2019 FUTURES PICKS: Boston Takes the Lead By Re-Signing Nathan Eovaldi

There is a small 4% gap between AL leaders. The Boston Red Sox lead with a 23 percent chance of winning the AL and the Houston Astros are at 22.2%. Prior to re-signing Nathan Eovaldi Houston actually led Boston by 0.1 percentage points. The Red Sox chances are down from 27.9 percent immediately after the World Series. A difference of 3.3 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. This are 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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Boston Red Sox101.355.0%92.9%11/4 (26.7%)23.0%
Houston Astros97.473.7%84.8%11/4 (26.7%)22.2%
New York Yankees98.435.5%87.0%11/4 (26.7%)19.6%
Cleveland Indians92.570.0%76.2%5/1 (16.7%)18.5%
Tampa Bay Rays90.89.5%54.6%15/1 (6.2%)6.3%
Oakland Athletics87.516.5%37.2%15/1 (6.2%)4.4%
Minnesota Twins86.128.4%38.4%40/1 (2.4%)3.5%
Los Angeles Angels83.37.4%19.1%30/1 (3.2%)2.0%
Texas Rangers76.01.3%4.0%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Seattle Mariners75.01.0%3.2%150/1 (0.7%)0.1%
Kansas City Royals70.91.1%1.5%150/1 (0.7%)0.1%
Chicago White Sox68.80.6%0.8%20/1 (4.8%)--
Toronto Blue Jays66.20.1%0.1%50/1 (2%)--
Detroit Tigers60.20.1%0.1%150/1 (0.7%)--
Baltimore Orioles56.10.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is at 40%. The Washington Nationals at 20% trails the Los Angeles Dodgers at 28.1%. The Nationals chances are up from 17.2% so they are trending in the right direction. A difference of 4.14 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

Los Angeles Dodgers101.291.9%96.6%13/4 (23.5%)28.1%
Washington Nationals94.568.8%82.6%10/1 (9.1%)20.0%
Milwaukee Brewers91.840.1%70.2%7/1 (12.5%)15.1%
Chicago Cubs90.734.0%66.0%5/1 (16.7%)12.7%
St Louis Cardinals88.323.3%53.2%7/1 (12.5%)9.8%
New York Mets84.213.4%32.2%15/1 (6.2%)4.3%
Atlanta Braves84.414.2%33.3%5/1 (16.7%)3.6%
Colorado Rockies82.95.0%26.5%15/1 (6.2%)2.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks80.22.8%16.3%100/1 (1%)1.7%
Philadelphia Phillies77.63.4%10.4%7/1 (12.5%)1.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates77.62.5%9.8%30/1 (3.2%)0.8%
San Diego Padres69.20.1%1.0%50/1 (2%)--
San Francisco Giants69.10.2%1.1%50/1 (2%)--
Cincinnati Reds66.50.1%0.5%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins61.10.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

Using a level of having at least a two percent chance, there are 10 'contending' teams. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At the top, the Red Sox have a 0 percentage point lead over the Dodgers. At the bottom of the contenders list, 3.1 percentage points separate the Cubs from the Rays.

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Boston Red Sox6/114.3%13.5%--
Los Angeles Dodgers7/112.5%13.5%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%13%.0--
New York Yankees6/114.3%11.6%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%9.7%--
Washington Nationals20/14.8%9.5%--
Milwaukee Brewers14/16.7%7.3%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%5.9%--
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%4.3%--
Tampa Bay Rays30/13.2%2.9%--
Oakland Athletics30/13.2%1.8%--
New York Mets30/13.2%1.7%--
Atlanta Braves10/19.1%1.4%--
Minnesota Twins80/11.2%1%.0--