Dinelson Lamet Will Breakout

SCOUT ANALYST JOHN BOLLMAN'S TAKE

Lamet returned in 2019 after missing all of 2018 following TJ surgery. Lamet actually upped his Ks/9 from 10.9 to 12.9 following his surgery while also lowering his ERA from 4.57 in 2017 to 4.07 last season. Lamet had a 5.09 ERA in his first 5 starts last season, but finished with a 3.6 ERA over his final 9 starts. A majority of Lamet’s struggles last season came at home where he had a 5.25 ERA in 7 starts compared to a 2.92 ERA in 7 road starts. In 2017, Lamet was actually better at home than on the road so I expect that to even out this season. Lamet and Chris Pddack could be a very good 1-2 punch for the Padres this season.

REST OF SEASON OUTLOOK AND POSITION RANK

Expect Dinelson Lamet to be a reliable fantasy starter the rest of the season. His 42.45 projected fantasy points puts him at #57 behind Joey Lucchesi and ahead of Jordan Montgomery. He has averaged 0.25 fantasy points in his past 14 games, which is less than our projected per game average. He is projected to average 1.51 fantasy points. His rank based on avg proj (#63) is worse than his rank based on total fantasy points. He is overrated if you compare his ownership based rank with his projection rank. At 91%, he is the #37 most highly owned starting pitcher. Dinelson Lamet is expected to improve on last season's #99 fantasy position rank.

REST OF SEASON RANK (SP) PROJECTIONFANTASY STATS SINCE 2019
#55 Carlos Martinez (66% OWN)47 FP, 1.81 per game184 FP, 48 gp, 3.83 per game (#24)
#56 Joey Lucchesi (76% OWN)45 FP, 1.64 per game184 FP, 48 gp, 3.83 per game (#24)
#57 Dinelson Lamet (91% OWN)42 FP, 1.51 per game184 FP, 48 gp, 3.83 per game (#24)
#58 Jordan Montgomery (55% OWN)41 FP, 1.51 per game184 FP, 48 gp, 3.83 per game (#24)
#59 Steven Matz (54% OWN)41 FP, 1.51 per game184 FP, 48 gp, 3.83 per game (#24)

SIT EM ALERT: DINELSON LAMET PROJECTED FOR FEWER FPS THAN PATRICK SANDOVAL IN WEEK 3

Dinelson Lamet is projected for 0.41 fantasy points in one game which projects to being the #84 ranked starting pitcher. This may be a week you want to sit Dinelson Lamet. This is projected to be a below average game with fewer fantasy points than he is projected to average per game the rest of the season. He is ranked above Julio Teheran but behind Patrick Sandoval. Week 4 will be better based on projected rank (#61). He is projected for 1.57 fantasy points.

4/6 TO 4/12 RANK (SP)PROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#82 Rick Porcello (43% OWN)0.53 FP (18% ST)0.91 FP
#83 Patrick Sandoval (3% OWN)0.41 FP-0.65 FP
#84 Dinelson Lamet (91% OWN)0.41 FP (81% ST)1.51 FP
#85 Julio Teheran (39% OWN)0.37 FP (16% ST)1.26 FP
#86 Alec Mills (1% OWN)0.36 FP (1% ST)0.95 FP
4/13 TO 4/19 RANK (SP)PROJECTIONROS FP PROJ AVG
#59 Jordan Montgomery (55% OWN)1.67 FP (25% ST)1.51 FP
#60 Rick Porcello (43% OWN)1.6 FP (18% ST)0.91 FP
#61 Dinelson Lamet (91% OWN)1.57 FP (81% ST)1.51 FP
#62 Mike Minor (92% OWN)1.28 FP (77% ST)1.29 FP
#63 Jeff Samardzija (23% OWN)1.21 FP (10% ST)0.49 FP

FANTASY PROJECTIONS AND ACTUAL STATS

The tables below show projected stats (totals and averages) for the rest of the season and upcoming weeks. Below the projection are actual stats from last season.

DINELSON LAMETFPWINLOSSIPKBB
2020 Projection42.510.07.514815947
-- Per Game (28 Proj)1.50.350.275.35.61.7
4/6 to 4/12 (2 Games)0.410.250.325.45.21.8
4/13 to 4/19 (2 Games)1.60.420.235.05.61.5
2019 Season3.5357310530
-- Per Game (14 GP)0.250.210.365.27.52.1