Aaron Nola is a Bad DFS Value on Fanduel at $10.4K and DraftKings at $11.3K on 8/30

DAILY FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND PLAY OR FADE ADVICE

He is projected for 34.2 FanDuel points and 18.1 points on DraftKings. Based on the player pool average points per dollar he is coming up -$698 short of $10.4K on FanDuel and -$790 short of $11.3K on DraftKings. Their should be much better options (see below). Barring a significant lineup change consider him a daily fantasy player to fade. Below are how he ranks based on projected fantasy points on both DFS platforms. Look for players with more FPs at lower salaries.

FANDUEL (P) 8/30 RANKPROJECTIONSALARY
#1 Shane Bieber39.3 FD Points$10600
#2 Trevor Bauer35.5 FD Points$9600
#3 Aaron Nola34.2 FD Points$10400
#4 Madison Bumgarner34 FD Points$9200
#5 Zack Wheeler33.5 FD Points$8800
DRAFTKINGS (SP) 8/30 RANKPROJECTIONSALARY
#2 Trevor Bauer18.8 DK Points$10400
#3 Madison Bumgarner18.3 DK Points$10200
#4 Aaron Nola18.1 DK Points$11300
#5 Zack Wheeler17.9 DK Points$9000
#6 Kyle Gibson17.8 DK Points$9500

These projections power SportsLine's Computer Picks and Fantasy Data. But for contest winning DFS optimal lineups by top experts like Mike McClure visit SportsLine's new Daily Fantasy Hub.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK

Expect Aaron Nola to be a reliable fantasy starter the rest of the season. His 23.28 projected fantasy points puts him at #12 behind Hyun-Jin Ryu and ahead of Kyle Hendricks. He has averaged 5.11 fantasy points in his past 61 games, which is more than our projected per game average. He is projected to average 4.08 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#15) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is overrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 98%, he is the #8 most highly owned starting pitcher. Aaron Nola is expected to improve on this season-to-date's #20 fantasy position rank.

REST OF SEASON RANK (SP) PROJECTIONFANTASY STATS SINCE 2018
#10 Luis Castillo (97% OWN)25 FP, 4.31 per game$4000
#11 Hyun-Jin Ryu (97% OWN)24 FP, 6.2 per game82 FP, 16 gp, 5.11 per game (#10)
#12 Aaron Nola (98% OWN)23 FP, 4.08 per game218 FP, 33 gp, 6.6 per game (#7)
#13 Kyle Hendricks (97% OWN)23 FP, 4.08 per game61 FP, 33 gp, 1.83 per game (#44)
#14 Patrick Corbin (98% OWN)23 FP, 4.02 per game139 FP, 33 gp, 4.21 per game (#16)

WEEK 23 AND 24 FANTASY OUTLOOK

Aaron Nola is projected for 3.41 fantasy points in 2 games the rest of the week which is good enough to be the #17 ranked starting pitcher and a must start for most owners. This is projected to be a below average week with fewer fantasy points per game than he is projected to average per game the rest of the season. He is ranked above David Price but behind Joey Lucchesi the rest of the week. Week 24 is projected to be slightly better based on projected rank (#14). He is projected for 5.5 fantasy points.

8/30 TO 9/1 RANK (SP)PROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#15 Domingo German (97% OWN)3.53 FP (74% ST)3.78 FP
#16 Joey Lucchesi (83% OWN)3.5 FP (48% ST)1.7 FP
#17 Aaron Nola (98% OWN)3.41 FP (88% ST)4.08 FP
#18 David Price (94% OWN)3.37 FP (17% ST)3.73 FP
#19 Framber Valdez (13% OWN)3.09 FP (5% ST)1.92 FP
9/2 TO 9/8 RANK (SP)PROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#12 Mike Fiers (94% OWN)6.2 FP (77% ST)3.63 FP
#13 Ryan Yarbrough (89% OWN)5.7 FP (64% ST)2.06 FP
#14 Aaron Nola (98% OWN)5.5 FP (88% ST)4.08 FP
#15 Hyun-Jin Ryu (97% OWN)5.5 FP (77% ST)6.2 FP
#16 Jake Odorizzi (96% OWN)5.1 FP (70% ST)3.17 FP

FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS

The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Also included are actual stats from the current and last season.

AARON NOLAFPWINLOSSIPKBB
Rest of 201923.32.41.1343710.3
-- Per Game (6 Proj)4.10.430.196.06.51.8
8/26 to 9/1 (2 Games)3.40.430.175.76.21.8
9/2 to 9/8 (2 Games)5.50.450.166.46.51.6
2019 Season9412416818762
-- Per Game (28 GP)3.40.430.146.06.72.2
2018 to 20193122910378411120
-- Per Game (61 GP)5.10.480.166.26.72.0