Diamondbacks Firesale: Goldschmidt Makes Cardinals a Likely Wildcard Team, Corbin Makes Nationals a Top Contender

1HOUSTON ASTROS 104-59 | 2019 Projection: 98 Wins
Win 61% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 101.6 wins. Their 103 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was in road games. Their 56.8% home win percentage was much worse than expected (66.5%). They won 70.4% on the road which was much better than expected (58.9%). We are only projecting 97.5 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 92.4 wins.

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2BOSTON RED SOX 109-54 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 108 games vs an expected win total of 95.3. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 51-30 on the road and were expected to win 44.6. Their 70.4% home win percentage was better than expected (62.5%). In simulations for next season they are averaging 100.7 wins and are projected to finish first in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 97.5 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Red Sox could take a step back next season.

3LOS ANGELES DODGERS 94-71 | 2019 Projection: 101 Wins
Win 66% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 97.3 wins. Their 91 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 54.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (63%). They won 58% on the road which was as expected (57.1%). We are projecting a +10.1 win improvement next season. They are averaging 101.1 wins per simulation and are projected to finish first in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #2 ranked Nationals who are projected for 94.5 wins.

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4NEW YORK YANKEES 101-63 | 2019 Projection: 98 Wins
Win 62% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 100 wins. Their 100 actual wins was below expectation. They won 58% on the road which was as expected (58%). They won 53 at home and were expected to win 53. In simulations for next season they are averaging 98.5 wins and are projected to finish second in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #3 ranked Astros who are projected for 97.5 wins.

5CLEVELAND INDIANS 91-72 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 59% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 99.8 wins. Their 91 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 51.9% on the road which was much worse than expected (58.9%). They won 49 at home and were expected to win 52.1. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 92 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Rays who are projected for 90.8 wins.

6WASHINGTON NATIONALS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 94 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Nationals could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 82 games vs an expected win total of 91. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They won 50.6% on the road which was worse than expected (52.3%). They won 41 at home and were expected to win 48.6. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 94.5 wins per sim, which is a solid +12.5 improvement and are projected to finish second in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #3 ranked Brewers who are projected for 91.8 wins.

7MILWAUKEE BREWERS 98-67 | 2019 Projection: 92 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 95 games vs an expected win total of 83.4. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 38.7. Their 63% home win percentage was better than expected (55.2%). We are only projecting 91.8 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.3 wins.

8CHICAGO CUBS 95-69 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 57% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 95 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 43.2. They won 51 at home and were expected to win 48.7. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 90.7 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #5 ranked Cardinals who are projected for 88.3 wins.

9ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 88-74 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 56% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 88 games vs an expected win total of 85.3. Their strength was in road games. They went 45-36 on the road and were expected to win 40.2. They won 43 at home and were expected to win 45.2. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 88 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Braves who are projected for 84.4 wins.

10TAMPA BAY RAYS 90-72 | 2019 Projection: 91 Wins
Win 55% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 90 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +11.2 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 63% home win percentage was much better than expected (51.8%). They won 48.1% on the road which was better than expected (45.5%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 91 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #6 ranked Athletics who are projected for 87.7 wins.

11OAKLAND ATHLETICS 97-66 | 2019 Projection: 88 Wins
Win 53% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 81.3 wins. Their 97 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. They won 50 at home and were expected to win 43.5. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 87.7 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #7 ranked Twins who are projected for 86.2 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Athletics could take a step back next season.

12NEW YORK METS 77-85 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

If the Mets play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 77 games vs an expected win total of 79.7. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 40-41 on the road and were expected to win 37.1. They won 37 at home and were expected to win 42.7. In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 84.2 wins per sim, which is a solid +7.2 improvement and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 82.8 wins.

13ATLANTA BRAVES 90-74 | 2019 Projection: 84 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 90 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +8.7 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They won 58% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). They won 43 at home and were expected to win 43.5. We are only projecting 84.4 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish sixth in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 82.8 wins. The Braves may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

14MINNESOTA TWINS 78-84 | 2019 Projection: 86 Wins
Win 48% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 78 games vs an expected win total of 79.4. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 60.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.9%). They won 35.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (45.2%). We are projecting a +8.2 win improvement next season. They are averaging 86.2 wins per simulation and are projected to finish seventh in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #8 ranked Angels who are projected for 83.4 wins.

15COLORADO ROCKIES 92-74 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 51% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 91 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +9.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 44-37 on the road and were expected to win 36.6. They won 47 at home and were expected to win 45. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 82.8 wins and are projected to finish eighth in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 80.3 wins.

16ARIZONA D-BACKS 82-80 | 2019 Projection: 80 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 84.8 wins. Their 82 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. Their 49.4% home win percentage was worse than expected (55.6%). They won 51.9% on the road which was better than expected (49.1%). We are projecting a drop in wins to 80.3 for next season and are projected to finish ninth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 82.8 wins.

