Does Schebler's Latest DraftKings Projection Justify His $3.5K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

There are 3 other options at $3500 (A.J. Pollock, Isaac Galloway, Nick Martini) and Schebler is the best option of these 4. These are 4 better options at lower salaries: Jackie Bradley (7 FP), Chris Taylor (6.3 FP), Joey Rickard (6.5 FP), and Billy McKinney (7.5 FP). Curtis Granderson (5.9 FP), Melky Cabrera (5.4 FP), Cameron Maybin (5 FP), Carlos Gonzalez (4.8 FP), and Matt Joyce (4.7 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Schebler but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 6 FPs, a value reached in 58 of 136 games (43%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 37%.

  • 5/3 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: CIN 4.6 (#6 Most Today) vs SF 3.9 (#18 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 6.04 Fantasy Points (#56), 3.44 plate appearances (#57), 0.233 BA (#77), 0.738 OPS (#61), 0.12 HR (#42), 0.42 RBI (#44), 0.46 runs (#44), 0.02 stolen bases (#72),
Lower SalaryS. ScheblerHigher Salary
J. Bradley (7 FP)6 FPC. Granderson (6 FP)
C. Taylor (6 FP)#94 OutfieldM. Cabrera (5 FP)
J. Rickard (6 FP) 
C. Maybin (5 FP)
B. McKinney (8 FP) 
C. Gonzalez (5 FP)
 
 
M. Joyce (5 FP)

FANDUEL VALUE: Scott Schebler is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 8.1 FD pts (#67 among outfielders). At $2400 he is expected to be the #100 outfielder. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $2.8K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). There are 4 other options at $2400 (Kyle Schwarber, Ben Gamel, Albert Almora, Ryan Cordell) and Schebler is ranked #2 among the 5. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Chris Owings (8.5 FP), Jackie Bradley (9.4 FP), Chris Taylor (8.4 FP), Joey Rickard (8.5 FP), and Billy McKinney (9.9 FP). Curtis Granderson (7.9 FP), Melky Cabrera (7 FP), Cameron Maybin (6.6 FP), Ben Zobrist (7.3 FP), and Carlos Gonzalez (6.2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Schebler but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.7 FPs, a value reached in 78 of 136 games (57%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

Schebler is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

In week 7 rankings vs other outfielders these are 2 better options at lower start percentages: Christin Stewart (19.1 FP) and Clint Frazier (15.7 FP). Hunter Pence (10.7 FP), Alex Gordon (14 FP), Ben Zobrist (14 FP), Ryan Braun (12.9 FP), and Lorenzo Cain (15 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Schebler but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 6% of leagues he is expected to produce 11.2 fantasy points (WK 7). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #81 outfielder of week 7. He is projected to be better than that (the #40 outfielder). His per game projected FP average is 2.5 which is better than his actual per game average (1.7). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

Lower Start%S. Schebler WK 7Higher Start%
C. Stewart (19 FP)15 FPH. Pence (11 FP)
C. Frazier (16 FP)#81 OutfieldA. Gordon (14 FP)
 
 
B. Zobrist (14 FP)
 
 
R. Braun (13 FP)
 
 
L. Cain (15 FP)

He is projected for 15.3 fantasy points in week 7 (#42 OF) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
15.31 (#42) 
Avg 
 
0.243 (#99)
OPS 
 
0.671 (#73)
Home Runs1.03 (#25) 
 
Runs 
3.06 (#42) 
RBI 
 
2.42 (#64)
Stolen Bases 
 
0.14 (#101)

  • Based on 5/3 start percentages, Scott Schebler is valued behind Fowler and above Gonzalez but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 7.
  • May 6May 7May 8May 9May 10May 11May 12
    2.3 FP vs SF2 FP @OAK2 FP @OAK2.3 FP @OAK2 FP @SF2.4 FP @SF2.3 FP @SF

    Scott Schebler last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/2 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    5/1 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    4/29 @NYM2 FP, 9 FD, 6 DK0-2, 1 R, 2 BB
    4/28 @STL4 FP, 13 FD, 9 DK1-4, 2 RBI
    4/27 @STL1 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-3, 1 R, 1 BB

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    As of 5/3, Scott Schebler is the #88 ranked outfielder based on ownership percentage (17%). Scott Schebler's projection rank is better than their market rank. His fantasy outfielder projection rank is #70. There could be an opportunity to acquire him while the market is still not as high on them as the projections are. Unless someone offers an even better outfielder value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for 265 fantasy points in 111 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#119) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Scott Schebler behind Hernandez and above Pence but the projections rank these players in reverse order.

