54%22-10, +109715-16-1
8/25 CIN48%22-10, +109715-16-1
8/26 PHI29%2-8, -6631-7-2
8/27 PHI31%2-8, -6631-7-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their average run differential is -0.98 which ranks #14 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #14 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #15 ranked team among home teams. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -2.54.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 127 Games4.6 (#10)0.262 (#3)0.612 (#10)
Road4.5 (#10)0.261 (#3)0.621 (#6)
Home4.6 (#11)0.263 (#6)0.603 (#12)
Last 13 Games3.5 (#15)0.233 (#14)0.533 (#15)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.5 (#14)0.266 (#14)0.657 (#14)
Road5.1 (#15)0.264 (#130.625 (#8)
Home6.0 (#14)0.267 (#14)0.689 (#14)
Last 13 Games6.1 (#13)0.283 (#13)0.676 (#8)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Josh Bell who is projected to be the #6 first baseman / DH the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Josh Bell996Anthony RizzoPaul Goldschmidt
Starling Marte10014Yordan AlvarezTrey Mancini
Jacob Stallings116Willians AstudilloJake Rogers
Felipe Vazquez9417Brandon WorkmanIan Kennedy
Bryan Reynolds7820Danny SantanaAustin Meadows
Kevin Newman3623Harold CastroBo Bichette
Adam Frazier2030Joe PanikIsan Diaz
Colin Moran1931Cheslor CuthbertMartin Prado
Elias Diaz743Matt WietersKevin Plawecki
Keone Kela347Sam DysonRowan Wick