17LOS ANGELES ANGELS 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 83 Wins
Win 52% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 82.4 wins. Their 80 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 38.1. Their 51.9% home win percentage was worse than expected (54.7%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 83.4 wins per sim, which is a solid +3.4 improvement and are projected to finish eighth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #9 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76 wins.

18PITTSBURGH PIRATES 82-79 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 50% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 82 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.3 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 38-43 on the road and were expected to win 36.2. Their 55% home win percentage was better than expected (53.1%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 77.6 wins and are projected to finish tenth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 80.3 wins.

19PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 80-82 | 2019 Projection: 78 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 82.6 wins. Their 80 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 31-50 on the road and were expected to win 38.2. They won 49 at home and were expected to win 44.4. We are projecting a drop in wins to 77.6 for next season and are projected to finish eleventh in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked D-Backs who are projected for 80.3 wins.

20TEXAS RANGERS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 76 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Rangers are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. Improvement on 67 wins is somewhat expected. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 67 games vs an expected win total of 69.9. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 42% home win percentage was worse than expected (46.3%). They won 40.7% on the road which was as expected (39.9%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 76 wins per sim, which is a solid +9 improvement and are projected to finish ninth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #8 ranked Angels who are projected for 83.4 wins.

21SEATTLE MARINERS 89-73 | 2019 Projection: 75 Wins
Win 47% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 89 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +7.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 55.6% home win percentage was better than expected (53.9%). They won 54.3% on the road which was much better than expected (46.7%). We are only projecting 75 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish tenth in the American League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #9 ranked Rangers who are projected for 76 wins. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Mariners could take a step back next season.

22SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 44% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 75 wins. Their 73 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They won 38.3% on the road which was worse than expected (42%). They won 42 at home and were expected to win 41. The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 69.1 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Padres who are projected for 69.2 wins.

23KANSAS CITY ROYALS 58-104 | 2019 Projection: 71 Wins
Win 41% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Royals are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. But at 58 wins, it is not hard to improve. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 58 games vs an expected win total of 66.2. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 26-55 on the road and were expected to win 30.4. Their 39.5% home win percentage was worse than expected (44.1%). In the latest simulations for next season they are averaging 71 wins per sim, which is a solid +13 improvement and are projected to finish eleventh in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #10 ranked Mariners who are projected for 75 wins.

24CHICAGO WHITE SOX 62-100 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 40% of Neutral Field Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.9 wins. Their 62 actual wins was below expectation. Home ice was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 32-49 on the road and were expected to win 30.8. They won 30 at home and were expected to win 36.1. We are projecting a +6.8 win improvement next season. They are averaging 68.8 wins per simulation and are projected to finish twelfth in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Royals who are projected for 71 wins.

25CINCINNATI REDS 67-95 | 2019 Projection: 66 Wins
Win 43% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 67 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 30-51 on the road and were expected to win 33.4. Their 45.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (47.9%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 66 wins per sim and are projected to finish second to last in the National League. There is not much of a gap between them and the #12 ranked Padres who are projected for 69.2 wins.

26SAN DIEGO PADRES 66-96 | 2019 Projection: 69 Wins
Win 42% of Neutral Field Simulations

Their 66 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 35-46 on the road and were expected to win 31.6. They won 31 at home and were expected to win 37.7. We are projecting a +3.2 win improvement next season. They are averaging 69.2 wins per simulation and are projected to finish twelfth in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #11 ranked Phillies who are projected for 77.6 wins.

27TORONTO BLUE JAYS 73-89 | 2019 Projection: 66 Wins
Win 39% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 73 games vs an expected win total of 75.7. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 33-48 on the road and were expected to win 35.3. Their 49.4% home win percentage was as expected (49.9%). We are only projecting 66.4 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish third to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #12 ranked White Sox who are projected for 68.8 wins. The Blue Jays may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

28MIAMI MARLINS 63-98 | 2019 Projection: 61 Wins
Win 38% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 63 games vs an expected win total of 62.7. Their strength was at home. They went 25-55 on the road and were expected to win 28.7. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (41.9%). We are projecting a drop in wins to 61.1 for next season and are projected to finish last in the National League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Reds who are projected for 66.5 wins.

29DETROIT TIGERS 64-98 | 2019 Projection: 60 Wins
Win 36% of Neutral Field Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 64 games vs an expected win total of 66.8. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 26-55 on the road and were expected to win 30.8. Their 46.9% home win percentage was better than expected (44.4%). We are only projecting 60.3 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish second to last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #13 ranked Blue Jays who are projected for 66.4 wins. The Tigers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

30BALTIMORE ORIOLES 47-115 | 2019 Projection: 56 Wins
Win 35% of Neutral Field Simulations

The Orioles could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral field simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. This improvement does not necessarily mean they are going to be good considering the low bar they have to improve on. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 66.6 wins. Their 47 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 23.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.3%). They won 28 at home and were expected to win 35.6. We are projecting a +9.3 win improvement next season. They are averaging 56.3 wins per simulation and are projected to finish last in the American League. There is a sizable gap between them and the #14 ranked Tigers who are projected for 60.3 wins.

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