    Lower Own%S. Schebler ROSHigher Own%
    H. Pence (269 FP)266 FPJ. Bruce (215 FP)
    C. Gonzalez (266 FP)#88 OutfieldM. Gonzalez (235 FP)
    T. Naquin (274 FP) 
    A. Garcia (255 FP)
    B. McKinney (285 FP) 
    L. Garcia (167 FP)
     
     
    A. Pollock (174 FP)
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    265 (#70) 
    Avg 
     
    0.222 (#145)
    OPS 
     
    0.715 (#116)
    Home Runs18 (#43) 
     
    Runs56 (#60) 
     
    RBI 
    48 (#69) 
    Stolen Bases 
     
    3 (#100)
    Strikeouts 
     
    115 (#123)

    He has more relative weaknesses than strengths which hurts his value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 6 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 6.3 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL6.3 FP per Week22
    Week 1-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-7.8
    Week 210.5 (7 games 1.5 per game)+4.2
    Week 313.5 (5 games 2.7 per game)+7.2
    Week 45 (6 games 0.8 per game)
    Week 58 (6 games 1.3 per game)
    Week 62.5 (3 games 0.8 per game)-3.8

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 5.4 points and on DraftKings it was 4 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 8 and 13 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All5.4 ($2.3K)8 G, 14 B4 ($3.6K)7 G, 9 B
    5/2 @NYM0 ($2.4K)-5.40 ($3.2K)-4
    5/1 @NYM0 ($2.3K)-5.40 ($3K)-4
    4/29 @NYM9.2 ($2.5K)+3.86 ($3.2K)+2
    4/28 @STL13 ($2.1K)+7.69 ($3.1K)+5
    4/27 @STL6.2 ($2.1K)--4 ($3.3K)--
    4/26 @STL12.4 ($2K)+78 ($3.3K)+4
    4/25 ATL6.2 ($2.1K)--4 ($3.3K)--
    4/24 ATL0 ($2.1K)-5.40 ($3.6K)-4
    4/23 ATL3 ($2K)--2 ($3.7K)--
    4/21 @SD0 ($2.2K)-5.40 ($3.5K)-4
    4/20 @SD9.2 ($2.3K)+3.89 ($3.4K)+5
    4/19 @SD0 ($2.4K)-5.40 ($3.6K)-4
    4/18 @SD6.2 ($2.4K)--4 ($3.7K)--
    4/17 @LAD0 ($2.4K)-5.40-4
    4/15 @LAD0 ($2.5K)-5.40 ($3.5K)-4
    4/14 STL0 ($2.6K)-5.40-4
    4/13 STL12.7 ($2.6K)+7.39 ($3.9K)+5
    4/11 MIA0 ($2.6K)-5.40-4
    4/10 MIA0 ($2.4K)-5.40-4
    4/9 MIA31.2 ($2.2K)+25.824+20
    4/7 @PIT21.7 ($2.2K)+16.317 ($3.9K)+13
    4/6 @PIT6.2 ($2.3K)--5--
    4/5 @PIT0 ($2.2K)-5.40 ($4.1K)-4
    4/4 @PIT9 ($2.2K)+3.67 ($4.2K)+3
    4/3 MIL0 ($2.3K)-5.40-4
    4/2 MIL3.5 ($2.4K)--2--
    4/1 MIL6 ($2.6K)--4--
    3/31 PIT0 ($2.8K)-5.40 ($4.2K)-4
    3/28 PIT0 ($2.9K)-5.40 ($3.7K)-4