SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
Their odds to win it all are 5000/1 (#22). They do not win the World Series in any simulations. They are not a good value to win the NL either at 2500/1. They are projected to win 71 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +190 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 3.7% at 9/2, 18.2%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
After 130 games, their expected win percentage is 47% based on the money line odds. At 58-72 they short of expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (-1500 units). They are not good against the spread (59-71) for a -1679 loss. Their over-under record is 63-60 with 7 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 36% chance to beat the Cardinals in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H OU|
|8/25 STL||36%||2-8, -633||7-3|
|8/26 ATL||38%||7-5, +294||6-6|
|8/27 BOS||51%||1-1, +115||2-0|
|8/28 BOS||35%||1-1, +115||2-0|
|8/29 PIT||42%||5-4, +86||4-4-1|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Their average run differential is -0.54 which ranks #13 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #14 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.08 (#8 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 130 Games||5.3 (#4)||0.270 (#1)||0.630 (#7)|
|Road||4.2 (#14)||0.234 (#15)||0.553 (#14)|
|Home||6.4 (#1)||0.307 (#1)||0.709 (#1)|
|Last 13 Games||5.4 (#6)||0.283 (#4)||0.660 (#10)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||5.8 (#15)||0.277 (#15)||0.665 (#15)|
|Road||4.8 (#8)||0.255 (#7||0.637 (#12)|
|Home||6.9 (#15)||0.298 (#15)||0.692 (#15)|
|Last 13 Games||5.5 (#9)||0.255 (#6)||0.639 (#6)|
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Nolan Arenado who is projected to be the #2 third baseman the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|Nolan Arenado||100||2||Anthony Rendon||Alex Bregman|
|Trevor Story||100||3||Xander Bogaerts||Jorge Polanco|
|Charlie Blackmon||100||4||Mike Trout||Juan Soto|
|Daniel Murphy||92||13||Jonathan Villar||Jeff McNeil|
|Ryan McMahon||77||23||Jesus Aguilar||Miguel Cabrera|
|German Marquez||96||25||Jack Flaherty||Noah Syndergaard|
|Carlos Estevez||5||26||Matt Magill||Sergio Romo|
|Yonder Alonso||5||28||Justin Smoak||Matt Adams|
|Wade Davis||53||30||Archie Bradley||Mychal Givens|
|Ian Desmond||42||33||Edwin Encarnacion||C.J. Cron|