Christian Yelich's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

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REST OF SEASON VALUE

There are 15 outfielders owned in 100% of leagues and Christian Yelich is projected to be the #2 among them. If you sort these 15 players based on their actual fantasy production and then by their current start percentage, he is the #1 rated player. The projections expect his value to decrease slightly. He is projected for 430 fantasy points in 111 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market values Christian Yelich over Springer and the projections agree.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
430 (#2) 
Avg0.311 (#3) 
 
OPS0.984 (#2) 
 
Home Runs 
27 (#4) 
Runs 
83 (#4) 
RBI81 (#3) 
 
Stolen Bases 
16 (#7) 
Strikeouts 
 
94 (#94)

His value increases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative strengths than weaknesses.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among outfielders for the rest of week 8 is #1. Week 9 outfielders comparisons show these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Michael Brantley (21.2 FP), Aaron Hicks (21.2 FP), Mike Trout (24 FP), Charlie Blackmon (20.6 FP), and George Springer (25.5 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 25.5 fantasy points (WK 9). Owners expect him to be the most productive outfielder of the week, but he is projected to be the #12 outfielder. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 6.5 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 4.1 which is less than his actual per game average (5.1). In addition to a below average projected FP average, he also is expected to play just 4.690625 games.

He is projected for 19 fantasy points in week 9 (#12 OF) in 5 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
19 (#12) 
Avg0.334 (#2) 
 
OPS0.919 (#2) 
 
Home Runs 
1.24 (#12) 
Runs 
3.79 (#11) 
RBI 
3.81 (#8) 
Stolen Bases 
0.78 (#10) 

  • Based on 5/16 start %s the market values Christian Yelich over Hoskins and the projections agree.
  • May 21May 22May 24May 25May 26
    3.2 FP vs CIN3.7 FP vs CIN4.1 FP vs PHI4 FP vs PHI4 FP vs PHI

    Christian Yelich last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/15 @PHI3 FP, 12 FD, 10 DK2-4, 1 R
    5/14 @PHI2 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-4, 1 R, 1 BB
    5/13 @PHI6 FP, 25 FD, 16 DK1-3, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 SB, 2 BB
    5/12 @CHC2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 R
    5/11 @CHC2 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-4, 2 BB

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (5/16): Yelich is projected for 15.1 FanDuel points and is fairly ranked. At $4700 he is expected to be the #1 outfielder. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $5.2K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Based on salary, he is expected to have 13.7 FPs, a value reached in 86 of 197 games (44%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

    Yelich is in the SportsLine FanDuel optimal lineup based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He is not in the DraftKings optimal lineup but is.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 11.5 DraftKings points, Yelich is fairly ranked. He is the #1 highest priced outfielder ($5800). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Yelich is worth $6.5K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.3 FPs, a value reached in 83 of 197 games (42%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 24 fantasy points per week and had 3 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 2 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL24 FP per Week23
    Week 138.5 (4 games 9.6 per game)+14.3
    Week 225 (6 games 4.2 per game)
    Week 311 (6 games 1.8 per game)-13.2
    Week 463 (7 games 9 per game)+38.8
    Week 518.5 (6 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 66.5 (2 games 3.2 per game)-17.7
    Week 720.5 (6 games 3.4 per game)
    Week 810.5 (3 games 3.5 per game)-13.7

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 18.1 FD points and 14.1 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 23 and on FanDuel it was 36.9 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All18.1 ($5K)10 G, 12 B14.1 ($5.5K)6 G, 11 B
    5/15 @PHI12.2 ($4.8K)--10 ($5.7K)--
    5/14 @PHI6.2 ($4.8K)-11.94 ($5.9K)-10.1
    5/13 @PHI24.7 ($4.8K)--16 ($5.7K)--
    5/12 @CHC6.2 ($4.8K)-11.95-9.1
    5/11 @CHC6 ($4.8K)-12.14 ($5.8K)-10.1
    5/10 @CHC12.2 ($4.8K)--9--
    5/8 WAS36.9 ($5K)+18.827+12.9
    5/7 WAS9.2 ($4.9K)--7 ($5.8K)-7.1
    5/6 WAS9.2 ($4.7K)--7 ($5.6K)-7.1
    5/5 NYM22.2 ($4.8K)--16 ($5.6K)--
    5/4 NYM0--0--
    4/28 @NYM3--3--
    4/27 @NYM40.4 ($4.9K)+22.329 ($5.7K)+14.9
    4/26 @NYM27.7 ($4.9K)+9.622 ($5K)+7.9
    4/24 @STL0 ($5.2K)-18.10 ($5.8K)-14.1
    4/23 @STL6 ($5.1K)-12.14 ($5.8K)-10.1
    4/22 @STL0 ($5.2K)-18.10 ($5.7K)-14.1
    4/21 LAD6 ($5K)-12.14 ($5.6K)-10.1
    4/20 LAD43.6 ($5K)+25.532 ($5.5K)+17.9
    4/19 LAD25.2 ($5.1K)--18 ($5.5K)--
    4/18 LAD18.7 ($5.2K)--14 ($5.6K)--
    4/17 STL9.5 ($5.2K)--7-7.1
    4/16 STL28.7 ($4.8K)+10.621 ($5.4K)--
    4/15 STL73.1 ($4.8K)+5552 ($5.4K)+37.9
    4/14 @LAD0 ($4.9K)-18.10-14.1
    4/13 @LAD0 ($4.9K)-18.10 ($5.5K)-14.1
    4/12 @LAD24.6 ($4.9K)--19 ($5.2K)--
    4/10 @LAA13 ($5K)--10 ($5.5K)--
    4/9 @LAA3 ($5K)-15.13 ($5.3K)-11.1
    4/8 @LAA12 ($5K)--9 ($5.3K)--
    4/7 CHC31.7 ($5.1K)+13.623 ($5.4K)+8.9
    4/6 CHC6.2 ($5K)-11.94 ($5.4K)-10.1
    4/5 CHC22.4 ($5.1K)--16 ($5.3K)--
    4/3 @CIN12 ($5.2K)--7-7.1
    4/2 @CIN9 ($5.4K)-9.18--
    4/1 @CIN9.2 ($5.1K)--7-7.1
    3/31 STL43.9 ($5K)+25.831 ($5.5K)+16.9
    3/30 STL18.7 ($4.9K)--14 ($5.1K)--
    3/29 STL27.9 ($4.7K)+9.821 ($5.3K)--
    3/28 STL31.7 ($4.5K)+13.622+7.9