Does Brantley's Latest DraftKings Projection Justify His $4.1K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 8.3 DraftKings pts Michael Brantley is the #28 ranked outfielder. At $4100 he is expected to be the #51 outfielder. Based on the projection, Brantley is worth $4.6K. There are 7 other options at $4100 (Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Gregory Polanco, Kyle Schwarber, Nomar Mazara, Teoscar Hernandez, Tim Locastro) and Brantley is ranked #2 among the 8. Instead of Brantley consider these better options at lower salaries: Wil Myers (8.8 FP), Randal Grichuk (8.4 FP), Christin Stewart (8.9 FP), and Dwight Smith (9.4 FP). Adam Jones (7.9 FP), Thomas Pham (8.2 FP), Kole Calhoun (7.3 FP), Domingo Santana (6.5 FP), and Yasiel Puig (7.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Brantley but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.4 FPs, a value reached in 102 of 219 games (47%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

  • 6/22 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: HOU 4.6 (#14 Most Today) vs NYY 5.4 (#6 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 8.33 Fantasy Points (#27), 4.26 plate appearances (#7), 0.315 BA (#8), 0.868 OPS (#24), 0.15 HR (#42), 0.53 RBI (#37), 0.51 runs (#48), 0.05 stolen bases (#58),
Lower SalaryM. BrantleyHigher Salary
W. Myers (9 FP)8 FPA. Jones (8 FP)
R. Grichuk (8 FP)#51 OutfieldT. Pham (8 FP)
C. Stewart (9 FP) 
K. Calhoun (7 FP)
D. Smith (9 FP) 
D. Santana (6 FP)
 
 
Y. Puig (8 FP)

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 10.7 FanDuel pts Michael Brantley is the #33 ranked outfielder. He is the #27 highest priced outfielder ($3700). Based on 6/22 salaries and projected points per dollar, Brantley is worth $3.6K. There are 7 other options at $3700 (Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Starling Marte, Michael Conforto, Austin Riley, Nick Senzel, Oscar Mercado) and Brantley is ranked #3 among the 8. Instead of Brantley consider these better options at lower salaries: Jarrod Dyson (11.1 FP), Wil Myers (11.7 FP), Randal Grichuk (10.9 FP), Nick Castellanos (11.7 FP), and Joc Pederson (12.2 FP). Giancarlo Stanton (9.6 FP), Khris Davis (9.6 FP), Domingo Santana (8.5 FP), Eddie Rosario (10.7 FP), and Max Kepler (9.8 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Brantley but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 11.1 FPs, a value reached in 93 of 219 games (42%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

Brantley is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Michael Brantley is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #13 while his projection (rest of week 13) rank is #21. In week 14 rankings vs other outfielders instead of Brantley consider these better options at lower start percentages: Nick Markakis (18.1 FP), Thomas Pham (17.9 FP), Adam Eaton (18.2 FP), Joc Pederson (22.8 FP), and George Springer (21.4 FP). He is projected for more points than 2 other outfielders starting in more leagues: Mookie Betts (17.4 FP) and Eddie Rosario (15.6 FP). Starting in all virtually all leagues he is expected to produce 18.9 fantasy points (WK 14). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #10 outfielder of the week, but he is projected to be the #18 outfielder.

Lower Start%M. Brantley WK 14Higher Start%
N. Markakis (18 FP)18 FPM. Betts (17 FP)
T. Pham (18 FP)#10 OutfieldE. Rosario (16 FP)
A. Eaton (18 FP) 
 
J. Pederson (23 FP) 
 
G. Springer (21 FP) 
 

He is projected for 17.9 fantasy points in week 14 (#17 OF) in 5 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
17.89 (#17) 
Avg0.333 (#2) 
 
OPS0.84 (#8) 
 
Home Runs 
 
0.71 (#59)
Runs 
 
3.21 (#32)
RBI 
3.26 (#21) 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.36 (#46)

