Daily Fantasy Projection: Tanner Roark

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Roark is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 13.8 DK pts (#13 among pitchers). At $7600 he is expected to be the #9 pitcher. Based on 4/24 salaries and projected points per dollar, Roark is worth $7.3K. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: CC Sabathia (14.1 FP), Anibal Sanchez (15.5 FP), Jhoulys Chacin (14.2 FP), Jordan Lyles (14.9 FP), and Jefry Rodriguez (16.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 14.4 FPs, a value reached in 17 of 35 games (49%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 46%.

  • 4/24 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: CIN 4.6 (#12 Most Today) vs ATL 4.9 (#9 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 13.83 Fantasy Points (#16), 0.29 wins (#15), 0.33 losses (#18 lowest), 5.03 strikeouts (#10), 5.79 innings (#10), 1.36 WHIP (#25), 4.29 ERA (#22),
Lower SalaryT. RoarkHigher Salary
C. Sabathia (14 FP)14 FPM. Soroka (14 FP)
A. Sanchez (16 FP)#9 Starting Pitcher 
J. Chacin (14 FP) 
 
J. Lyles (15 FP) 
 
J. Rodriguez (17 FP) 
 

FANDUEL VALUE: Tanner Roark is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 27.9 FD pts (#10 among pitchers). He is the #12 highest priced pitcher ($7400). Based on 4/24 salaries and projected points per dollar, Roark is worth $7.5K. Instead of Roark consider these better options at lower salaries: Anibal Sanchez (28.9 FP), Jake Junis (28.9 FP), and Jefry Rodriguez (30.3 FP). CC Sabathia (26.8 FP), Adam Wainwright (25.2 FP), Vincent Velasquez (27.9 FP), Mike Soroka (26.8 FP), and Chris Paddack (27.4 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Roark but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 27.4 FPs, a value reached in 18 of 35 games (51%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 47%.

Roark is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

When compared to other starting pitchers in week 6 instead of Roark consider these better options at lower start percentages: Rich Hill (3.8 FP), Chase Anderson (3.2 FP), and Freddy Peralta (5.3 FP). CC Sabathia (1.6 FP), Zack Greinke (2.1 FP), David Price (1.2 FP), Brett Anderson (2.5 FP), and Jake Arrieta (2.1 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Roark but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 16% of leagues he is expected to produce 0.2 fantasy points (WK 6). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #86 starting pitcher of week 6. He is projected to be better than that (the #43 starting pitcher). His per game projected FP average is 1.4 which is better than his actual per game average (-0.8). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 2 games.

Lower Start%T. Roark WK 6Higher Start%
R. Hill (4 FP)2.7 FPC. Sabathia (1.6 FP)
C. Anderson (3 FP)#86 Starting PitcherZ. Greinke (2.1 FP)
F. Peralta (5 FP) 
D. Price (1.2 FP)
 
 
B. Anderson (2.5 FP)
 
 
J. Arrieta (2.1 FP)

He is projected for 2.8 fantasy points in week 6 (#43 SP) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
2.75 (#43) 
Wins0.65 (#24) 
 
Losses 
 
0.64 (#142)
Quality Starts1.07 (#13) 
 
Strikeouts9.82 (#15) 
 
Innings12.28 (#7) 
 
Walks3.44 (#23) 
 

  • Based on 4/24 start percentages, Tanner Roark is valued behind Anderson and above Hellickson but the projections rank Hellickson over Tanner Roark in week 6.
  • Apr 29Apr 30May 1May 2May 3May 4May 5
    0.9 FP @NYM--------1.9 FP vs SF--

    Tanner Roark last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    4/18 @SD8 FP, 34 FD, 20 DK5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 4 HA, 2 BBI, WIN
    4/13 vs STL-1 FP, 28 FD, 15 DK5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K, 6 HA, 1 BBI, LOSS
    4/6 @PIT-5 FP, 18 FD, 8 DK5 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 7 HA, 2 BBI
    4/1 vs MIL-5 FP, 22 FD, 10 DK4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 6 HA, 3 BBI, WIN
    9/16 @ATL5 FP, 25 FD, 14 DK5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K, 5 HA, 2 BBI

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Ranking by ownership percentage (30%), Tanner Roark is expected to be the #100 starting pitcher for the rest of the season. The projections indicate that he is likely to fall short of higher market expectations. He is only projected to be the #124 starting pitcher. He is projected for 2 fantasy points in 25 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#127) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Tanner Roark behind Cahill and above Fiers but the projections rank Fiers over Tanner Roark.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    2 (#124) 
    Wins8 (#95) 
     
    Losses 
     
    9 (#149)
    Quality Starts13 (#59) 
     
    Strikeouts126 (#70) 
     
    Innings154 (#36) 
     
    Walks50 (#33) 
     
    ERA 
    3.97 (#120) 
    WHIP1.23 (#92) 
     

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 3 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of -1 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL-1 FP per Week22
    Week 2-9.7 (2 games -4.8 per game)-8.7
    Week 3-1.2 (1 games)+-0.2-0.2
    Week 47.8 (1 games)+8.8

    FANDUEL SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 25.5 points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. His floor was 1000 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On FanDuel it was -1000 FPs. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average).

    GameFanDuel PointsSalaryGood GameBad Game
    All25.5$7.2K00
    4/18 @SD34--$7.3K00
    4/13 STL28--$6.7K00
    4/6 @PIT18--$6.9K00
    4/1 MIL22--$7.8K00