Trevor Bauer Traded To Reds In Blockbuster Deal

SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

Trevor Bauer was traded to the Reds as part of a three-team deal between the Reds, Indians and Padres yesterday. The Reds acquired Bauer, the Padres acquired Taylor Trammell (the Reds #1 overall prospect), and the Indians acquired Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Yasiel Puig, Scott Moss, and Victor Nova. This seems like a good deal for all three teams involved, they all get what they were looking for and give up players that they deemed expendable. The Reds get their ace, the Padres get their possible superstar for a couple lower leverage prospects and the Indians get their big haul with Major League ready players, as well as prospects.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK

You can expect Trevor Bauer to be a good bench player who will start in certain weeks the rest of the season. His 5.24 projected fantasy points puts him at #71 behind Brett Anderson and ahead of Dallas Keuchel. He has averaged 3.17 fantasy points in his past 57 games, which is more than our projected per game average. He is projected to average 0.92 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#81) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is overrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 97%, he is the #24 most highly owned starting pitcher. He is also currently the #71 ranked starting pitcher.

REST OF SEASON RANK (SP) PROJECTIONFANTASY STATS SINCE 2018
#69 Johnny Cueto (20% OWN)5.4 FP, 1.42 per game142 FP, 112 gp, 1.3 per game (#41)
#70 Brett Anderson (43% OWN)5.3 FP, 1.12 per game142 FP, 112 gp, 1.3 per game (#41)
#71 Trevor Bauer (97% OWN)5.2 FP, 0.92 per game163 FP, 28 gp, 5.82 per game (#9)
#72 Dallas Keuchel (95% OWN)5.1 FP, 0.9 per game163 FP, 28 gp, 5.82 per game (#9)
#73 Jason Vargas (43% OWN)5.1 FP, 0.89 per game163 FP, 28 gp, 5.82 per game (#9)

WEEK 23 AND 24 FANTASY OUTLOOK

Trevor Bauer is projected for 1.07 fantasy points in 2 games the rest of the week which is good enough to be the #25 ranked starting pitcher and a must start for most owners. This is projected to be a better than average week with more fantasy points per game than he is projected to average per game the rest of the season. He is ranked above Jason Vargas but behind Dakota Hudson the rest of the week. Week 24 will not be as good based on projected rank (#96). He is projected for 0.02 fantasy points.

8/31 TO 9/1 RANK (SP)PROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#23 Eric Lauer (28% OWN)1.19 FP (16% ST)-0.29 FP
#24 Dakota Hudson (85% OWN)1.12 FP (69% ST)0.39 FP
#25 Trevor Bauer (97% OWN)1.07 FP (74% ST)0.92 FP
#26 Jason Vargas (43% OWN)1.05 FP (30% ST)0.89 FP
#27 Daniel Poncedeleon (8% OWN)1.05 FP (2% ST)0.5 FP
9/2 TO 9/8 RANK (SP)PROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#94 Alex Wood (52% OWN)0.04 FP (28% ST)1.05 FP
#95 Dakota Hudson (85% OWN)0.03 FP (69% ST)0.39 FP
#96 Trevor Bauer (97% OWN)0.02 FP (74% ST)0.92 FP
#97 Anthony DeSclafani (59% OWN)0.01 FP (42% ST)0.02 FP
#98 Jalen Beeks (9% OWN)0 FP (5% ST)-0.65 FP

TREVOR BAUER IS A GREAT DFS VALUE ON FANDUEL ($9.6K) AND DRAFTKINGS ($10.4K) FOR 8/31

He is projected for 35.7 FanDuel points and 18.9 points on DraftKings. Based on the player pool average points per dollar he is worth +$200 more than $9.6K on FanDuel and +$100 more than $10.4K on DraftKings. Their may be other options (see below) who are even better values, but barring a significant lineup change consider him a strong daily fantasy play. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.

FANDUEL (P) 8/31 RANKPROJECTIONSALARY
#1 Stephen Strasburg41.8 FD Points$11200
#2 Clayton Kershaw38 FD Points$11500
#3 Trevor Bauer35.7 FD Points$9600
#4 Domingo German33.3 FD Points$9400
#5 Sonny Gray32.6 FD Points$10700
DRAFTKINGS (SP) 8/31 RANKPROJECTIONSALARY
#1 Stephen Strasburg23.6 DK Points$11200
#2 Clayton Kershaw20.7 DK Points$11700
#3 Trevor Bauer18.9 DK Points$10400
#4 Sonny Gray18 DK Points$10800
#5 Robbie Ray17.4 DK Points$8900

FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS

The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Also included are actual stats from the current and last season.

TREVOR BAUERFPWINLOSSIPKBB
Rest of 20195.21.82.2373814.1
-- Per Game (6 Proj)0.920.320.386.46.62.5
8/26 to 9/1 (2 Games)1.10.250.426.76.62.5
9/2 to 9/8 (2 Games)0.020.290.396.17.42.7
2019 Season18.0101118221773
-- Per Game (29 GP)0.620.340.386.37.52.5
2018 to 20191812217352438130
-- Per Game (57 GP)3.20.390.306.27.72.3