  • Based on 6/22 start percentages, Michael Brantley is valued behind Rosario and above Ozuna but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 14.
  • Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30
    2.7 FP vs PIT3.2 FP vs PIT3.4 FP vs PIT3.5 FP vs SEA2.8 FP vs SEA2.4 FP vs SEA

    Michael Brantley last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/21 @NYY-1 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-5
    6/20 @NYY1 FP, 3 FD, 3 DK1-5
    6/19 @CIN9 FP, 28 FD, 22 DK3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R
    6/18 @CIN5 FP, 15 FD, 13 DK3-4, 1 R
    6/17 @CIN2 FP, 10 FD, 7 DK1-5, 1 RBI

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among outfielders is #17. As of 6/22, Michael Brantley is the #13 ranked outfielder based on ownership percentage (99%). The market is higher on Michael Brantley than the projections are so we consider him to be overvalued. He is projected for 246 fantasy points in 77 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#18) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Michael Brantley behind Harper and above Pham but the projections rank Pham over Michael Brantley.

    Lower Own%M. Brantley ROSHigher Own%
    T. Pham (251 FP)246 FPE. Rosario (237 FP)
    D. Dietrich (249 FP)#13 Outfield 
    M. Kepler (248 FP) 
     
    T. Mancini (251 FP) 
     
    A. Meadows (248 FP) 
     
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    246 (#17) 
    Avg0.318 (#3) 
     
    OPS 
    0.857 (#18) 
    Home Runs 
     
    10 (#55)
    Runs 
     
    43 (#38)
    RBI 
    44 (#25) 
    Stolen Bases 
     
    5 (#43)
    Strikeouts 
    34 (#22) 

