Does Lopez's Latest FanDuel Projection Justify His $2K Salary?


Lopez is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 2.5 FD pts (#97 among pitchers). He is the #89 highest priced C/1Bs ($2000). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Lopez is worth $0.9K. There are many other options (20) at $2000 and Lopez is ranked #14 among the 21. He is projected for more points than 2 higher priced options: Erik Kratz (2 FP) and Jose Briceno (2.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 2.1 FPs, a value reached in 28 of 37 games (76%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 48%.

  • 3/28 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: ATL 4.6 (#11 Most Today) vs PHI 5 (#5 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 2.55 Fantasy Points (#96), 1.16 plate appearances (#96), 0.221 BA (#88), 0.661 OPS (#84), 0.04 HR (#84), 0.16 RBI (#87), 0.14 runs (#92), 0.01 stolen bases (#25),


Based on start%, Knapp is expected to produce more fantasy points than Rafael Lopez and the projections validate that assessment. Holaday is the player that the market has ranked 1 spot below Rafael Lopez but the projections have Holaday putting up more fantasy points. Given he is starting in 0% of leagues there is no market expectation for any real fantasy production in week 1.

He is projected for 2 fantasy points in week 1 (#72 C) in limited action.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
1.98 (#72) 
Avg0.22 (#57) 
OPS0.581 (#54) 
Home Runs0.12 (#62) 
Runs0.42 (#62) 
RBI0.5 (#62) 
Stolen Bases0.03 (#23) 

  • Based on 3/22 start percentages, Rafael Lopez is valued behind Knapp and above Holaday and the projections agree for this week.
  • Rafael Lopez last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    7/20 @PHI0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    7/15 vs CHC1 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-0, 1 BB
    7/12 vs LAD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/22 @SF4 FP, 12 FD, 9 DK1-3, 1 R, 1 BB
    6/20 vs OAK0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-0

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    The latest projections virtually match what is expected of Rafael Lopez, at least in terms of position ranking. Ranking by ownership percentage (under 1%) and season fantasy rankings, Rafael Lopez is expected to be the #68 catcher for the season. Projections rank him #69. He is projected for 104 fantasy points in 41 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #19 highest average. The market ranks Rafael Lopez behind Knapp and above Holaday and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    104 (#69) 
    Avg0.227 (#53) 
    OPS0.673 (#51) 
    Home Runs6 (#60) 
    21 (#65) 
    25 (#63) 
    Stolen Bases1 (#22) 
    Strikeouts48 (#12) 

    His projected fantasy points is lower than you would like given his relatively strong OPS projection.


    • 1-3, 1 R, 1 BB
    • FanDuel: $2100, 12.2 FPs (+$1517 value, +5.1 FPs)
    • DraftKings: $2700, 9 FPs (+$2048 value, +3.9 FPs)