As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.
SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE
Anthony Rizzo left early over the weekend with a back injury. The injury is not expected to be serious, and he is listed as day-to-day. Victor Caratini will play 1B in his absence, he is worth a look in fantasy if he gets everyday playing time.
REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK
Expect Anthony Rizzo to be a reliable fantasy starter the rest of the season. His 81.79 projected fantasy points puts him at #5 behind Carlos Santana and ahead of Cody Bellinger. He has averaged 3.37 fantasy points in his past 277 games. Our projected per game average is virtually the same. He is projected to average 3.27 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#12) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is owned in 100% of fantasy leagues so everyone expects him to be an elite first baseman. He is projected to be very good, but not one of the very best at his position. Anthony Rizzo is expected to slightly improve on this season-to-date's #8 fantasy position rank.
|REST OF SEASON RANK (1B/DH)||PROJECTION||FANTASY STATS SINCE 2018|
|#3 Pete Alonso (100% OWN)||83 FP, 3.42 per game||368 FP, 151 gp, 2.4 per game (#17)|
|#4 Carlos Santana (100% OWN)||82 FP, 3.62 per game||466 FP, 161 gp, 2.89 per game (#15)|
|#5 Anthony Rizzo (100% OWN)||82 FP, 3.27 per game||487 FP, 150 gp, 3.25 per game (#5)|
|#6 Cody Bellinger (100% OWN)||80 FP, 3.81 per game||414 FP, 159 gp, 2.61 per game (#27)|
|#7 Freddie Freeman (100% OWN)||79 FP, 3.38 per game||524 FP, 162 gp, 3.23 per game (#6)|
PROJECTING A DOWN WEEK 24 FOR ANTHONY RIZZO WITH FEWER FPS THAN JOSE ABREU
Anthony Rizzo is projected for 19.13 fantasy points in 6 games which is good enough to be the #13 ranked first baseman and a must start for most owners. This is projected to be a better than average week with more fantasy points per game than he is projected to average per game the rest of the season. He is ranked above Matt Beaty but behind Jose Abreu. Week 25 will be better based on projected rank (#3). He is projected for 22.16 fantasy points.
|9/2 TO 9/8 RANK (1B/DH)||PROJECTION||ROS FP PROJ AVG|
|#11 Pete Alonso (100% OWN)||19.2 FP (97% ST)||3.42 FP|
|#12 Jose Abreu (100% OWN)||19.2 FP (97% ST)||3.26 FP|
|#13 Anthony Rizzo (100% OWN)||19.1 FP (86% ST)||3.27 FP|
|#14 Matt Beaty (7% OWN)||18.6 FP (5% ST)||3.17 FP|
|#15 Yulieski Gurriel (99% OWN)||18.3 FP (89% ST)||3.67 FP|
|9/9 TO 9/15 RANK (1B/DH)||PROJECTION||ROS FP PROJ AVG|
|#1 Edwin Encarnacion (91% OWN)||23.5 FP (9% ST)||3.61 FP|
|#2 Freddie Freeman (100% OWN)||23.4 FP (99% ST)||3.38 FP|
|#3 Anthony Rizzo (100% OWN)||22.2 FP (86% ST)||3.27 FP|
|#4 Cody Bellinger (100% OWN)||21.5 FP (100% ST)||3.81 FP|
|#5 Carlos Santana (100% OWN)||20.8 FP (98% ST)||3.62 FP|
ANTHONY RIZZO IS A BETTER VALUE ON FANDUEL AT $4K THAN ON DRAFTKINGS AT $4.8K ON 9/2
He is a better value on FanDuel than on DraftKings based on position specific points per dollar calculations. He is projected for 11 FD points and is worth +$143 more than $4K on FD. On DK he is projected for 8.3 points and is worth $4.8K. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.
|FANDUEL (C/1B) 9/2 RANK||PROJECTION||SALARY|
|#7 Eric Hosmer||11.1 FD Points||$3200|
|#8 Carlos Santana||11 FD Points||$3800|
|#9 Anthony Rizzo||11 FD Points||$4000|
|#10 Yulieski Gurriel||10.7 FD Points||$3700|
|#11 Paul Goldschmidt||10.6 FD Points||$3700|
|DRAFTKINGS (1B) 9/2 RANK||PROJECTION||SALARY|
|#4 Freddie Freeman||8.4 DK Points||$5300|
|#5 Jesus Aguilar||8.4 DK Points||$3500|
|#6 Anthony Rizzo||8.3 DK Points||$4800|
|#7 Paul Goldschmidt||8.1 DK Points||$4300|
|#8 Jay Bruce||7.9 DK Points||$4400|
FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS
The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Also included are actual stats from the current and last season.
|Rest of 2019||82||4.0||15.3||14.4||11.3||0.9|
|-- Per Game (25 Proj)||3.3||0.16||0.61||0.57||0.45||0.04|
|9/2 to 9/8 (5.8 Games)||19.1||0.98||3.6||3.3||2.7||0.21|
|9/9 to 9/15 (6.7 Games)||22.2||1.2||4.2||3.9||2.7||0.25|
|-- Per Game (127 GP)||3.5||0.20||0.65||0.63||0.50||0.03|
|2018 to 2019||934||49||182||153||133||10|
|-- Per Game (277 GP)||3.4||0.18||0.66||0.55||0.48||0.04|