Consider Miguel Sano to Be a Good Fantasy Option (but Not Elite) in 2019

2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: SOLID PERFORMER

Miguel Sano is projected to be a third baseman worth starting most weeks. His projected position rank based on season total fantasy points is #16 (at 3B). At the end of the 2018 season he was owned in just 50 percent of leagues. This should go up next season. He is projected to average 2.79 fantasy points per game in 134 games.

3B RankPlayerProj FPProj Stats
#14Evan Longoria381.50.247 AVG, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 69 R, 36 BB, 4 SB
#15Kyle Seager379.10.232 AVG, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 68 R, 50 BB, 2 SB
#16Miguel Sano373.80.243 AVG, 33 HR, 96 RBI, 84 R, 48 BB
#17Maikel Franco373.30.262 AVG, 25 HR, 81 RBI, 63 R, 33 BB
#18Eduardo Escobar3720.258 AVG, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 66 R, 42 BB, 3 SB

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SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

He was the number #31 ranked 3B and the #329 ranked player overall. His value would have been higher if he had played more games. Based on average fantasy points he was the #27 3B. We split his 71 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). His production dropped throughout the season. In his first 23 games he averaged 2.4 FPs and that declined to 2.1 in his final 24 games. He is still relatively young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. Based on a relatively low standard deviation, Sano can be considered a consistent fantasy player. Our projected ceiling for Sano when he 'goes off' is 10 fantasy points (his average is 2.1FPs).

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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

As a young player, his dropoff in fantasy production is disappointing. His average fantasy points decreased by 30% this season.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points152339
FP Average2.13
Regular Season GP71113
AVG0.1990.266
OPS0.6790.865
HR1328
RBI4177
R3275
SB00
BB3154
KO115172

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 9 fantasy points per week and had 7 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 5 weeks where he was +50% above average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL9 FP per Week57
Week 19 (3 games 3 per game)
Week 224 (4 games 6 per game)+15
Week 3-1 (3 games -0.3 per game)-10
Week 46 (5 games 1.2 per game)
Week 515 (5 games 3 per game)+6
Week 92 (3 games 0.7 per game)-7
Week 1024 (6 games 4 per game)+15
Week 113.5 (6 games 0.6 per game)-5.5
Week 122.5 (2 games 1.2 per game)-6.5
Week 18-2.5 (2 games -1.2 per game)-11.5
Week 1919 (6 games 3.2 per game)+10
Week 2013 (6 games 2.2 per game)
Week 2126 (6 games 4.3 per game)+17
Week 225 (6 games 0.8 per game)
Week 237 (5 games 1.4 per game)
Week 242 (2 games 1 per game)-7
Week 26-2 (1 games)-11

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 9.5 points and on DraftKings it was 6.9 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 15 and on FanDuel it was 21.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All9.5 ($3.2K)15 G, 23 B6.9 ($4K)14 G, 22 B
9/18 @DET0 ($2.8K)-9.50 ($3.7K)-6.9
9/4 @HOU3--2--
9/3 @HOU6.5 ($3.2K)--5 ($3.7K)--
9/1 @TEX0 ($3.4K)-9.50 ($4K)-6.9
8/31 @TEX6 ($2.6K)--4 ($4.1K)--
8/30 @CLE18.7 ($2.5K)+9.214 ($3.7K)+7.1
8/29 @CLE3 ($2.6K)-6.52 ($3.9K)-4.9
8/28 @CLE6 ($2.6K)--4 ($3.9K)--
8/26 OAK3 ($2.8K)-6.53 ($4.1K)-3.9
8/25 OAK18.7 ($3.1K)+9.214 ($3.9K)+7.1
8/24 OAK3.5 ($3.1K)-62 ($4.2K)-4.9
8/22 @CHW3 ($3.4K)-6.52 ($4.1K)-4.9
8/21 @CHW0 ($3.8K)-9.50 ($4.3K)-6.9
8/20 CHW0 ($3.6K)-9.50 ($4.6K)-6.9
8/19 DET3 ($3.1K)-6.52 ($4.5K)-4.9
8/18 DET24.7 ($3.2K)+15.219 ($4.6K)+12.1
8/17 DET0 ($2.8K)-9.50 ($4.2K)-6.9
8/16 DET34.9 ($2.8K)+25.425 ($4.5K)+18.1
8/15 PIT9.2 ($2.6K)--7 ($4.2K)--
8/14 PIT22.2 ($2.5K)+12.716 ($3.9K)+9.1
8/12 @DET0 ($2.4K)-9.50 ($4.1K)-6.9
8/11 @DET12.2 ($2.4K)--10 ($4.3K)--
8/9 @CLE3 ($2.3K)-6.53 ($3.7K)-3.9
8/8 @CLE27.9 ($2.6K)+18.421 ($4K)+14.1
8/7 @CLE3 ($2.6K)-6.52 ($3.5K)-4.9
8/6 @CLE6 ($2.7K)--4 ($3.4K)--
8/5 KC9.2 ($2.9K)--8 ($4.1K)--
8/4 KC6.2 ($2.6K)--4 ($4.2K)--
8/3 KC19.2 ($2.4K)+9.714 ($4.2K)+7.1
8/1 CLE3 ($2.4K)-6.53 ($3.7K)-3.9
7/31 CLE12.2 ($2.5K)--9 ($3.4K)--
7/30 CLE18.7 ($2.7K)+9.214 ($4.1K)+7.1
7/29 @BOS0 ($3K)-9.50 ($3.5K)-6.9
7/28 @BOS0 ($2K)-9.50 ($3.5K)-6.9
6/13 @DET0--0--
6/12 @DET12.7--9--
6/10 LAA0--0--
6/9 LAA9--8--
6/8 LAA9.5--7--
6/6 CHW0--0--
6/5 CHW0--0--
6/5 CHW9.5--7--
6/3 CLE6.2--4--
6/1 CLE9.5--7--
5/31 CLE28.7--21--
5/30 @KC22.7--16--
5/29 @KC6.5--5--
5/28 @KC22.2--16--
5/27 @SEA6--5--
5/26 @SEA6--4--
5/25 @SEA0--0--
4/27 CIN9.7 ($3.6K)--7 ($3.9K)--
4/26 @NYY9.2 ($3.6K)--7 ($4K)--
4/25 @NYY31.2 ($3.5K)+21.723+16.1
4/24 @NYY6.2 ($3.7K)--4--
4/23 @NYY0 ($3.6K)-9.50 ($4.1K)-6.9
4/22 @TB6.5 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.1K)--
4/21 @TB3.5 ($3.6K)-62-4.9
4/20 @TB0 ($3.7K)-9.50 ($4.1K)-6.9
4/18 CLE18.7 ($3.7K)+9.214 ($4K)+7.1
4/17 CLE3 ($3.7K)-6.53 ($4.2K)-3.9
4/12 CHW6 ($3.9K)--5 ($3.9K)--
4/10 HOU3 ($4.2K)-6.53 ($3.9K)-3.9
4/9 HOU0 ($4.2K)-9.50 ($4.1K)-6.9
4/7 SEA21.7 ($4.4K)+12.215 ($4.3K)+8.1
4/5 SEA25.2 ($4K)+15.718 ($4K)+11.1
4/4 @PIT25.4 ($4.2K)+15.919 ($4K)+12.1
4/2 @PIT12.2 ($3.7K)--9 ($4.1K)--
4/1 @BAL18.7 ($3.5K)+9.214 ($4.3K)+7.1
3/31 @BAL22.2 ($3.3K)+12.716 ($4.4K)+9.1
3/29 @BAL0 ($3.5K)-9.50 ($4.7K)-6.9