Does Stevenson's Latest DraftKings Projection Justify His $3K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Andrew Stevenson is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 2.3 DK pts (#102 among outfielders). At $3000 he is expected to be the #118 outfielder. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Stevenson is worth $1.4K. There are 5 other options at $3000 (Billy Hamilton, Dalton Pompey, Ryan Cordell, Noel Cuevas, Scott Heineman) and Stevenson is ranked #3 among the 6. These are 4 better options at lower salaries: Aaron Altherr (4.7 FP), Manuel Margot (5.6 FP), JaCoby Jones (3.6 FP), and Jonathan Davis (3.6 FP). He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Jarrod Dyson (1.7 FP), Guillermo Heredia (1.9 FP), and Billy McKinney (1.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 3.9 FPs, a value reached in 13 of 65 games (20%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

  • 5/24 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: WAS 4.7 (#12 Most Today) vs MIA 4.3 (#19 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 2.34 Fantasy Points (#101), 1.25 plate appearances (#105), 0.269 BA (#33), 0.783 OPS (#49), 0.04 HR (#93), 0.16 RBI (#98), 0.18 runs (#100), 0.02 stolen bases (#82),
Lower SalaryA. StevensonHigher Salary
A. Altherr (5 FP)2.3 FPJ. Dyson (1.7 FP)
M. Margot (6 FP)#118 OutfieldG. Heredia (1.9 FP)
J. Jones (4 FP) 
B. McKinney (1.8 FP)
J. Davis (4 FP) 
 

FANDUEL VALUE: Projected for 3.1 FanDuel pts Andrew Stevenson is the #128 ranked outfielder. At $2000 he is expected to be the #142 outfielder. Based on the projection, Stevenson is worth $1.1K. There are many other options (18) at $2000 and Stevenson is ranked #9 among the 19. He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Jarrod Dyson (2.2 FP), Tony Kemp (2.8 FP), Billy McKinney (2.3 FP), and Noel Cuevas (2.9 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 2.1 FPs, a value reached in 27 of 65 games (42%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

Stevenson is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Based on start%, Zagunis is expected to produce more fantasy points than Andrew Stevenson and the projections validate that assessment. Andrew Stevenson should put up more fantasy points than Dickerson who is ranked 1 spot below him based on start%. He is starting in no leagues and with a projected outfielder rank of #125 in week 10 it makes sense.

He is projected for 4.8 fantasy points in week 10 (#125 OF) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
4.8 (#125) 
Avg0.255 (#63) 
 
OPS0.646 (#84) 
 
Home Runs 
0.22 (#122) 
Runs 
1 (#123) 
RBI 
0.92 (#124) 
Stolen Bases0.09 (#113) 
 

  • Based on 5/24 start percentages, Andrew Stevenson is valued behind Zagunis and above Dickerson and the projections agree for this week.
  • May 27May 28May 29May 31Jun 1Jun 2
    0.8 FP vs MIA0.8 FP @ATL0.8 FP @ATL0.9 FP @CIN0.7 FP @CIN0.8 FP @CIN

    Andrew Stevenson last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/6 @MIL0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    5/5 @PHI2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 BB
    5/4 @PHI2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 R
    4/6 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    4/4 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among outfielders is #133. As of 5/24, Andrew Stevenson is the #142 ranked outfielder based on ownership percentage (under 1%) and season fantasy rankings. With a lower market rank than projection rank, consider Andrew Stevenson to be undervalued. While there is value and likely a clear opportunity to acquire him via trade or waiver wire pick up it is probably not worth the roster spot at this time. Even though he is undervalued, he is not projected for more fantasy points than other outfielders with a better market ranking. He is projected for 91 fantasy points in 34 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #67 highest average. The market ranks Andrew Stevenson behind Herrera and above Dickerson and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    91 (#133) 
    Avg0.261 (#60) 
     
    OPS0.782 (#56) 
     
    Home Runs5 (#115) 
     
    Runs 
    19 (#130) 
    RBI 
    17 (#132) 
    Stolen Bases2 (#111) 
     
    Strikeouts34 (#10) 
     

    He does not score as many fantasy points and has fewer RBI than you might expect given his OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 4 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 1.5 fantasy points. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL1.5 FP per Week11
    Week 12 (1 games)
    Week 21 (4 games 0.2 per game)
    Week 63.5 (2 games 1.8 per game)+2
    Week 7-0.5 (1 games)-2

    FANDUEL SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 3.1 FD points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. His floor was 1000 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On FanDuel it was -1000 FPs. He has had an equal number of good (20% above average) and bad games (20% below) on FanDuel.We are only including games where they were in the FanDuel slate and played.

    GameFanDuel PointsSalaryGood GameBad Game
    All3.1$2K33
    5/6 @MIL0--33
    5/5 @PHI6--$2K+2.93
    5/4 @PHI6.2--+2.93
    4/6 @NYM0--$2K+2.9-3.1
    4/4 @NYM0--$2K+2.9-3.1
    4/3 PHI6.2--$2K+3.1-3.1
    4/2 PHI0--$2K+3.1-3.1
    3/30 NYM6.2--$2K+3.1-3.1