As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.
REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK
Based on our latest projection, you can expect Nolan Arenado to be an elite fantasy starter the rest of the season. His 110.17 projected fantasy points puts him at #2 behind Anthony Rendon and ahead of Alex Bregman. He has averaged 3.62 fantasy points in his past 281 games. Our projected per game average is virtually the same. He is projected to average 3.56 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#4) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is owned in 100% of fantasy leagues so everyone expects him to be an elite third baseman. He is projected to live up to these high expectations. Nolan Arenado is expected to slightly improve on this season-to-date's #4 fantasy position rank.
|REST OF SEASON RANK (3B)||PROJECTION||FANTASY STATS SINCE 2018|
|#1 Anthony Rendon (100% OWN)||119 FP, 3.88 per game||476 FP, 134 gp, 3.55 per game (#4)|
|#2 Nolan Arenado (100% OWN)||110 FP, 3.56 per game||555 FP, 155 gp, 3.58 per game (#3)|
|#3 Alex Bregman (100% OWN)||110 FP, 3.81 per game||592 FP, 157 gp, 3.77 per game (#2)|
|#4 Jose Ramirez (100% OWN)||109 FP, 3.73 per game||619 FP, 157 gp, 3.94 per game (#1)|
|#5 Matt Chapman (99% OWN)||105 FP, 3.52 per game||444 FP, 144 gp, 3.08 per game (#7)|
These projections power SportsLine's Computer Picks and Fantasy Data. But for contest winning DFS optimal lineups by top experts like Mike McClure visit SportsLine's new Daily Fantasy Hub.
WEEK 22 AND 23 FANTASY OUTLOOK
Nolan Arenado is projected for 3.17 fantasy points in one game the rest of the week which is good enough to be the #3 ranked third baseman and a must start for most owners. This is projected to be a below average game with fewer fantasy points than he is projected to average per game the rest of the season. He is ranked above Eugenio Suarez but behind Anthony Rendon the rest of the week. Week 23 is projected to be slightly better based on projected rank (#1). He is projected for 26.41 fantasy points.
|8/25 TO 8/25 RANK (3B)||PROJECTION||ROS FP PROJ AVG|
|#1 Alex Bregman (100% OWN)||3.74 FP (100% ST)||3.81 FP|
|#2 Anthony Rendon (100% OWN)||3.46 FP (99% ST)||3.88 FP|
|#3 Nolan Arenado (100% OWN)||3.17 FP (100% ST)||3.56 FP|
|#4 Eugenio Suarez (99% OWN)||3.17 FP (92% ST)||3.03 FP|
|#5 Maikel Franco (28% OWN)||3.11 FP (7% ST)||2.76 FP|
|8/26 TO 9/1 RANK (3B)||PROJECTION||ROS FP PROJ AVG|
|#1 Nolan Arenado (100% OWN)||26.4 FP (100% ST)||3.56 FP|
|#2 Matt Chapman (99% OWN)||22.6 FP (90% ST)||3.52 FP|
|#3 Jose Ramirez (100% OWN)||21.6 FP (93% ST)||3.73 FP|
|#4 Eugenio Suarez (99% OWN)||21.4 FP (92% ST)||3.03 FP|
|#5 Justin Turner (98% OWN)||21 FP (91% ST)||3.11 FP|
Nolan Arenado is a Bad DFS Value on Fanduel at $4.1K and DraftKings at $4.9K on 8/25
He is projected for 10.9 FanDuel points and 8.2 points on DraftKings. Based on the player pool average points per dollar he is coming up -$163 short of $4.1K on FanDuel and -$105 short of $4.9K on DraftKings. Their should be much better options (see below). Barring a significant lineup change consider him a daily fantasy player to fade. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.
|FANDUEL (3B) 8/25 RANK||PROJECTION||SALARY|
|#5 Matt Carpenter||11 FD Points||$2700|
|#6 Josh Donaldson||11 FD Points||$3200|
|#7 Nolan Arenado||10.9 FD Points||$4100|
|#8 Miguel Sano||10.8 FD Points||$3500|
|#9 Matt Chapman||10.8 FD Points||$3500|
|DRAFTKINGS (3B) 8/25 RANK||PROJECTION||SALARY|
|#4 Scott Kingery||8.6 DK Points||$4200|
|#5 Matt Carpenter||8.2 DK Points||$3700|
|#6 Nolan Arenado||8.2 DK Points||$4900|
|#7 Josh Donaldson||8.2 DK Points||$4500|
|#8 Miguel Sano||8 DK Points||$4700|
FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS
The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Also included are actual stats from the current and last season.
|Rest of 2019||110||7.6||24||19.9||10.5||0.3|
|-- Per Game (31 Proj)||3.6||0.25||0.78||0.64||0.34||0.01|
|8/19 to 8/25 (1 Game)||3.2||0.20||0.71||0.57||0.32||0.01|
|8/26 to 9/1 (6.7 Games)||26.4||1.7||6.0||4.9||2.4||0.07|
|-- Per Game (126 GP)||3.7||0.25||0.79||0.66||0.36||0.01|
|2018 to 2019||1018||69||208||186||118||3|
|-- Per Game (281 GP)||3.6||0.25||0.74||0.66||0.42||0.01|