Does Thomas's Latest FanDuel Projection Justify His $2K Salary?

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 3.4 FanDuel pts Lane Thomas is the #107 ranked outfielder. He is the #126 highest priced outfielder ($2000). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Thomas is worth $1.1K. There are many other options (10) at $2000 and Thomas is ranked #4 among the 11. Melky Cabrera (2.8 FP), Terrance Gore (3 FP), Jarrett Parker (2.9 FP), Ben Gamel (2.3 FP), and Josh Naylor (1.9 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Thomas but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 2.2 FPs, a value reached in 3 of 11 games (27%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

  • 7/5 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: STL 4.3 (#19 Most Today) vs SF 4.2 (#21 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 3.37 Fantasy Points (#106), 1.44 plate appearances (#104), 0.265 BA (#54), 0.773 OPS (#62), 0.05 HR (#100), 0.16 RBI (#106), 0.17 runs (#107), 0.02 stolen bases (#82),

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Thomas is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 2.6 DK pts (#97 among outfielders). He is the #84 highest priced outfielder ($3600). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Thomas is worth $1.4K. There are 7 other options at $3600 (Melky Cabrera, Josh Reddick, Kole Calhoun, Stephen Piscotty, Jose Martinez, Tyler O'Neill, Niko Goodrum) and Thomas is ranked #6 among the 8. These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Justin Upton (6.9 FP), Dexter Fowler (6.4 FP), Matt Joyce (4.2 FP), Wil Myers (6.9 FP), and Billy Hamilton (5.4 FP). He is projected for more points than 3 higher priced options: Terrance Gore (2.3 FP), Ben Gamel (1.7 FP), and Austin Slater (2.2 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.5 FPs, a value reached in 3 of 11 games (27%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 37%.

Thomas is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Based on start%, Reyes is expected to produce more fantasy points than Lane Thomas and the projections validate that assessment. Parker is the player that the market has ranked 1 spot below Lane Thomas but the projections have Parker putting up more fantasy points. He is starting in no leagues and with a projected outfielder rank of #122 in week 16 it makes sense.

He is projected for 2.3 fantasy points in week 16 (#122 OF) in limited action.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
2.28 (#122) 
Avg0.256 (#74) 
 
OPS0.65 (#93) 
 
Home Runs 
0.12 (#114) 
Runs 
0.45 (#124) 
RBI 
0.43 (#123) 
Stolen Bases0.08 (#87) 
 

  • Based on 7/5 start percentages, Lane Thomas is valued behind Reyes and above Parker and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jul 12Jul 13Jul 14
    0.7 FP vs ARI0.8 FP vs ARI0.8 FP vs ARI

    Lane Thomas last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    7/4 @SEA0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-1
    6/30 @SD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    5/26 vs ATL0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-0
    5/22 vs KC0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-0
    4/24 vs MIL3 FP, 15 FD, 11 DK2-3, 1 SB, 1 BB

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among outfielders is #127. Based on ownership percentage (under 1%) and season fantasy rankings, Lane Thomas has a market rank of #138 among outfielders. With a lower market rank than projection rank, consider Lane Thomas to be undervalued. While there is value and likely a clear opportunity to acquire him via trade or waiver wire pick up it is probably not worth the roster spot at this time. Even though he is undervalued, he is not projected for more fantasy points than other outfielders with a better market ranking. He is projected for 64 fantasy points in 23 remaining games. Based on average FPs, he is even better with the #69 highest average. The market ranks Lane Thomas behind Locastro and above Reyes but the projections rank Reyes over Lane Thomas.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    64 (#127) 
    Avg0.269 (#60) 
     
    OPS0.777 (#77) 
     
    Home Runs3 (#117) 
     
    Runs 
    12 (#128) 
    RBI 
    12 (#127) 
    Stolen Bases2 (#83) 
     
    Strikeouts22 (#12) 
     

    His projected fantasy points is lower than you would like given his relatively strong OPS projection.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 4 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 2.9 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL2.9 FP per Week22
    Week 47 (3 games 2.3 per game)+4.1
    Week 55.5 (3 games 1.8 per game)+2.6
    Week 14-0.5 (1 games)-3.4
    Week 15-0.5 (1 games)-3.4

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 5.9 FD points and 4.9 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 1000 and on FanDuel it was 1000 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was -1000 and on FanDuel it was -1000 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All5.9 ($2.1K)3 G, 5 B4.9 ($3.7K)2 G, 4 B
    7/4 @SEA0 ($2K)-5.90 ($3.8K)-4.9
    6/30 @SD0 ($2K)-5.90-4.9
    4/24 MIL15 ($2.2K)+9.111 ($3.8K)+6.1
    4/23 MIL0 ($2.2K)-5.90 ($3.8K)-4.9
    4/22 MIL10 ($2.3K)+4.17 ($4K)--
    4/21 NYM0 ($2.2K)-5.90 ($3.4K)-4.9
    4/20 NYM0 ($2K)-5.90 ($3.4K)-4.9
    4/19 NYM22.2 ($2K)+16.316 ($3.7K)+11.1