Bet on the Milwaukee Brewers to Win Over 83.5 Games in 2019

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 83.4 wins. Their 95 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They won 54.3% on the road which was better than expected (47.8%). They won 51 at home and were expected to win 44.7. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 89.6 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.4 wins. They are a contender with a 4.4% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 10.2% chance of reaching the Series. They are not a good futures betting value with championship odds of 18/1, 5.3% and odds to win the NL at 9/1, 10%.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is better than it should be. Since last season their average run differential is +0.62 which ranks #3 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #1. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential in home games, vs #6 in road games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 173 Games4.6 (#7)0.252 (#7)0.603 (#4)
Road4.5 (#7)0.255 (#2)0.619 (#3)
Home4.7 (#5)0.248 (#7)0.592 (#6)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.0 (#3)0.231 (#3)0.551 (#2)
Road4.0 (#6)0.232 (#30.536 (#2)
Home3.9 (#3)0.229 (#2)0.570 (#7)

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TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Brewers in all of their games would have earned a +907 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have delivered a +635 profit risking 100 units on each game (86-76 PL). They are profitable against the run line at home and on the road.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LineRun Line RecordO/U Record
All Games4.6 - 4.195-67, +90786-76, +63578-80 50.6% Under
On Road4.5 - 4.144-37, +79547-34, +41240-40 50% Over
At Home4.7 - 4.051-30, +96939-42, +22338-40 51.3% Under
9/30 DET11-0Win +35Covered -1.5Over 9
9/29 DET6-5Win +37Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
9/28 DET6-5Win +40Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
9/26 @STL2-1Win +91Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/25 @STL12-4Win +100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
9/24 @STL6-4Win +133Covered +1.5Over 8
9/23 @PIT13-6Win +69Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/22 @PIT0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
9/21 @PIT8-3Win +74Covered -1.5Over 8
9/19 CIN7-0Win +57Covered -1.5Under 8.5
9/18 CIN1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
9/17 CIN8-0Win +56Covered -1.5Under 9
9/16 PIT2-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
9/15 PIT1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/14 PIT7-4Win +66Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/12 @CHC5-1Win +150Covered +1.5Under 8.5
9/11 @CHC0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9
9/10 @CHC3-2Win +125Covered +1.5Under 8.5
9/9 SF6-3Win +69Covered -1.5Over 8
9/8 SF4-3Win +51Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/7 SF4-2Win +54Covered -1.5Under 8.5
9/5 CHC4-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
9/4 CHC11-1Win +95Covered +1.5Over 9
9/3 CHC4-3Win +112Covered +1.5Under 8.5
9/2 @WAS9-4Win +83Covered -1.5Over 9.5
9/1 @WAS4-5Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
8/31 @WAS4-1Win +106Covered +1.5Under 9
8/30 @CIN2-1Win +71Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
8/29 @CIN13-12Win +68Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
8/28 @CIN7-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
8/26 PIT7-4Win +78Covered -1.5Over 8.5
8/25 PIT1-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/24 PIT7-6Win +78Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/22 CIN4-0Win +37Covered -1.5Under 9
8/21 CIN7-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
8/20 CIN5-2Win +43Covered -1.5Under 9
8/19 @STL2-1Win +93Covered +1.5Under 8
8/18 @STL2-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8
8/17 @STL2-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8
8/15 @CHC4-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 9
8/14 @CHC7-0Win +125Covered +1.5Under 9.5
8/12 @ATL7-8Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
8/11 @ATL4-2Win +100Covered -1.5Under 9
8/10 @ATL1-10Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/9 SD4-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/8 SD8-4Win +50Covered -1.5Over 8.5
8/7 SD5-11Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/5 COL4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
8/4 COL8-4Win +68Covered -1.5Over 8.5
8/3 COL5-3Win +79Covered -1.5Under 8.5
8/2 @LAD5-21Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
8/1 @LAD4-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8
7/31 @LAD1-0Win +155Covered +1.5Under 8.5
7/30 @LAD5-2Win +128Covered +1.5Under 7.5
7/29 @SF5-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
7/28 @SF7-1Win +87Covered -1.5Over 7.5
7/27 @SF3-1Win +113Covered +1.5Under 7
7/26 @SF7-5Win +102Covered +1.5Over 7.5
7/25 WAS3-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9.5
7/24 WAS5-4Win +77Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
7/23 WAS6-1Win +99Covered +1.5Under 9
7/22 LAD2-11Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8.5
7/21 LAD4-2Win +157Covered +1.5Under 8
7/20 LAD4-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 9