    His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 13 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 18.3 FPs in 2 of them. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL18.3 FP per Week21
    Week 113.5 (4 games 3.4 per game)
    Week 215.5 (6 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 318.5 (6 games 3.1 per game)
    Week 418.5 (5 games 3.7 per game)
    Week 525.5 (7 games 3.6 per game)
    Week 629.5 (5 games 5.9 per game)+11.2
    Week 728.5 (7 games 4.1 per game)+10.2
    Week 817.5 (6 games 2.9 per game)
    Week 912.5 (6 games 2.1 per game)
    Week 1020 (6 games 3.3 per game)
    Week 117.5 (5 games 1.5 per game)-10.8
    Week 1215 (5 games 3 per game)
    Week 1316.5 (5 games 3.3 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 11 points and on DraftKings it was 8.4 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 17 and on FanDuel it was 24.9 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All11 ($3.9K)18 G, 20 B8.4 ($4.6K)15 G, 20 B
    6/21 @NYY0 ($3.8K)-110 ($4.4K)-8.4
    6/20 @NYY3 ($3.7K)-83 ($4.1K)-5.4
    6/19 @CIN28.2 ($3.7K)+17.222+13.6
    6/18 @CIN15.2 ($3.9K)--13 ($4.5K)+4.6
    6/17 @CIN9.5 ($3.8K)--7 ($4.2K)--
    6/16 TOR6 ($3.9K)--5 ($4.4K)--
    6/15 TOR3 ($3.8K)-82-6.4
    6/14 TOR12.4 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.5K)--
    6/12 MIL3 ($3.8K)-83 ($4.3K)-5.4
    6/11 MIL24.9 ($3.9K)+13.919 ($4.1K)+10.6
    6/8 BAL0 ($4.2K)-110-8.4
    6/7 BAL0 ($4.2K)-110 ($4.7K)-8.4
    6/6 @SEA6 ($4.1K)--5--
    6/5 @SEA6 ($3.9K)--5 ($4.6K)--
    6/4 @SEA15.5 ($3.8K)--12 ($4.6K)--
    6/2 @OAK6.5 ($3.9K)--5--
    6/1 @OAK9 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.4K)--
    5/31 @OAK3 ($4K)-83 ($4.1K)-5.4
    5/29 CHC12 ($3.7K)--10 ($4.3K)--
    5/28 CHC22 ($3.7K)+1116 ($4.3K)+7.6
    5/27 CHC9.2--7--
    5/26 BOS0 ($4K)-110 ($4.6K)-8.4
    5/25 BOS6 ($3.9K)--5 ($4.4K)--
    5/23 CHW6 ($4.1K)--6 ($5.3K)--
    5/22 CHW6.2 ($4K)--5 ($5.2K)--
    5/21 CHW13 ($4K)--9 ($5K)--
    5/20 CHW9 ($3.9K)--8 ($5.6K)--
    5/19 @BOS0 ($3.8K)-110 ($4.8K)-8.4
    5/18 @BOS18.7 ($4K)+7.715 ($5.3K)+6.6
    5/17 @BOS6.2 ($4K)--4 ($5.2K)-4.4
    5/15 @DET6 ($4.1K)--6 ($5.2K)--
    5/14 @DET19.2 ($4.2K)+8.214 ($5.4K)+5.6
    5/13 @DET6 ($4.3K)--6 ($5.3K)--
    5/12 TEX0 ($4.2K)-110 ($5.5K)-8.4
    5/11 TEX28.1 ($4.3K)+17.121 ($5.2K)+12.6
    5/10 TEX3 ($4.3K)-83 ($5.6K)-5.4
    5/9 TEX6.5 ($4K)--4 ($4.4K)-4.4
    5/8 KC43.9 ($4.1K)+32.932 ($5.1K)+23.6
    5/7 KC9 ($4.1K)--8 ($5K)--
    5/6 KC0 ($4.1K)-110 ($4.9K)-8.4
    5/5 @LAA31.4 ($4K)+20.423+14.6
    5/4 @LAA35.2 ($4K)+24.225 ($4.6K)+16.6
    5/2 @MIN3 ($4K)-83 ($4.7K)-5.4
    4/30 @MIN21.4 ($4.1K)+10.417 ($4.8K)+8.6
    4/29 @MIN6 ($4K)--6 ($4.8K)--
    4/28 CLE6.2 ($3.9K)--5--
    4/27 CLE0 ($4K)-110 ($4.9K)-8.4
    4/26 CLE9 ($3.8K)--8 ($4.7K)--
    4/25 CLE6 ($3.6K)--6 ($4.2K)--
    4/24 MIN31.4 ($3.8K)+20.423 ($4.8K)+14.6
    4/23 MIN6.5 ($3.9K)--5 ($4.5K)--
    4/22 MIN24.9 ($3.8K)+13.919 ($4.4K)+10.6
    4/21 @TEX22.2 ($3.9K)+11.216 ($4.6K)+7.6
    4/20 @TEX9 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.6K)--
    4/19 @TEX18.2 ($3.7K)+7.212 ($4.5K)--
    4/17 @OAK9.5 ($3.9K)--7 ($4.1K)--
    4/16 @OAK6 ($3.8K)--5 ($4.2K)--
    4/14 @SEA19 ($3.7K)+813+4.6
    4/13 @SEA6.5 ($4.1K)--5 ($4.1K)--
    4/12 @SEA6.2 ($3.9K)--4 ($4.1K)-4.4
    4/10 NYY15.4 ($3.6K)--12 ($3.7K)--
    4/9 NYY21.7 ($3.6K)+10.717 ($4K)+8.6
    4/8 NYY3 ($3.5K)-83 ($3.9K)-5.4
    4/7 OAK15.7 ($3.5K)--12 ($4.2K)--
    4/6 OAK28.4 ($3.5K)+17.421 ($4.2K)+12.6
    4/5 OAK0 ($3.5K)-110 ($4.2K)-8.4
    4/3 @TEX0 ($3.6K)-110 ($4.3K)-8.4
    4/2 @TEX12.5 ($3.7K)--7 ($4.5K)--
    4/1 @TEX3 ($3.8K)-82 ($4.4K)-6.4
    3/31 @TB0 ($3.9K)-110 ($4K)-8.4
    3/30 @TB3 ($4K)-83-5.4
    3/29 @TB16 ($3.5K)--12 ($3.5K)--
    3/28 @TB21.7 ($3.4K)+10.719 ($4.1K)+10.6