As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.
SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE
Anthony Rizzo left early over the weekend with a back injury. The injury is not expected to be serious, and he is listed as day-to-day. Victor Caratini will play 1B in his absence, he is worth a look in fantasy if he gets everyday playing time.
REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK
Based on our latest projection, you can expect Anthony Rizzo to be an elite fantasy starter the rest of the season. His 85.72 projected fantasy points puts him at #3 behind J.D. Martinez and ahead of Carlos Santana. He has averaged 3.38 fantasy points in his past 276 games. Our projected per game average is virtually the same. He is projected to average 3.3 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#12) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is owned in 100% of fantasy leagues so everyone expects him to be an elite first baseman. He is projected to live up to these high expectations. Anthony Rizzo is expected to improve on this season-to-date's #8 fantasy position rank.
|REST OF SEASON RANK (1B/DH)||PROJECTION||FANTASY STATS SINCE 2018|
|#1 Pete Alonso (100% OWN)||88 FP, 3.51 per game||368 FP, 151 gp, 2.4 per game (#16)|
|#2 J.D. Martinez (100% OWN)||87 FP, 3.69 per game||600 FP, 150 gp, 4 per game (#1)|
|#3 Anthony Rizzo (100% OWN)||86 FP, 3.3 per game||487 FP, 150 gp, 3.25 per game (#3)|
|#4 Carlos Santana (100% OWN)||86 FP, 3.64 per game||466 FP, 161 gp, 2.89 per game (#11)|
|#5 Paul Goldschmidt (100% OWN)||82 FP, 3.02 per game||508 FP, 158 gp, 3.22 per game (#5)|
WEEK 23 AND 24 FANTASY OUTLOOK
Anthony Rizzo is projected for 2.82 fantasy points in one game the rest of the week in week 23 which ranks him as the #18 projected first baseman for the week and a starter for most fantasy teams. This is projected to be a below average game with fewer fantasy points than he is projected to average per game the rest of the season. He is ranked above Ryan O'Hearn but behind Mark Trumbo the rest of the week. Week 24 will be better based on projected rank (#8). He is projected for 19.39 fantasy points.
|9/1 TO 9/1 RANK (1B/DH)||PROJECTION||ROS FP PROJ AVG|
|#16 Danny Santana (94% OWN)||2.96 FP (82% ST)||3.13 FP|
|#17 Mark Trumbo (3% OWN)||2.91 FP||2.38 FP|
|#18 Anthony Rizzo (100% OWN)||2.82 FP (86% ST)||3.3 FP|
|#19 Ryan O'Hearn (11% OWN)||2.8 FP (5% ST)||2.47 FP|
|#20 Ryan Zimmerman (10% OWN)||2.66 FP (1% ST)||2.8 FP|
|9/2 TO 9/8 RANK (1B/DH)||PROJECTION||ROS FP PROJ AVG|
|#6 Jose Abreu (100% OWN)||19.4 FP (97% ST)||3.31 FP|
|#7 Pete Alonso (100% OWN)||19.4 FP (97% ST)||3.51 FP|
|#8 Anthony Rizzo (100% OWN)||19.4 FP (86% ST)||3.3 FP|
|#9 Josh Bell (100% OWN)||19.1 FP (96% ST)||3.4 FP|
|#10 Eric Hosmer (94% OWN)||19.1 FP (80% ST)||2.78 FP|
ANTHONY RIZZO IS A BAD DFS VALUE ON FANDUEL AT $3.9K AND DRAFTKINGS AT $5.2K ON 9/1
He is projected for 10 FanDuel points and 7.3 points on DraftKings. Based on the player pool average points per dollar he is coming up -$189 short of $3.9K on FanDuel and -$755 short of $5.2K on DraftKings. Their should be much better options (see below). Barring a significant lineup change consider him a daily fantasy player to fade. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.
|FANDUEL (C/1B) 9/1 RANK||PROJECTION||SALARY|
|#13 Yulieski Gurriel||10.2 FD Points||$3700|
|#14 Ryan O'Hearn||10.1 FD Points||$2600|
|#15 Anthony Rizzo||10 FD Points||$3900|
|#16 Paul Goldschmidt||9.8 FD Points||$3700|
|#17 Daniel Vogelbach||9.7 FD Points||$3200|
|DRAFTKINGS (1B) 9/1 RANK||PROJECTION||SALARY|
|#12 Paul Goldschmidt||7.4 DK Points||$4200|
|#13 Daniel Vogelbach||7.3 DK Points||$4000|
|#14 Anthony Rizzo||7.3 DK Points||$5200|
|#15 Eric Thames||7.2 DK Points||$4000|
|#16 Ryan Zimmerman||7.2 DK Points||$3700|
FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS
The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Also included are actual stats from the current and last season.
|Rest of 2019||86||4.2||16.4||15.2||12.2||1.0|
|-- Per Game (26 Proj)||3.3||0.16||0.63||0.58||0.47||0.04|
|8/26 to 9/1 (1 Game)||2.8||0.16||0.72||0.46||0.44||0.02|
|9/2 to 9/8 (5.8 Games)||19.4||0.99||3.7||3.4||2.7||0.22|
|-- Per Game (126 GP)||3.5||0.20||0.65||0.63||0.50||0.03|
|2018 to 2019||934||49||182||153||133||10|
|-- Per Game (276 GP)||3.4||0.18||0.66||0.55||0.48||0.04|