7/15 @PIT6-7Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 7.5
7/14 @PIT2-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
7/14 @PIT1-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
7/13 @PIT3-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
7/12 @PIT3-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8
7/11 @MIA4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
7/10 @MIA8-4Win +57Covered -1.5Over 8
7/9 @MIA3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
7/8 ATL10-3Win +83Covered -1.5Over 8.5
7/7 ATL1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
7/6 ATL5-4Win +79Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
7/5 ATL7-2Win +100Covered -1.5Over 8.5
7/4 MIN3-2Win +90Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
7/3 MIN2-0Win +67Covered -1.5Under 8.5
7/2 MIN6-5Win +84Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
7/1 @CIN2-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
6/30 @CIN3-12Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 9.5
6/29 @CIN8-2Win +110Covered +1.5Push 10
6/28 @CIN6-4Win +85Covered -1.5Over 9
6/27 KC4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
6/26 KC5-1Win +45Covered -1.5Under 8
6/24 STL2-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
6/23 STL2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 9
6/22 STL2-1Win +86Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
6/21 STL11-3Win +85Covered -1.5Over 8.5
6/19 @PIT3-2Win +112Covered +1.5Under 8
6/18 @PIT0-1Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
6/17 PHI9-10Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
6/16 PHI1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
6/15 PHI13-2Win +72Covered -1.5Over 8.5
6/13 CHC1-0Win +90Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
6/12 CHC4-0Win +100Covered -1.5Under 9
6/11 CHC2-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8
6/10 @PHI3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
6/9 @PHI12-3Win +101Covered +1.5Over 8
6/8 @PHI12-4Win +100Covered +1.5Over 8
6/6 @CLE1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8.5
6/5 @CLE2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 7.5
6/3 @CHW1-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
6/2 @CHW5-0Win +62Covered -1.5Under 9
6/1 @CHW3-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/30 STL3-2Win +105Covered +1.5Under 8.5
5/29 STL1-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
5/28 STL8-3Win +91Covered -1.5Over 9
5/27 NYM8-7Win +71Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/26 NYM17-6Win +69Covered -1.5Over 9.5
5/25 NYM4-3Win +108Covered +1.5Under 8
5/24 NYM0-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
5/23 ARI9-2Win +92Covered -1.5Over 8.5
5/22 ARI1-0Win +70Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
5/21 ARI4-2Win +120Covered +1.5Under 8
5/20 @MIN1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9
5/19 @MIN5-4Win +99Covered +1.5Over 8.5
5/18 @MIN8-3Win +133Covered +1.5Over 9
5/16 @ARI8-2Win +93Covered -1.5Over 8.5
5/15 @ARI1-2Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 8
5/14 @ARI7-2Win +134Covered +1.5Over 8
5/13 @COL7-3Win +149Covered +1.5Under 10.5
5/12 @COL0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 11
5/11 @COL11-10Win +105Covered +1.5Over 11.5
5/10 @COL5-2Win +135Covered +1.5Under 11.5
5/9 CLE2-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Push 8
5/8 CLE3-2Win +147Covered +1.5Under 8
5/6 PIT0-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
5/5 PIT5-3Win +100Covered +1.5Under 8.5
5/4 PIT4-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
5/2 @CIN3-1Win +91Covered -1.5Under 9.5
5/1 @CIN7-6Win +83Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9.5
4/30 @CIN6-5Win +83Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9.5
4/29 @CHC0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8.5
4/28 @CHC0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 7
4/27 @CHC2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 7.5
4/26 @CHC0-1Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 8.5
4/25 @KC6-2Win +95Covered -1.5Under 8.5
4/24 @KC5-2Win +77Covered -1.5Under 9.5
4/22 MIA4-2Win +53Covered -1.5Under 9
4/21 MIA6-5Win +51Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
4/20 MIA8-0Win +65Covered -1.5Under 9
4/19 MIA12-3Win +54Covered -1.5Over 9
4/18 CIN2-0Win +71Covered -1.5Under 9
4/17 CIN2-0Win +65Covered -1.5Under 9
4/16 CIN4-10Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
4/15 @NYM2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 7
4/14 @NYM5-1Win +100Covered +1.5Under 8
4/13 @NYM5-6Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
4/11 @STL3-2Win +135Covered +1.5Under 9.5
4/10 @STL3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
4/9 @STL5-4Win +132Covered +1.5Over 8
4/8 CHC0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8.5
4/7 CHC2-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9
4/6 CHC5-4Win +125Covered +1.5Over 8.5
4/5 CHC0-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9
4/4 STL0-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9.5
4/3 STL5-4Win +93Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
4/2 STL4-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
3/31 @SD7-3Win +83Covered -1.5Over 8
3/30 @SD8-6Win +87Covered -1.5Over 8
3/29 @SD2-1Win +81Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8