MLB Outlook: The Colorado Rockies are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Pirates and Behind the Padres in the NL

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 5000/1 (#22). They do not win the World Series in any simulations. They are not a good value to win the NL either at 2500/1. They are projected to win 71 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 85.5. In simulations, they have been eliminated from playoff contention. They were a +190 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 3.7% at 9/2, 18.2%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #13 in the NL.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 130 games, their expected win percentage is 47% based on the money line odds. At 58-72 they short of expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (-1500 units). They are not good against the spread (59-71) for a -1679 loss. Their over-under record is 63-60 with 7 pushes. Based on computer simulations they only have a 36% chance to beat the Cardinals in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H OU
8/25 STL36%2-8, -6337-3
8/26 ATL38%7-5, +2946-6
8/27 BOS51%1-1, +1152-0
8/28 BOS35%1-1, +1152-0
8/29 PIT42%5-4, +864-4-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their average run differential is -0.54 which ranks #13 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #11 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #14 in road games. Based on run differential, they are trending up. Their average run differential in their past 13 games is -0.08 (#8 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 130 Games5.3 (#4)0.270 (#1)0.630 (#7)
Road4.2 (#14)0.234 (#15)0.553 (#14)
Home6.4 (#1)0.307 (#1)0.709 (#1)
Last 13 Games5.4 (#6)0.283 (#4)0.660 (#10)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All5.8 (#15)0.277 (#15)0.665 (#15)
Road4.8 (#8)0.255 (#70.637 (#12)
Home6.9 (#15)0.298 (#15)0.692 (#15)
Last 13 Games5.5 (#9)0.255 (#6)0.639 (#6)

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Nolan Arenado who is projected to be the #2 third baseman the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Nolan Arenado1002Anthony RendonAlex Bregman
Trevor Story1003Xander BogaertsJorge Polanco
Charlie Blackmon1004Mike TroutJuan Soto
Daniel Murphy9213Jonathan VillarJeff McNeil
Ryan McMahon7723Jesus AguilarMiguel Cabrera
German Marquez9625Jack FlahertyNoah Syndergaard
Carlos Estevez526Matt MagillSergio Romo
Yonder Alonso528Justin SmoakMatt Adams
Wade Davis5330Archie BradleyMychal Givens
Ian Desmond4233Edwin EncarnacionC.J. Cron