Dwight Smith's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Most already consider Dwight Smith to be a good starting outfielder, but the projections indicate he is an elite fantasy option. Based on ownership percentage (84%), Dwight Smith has a market rank of #36 among outfielders. He is projected to be the #26 outfielder. Even as an established quality fantasy option, if he lives up to projections he is still undervalued and there could be an opportunity to buy 'low'. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better outfielder option available. He is projected for more FPs than Nomar Mazara who has virtually the same market rank (84% Owned) as Smith. He is projected for 307 fantasy points in 112 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#65) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Dwight Smith behind Markakis and above Mazara but the projections rank Dwight Smith over Markakis.

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Lower Own%D. Smith ROSHigher Own%
A. Eaton (314 FP)307 FPN. Markakis (305 FP)
G. Polanco (316 FP)#36 OutfieldL. Cain (291 FP)
D. Dietrich (326 FP) 
A. McCutchen (295 FP)
 
 
W. Myers (270 FP)
 
 
N. Castellanos (300 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
307 (#26) 
Avg 
 
0.257 (#71)
OPS 
 
0.765 (#76)
Home Runs 
19 (#22) 
Runs 
61 (#29) 
RBI65 (#14) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
6 (#51)
Strikeouts 
 
109 (#127)

He has more relative weaknesses than strengths which hurts his value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Dwight Smith is a good value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #36 while his projection rank (rest of week 8) is #15. When compared to other outfielders in week 9 these are 3 better options at lower start percentages: Brett Gardner (18.5 FP), Aaron Hicks (21.2 FP), and Clint Frazier (19.2 FP). Alex Gordon (12.5 FP), Lorenzo Cain (12.1 FP), Andrew McCutchen (16.8 FP), Starling Marte (14.8 FP), and Nick Castellanos (13.4 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Smith but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 77% of leagues he is expected to produce 15.8 fantasy points (WK 9). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #29 outfielder of week 9. He is projected to be better than that (the #19 outfielder). Even though his per game projected FP average is not better than normal, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

Lower Start%D. Smith WK 9Higher Start%
B. Gardner (18 FP)18 FPA. Gordon (12 FP)
A. Hicks (21 FP)#29 OutfieldL. Cain (12 FP)
C. Frazier (19 FP) 
A. McCutchen (17 FP)
 
 
S. Marte (15 FP)
 
 
N. Castellanos (13 FP)

He is projected for 18 fantasy points in week 9 (#19 OF) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
18.01 (#19) 
Avg 
 
0.255 (#69)
OPS 
 
0.695 (#60)
Home Runs 
1.16 (#17) 
Runs 
3.59 (#20) 
RBI3.8 (#9) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.36 (#45)

  • Based on 5/16 start percentages, Dwight Smith is valued behind Puig and above Meadows but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 9.
  • May 20May 21May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26
    2.6 FP vs NYY2.3 FP vs NYY2.2 FP vs NYY2.6 FP vs NYY2.2 FP @COL3.3 FP @COL2.8 FP @COL

    Dwight Smith last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    --
    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/15 @NYY-1 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4
    5/12 vs LAA9 FP, 28 FD, 21 DK2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    5/11 vs LAA8 FP, 25 FD, 19 DK2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R
    5/10 vs LAA-1 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-4

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (5/16): Projected for 7.6 DraftKings pts Dwight Smith is the #21 ranked outfielder. He is the #16 highest priced outfielder ($4500). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Smith is worth $4.3K. There are 2 other options at $4500 (Shin-Soo Choo, Ronald Acuna) and Smith is ranked #3 among the 3. Instead of Smith consider these better options at lower salaries: Nelson Cruz (9.6 FP), Lorenzo Cain (8.2 FP), Randal Grichuk (9.3 FP), Adam Eaton (7.8 FP), and Khris Davis (9.2 FP). Hunter Pence (6.6 FP), Starling Marte (7.1 FP), Gregory Polanco (6.8 FP), Domingo Santana (6.5 FP), and Hunter Renfroe (5.4 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Smith but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 8 FPs, a value reached in 24 of 74 games (32%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 39%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: There are 3 other options at $3500 (Nick Markakis, Andrew McCutchen, Trey Mancini) and Smith is the best option of these 4. Instead of Smith consider these better options at lower salaries: Ryan Braun (10.2 FP), Lorenzo Cain (10.6 FP), Randal Grichuk (12.3 FP), Leonys Martin (10.9 FP), and Max Kepler (10.9 FP). Hunter Pence (8.9 FP), Starling Marte (9.4 FP), Gregory Polanco (8.9 FP), Domingo Santana (8.6 FP), and Nick Senzel (6.1 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Smith but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 10.2 FPs, a value reached in 24 of 74 games (32%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

    Smith is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 8 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 15.2 FPs in 2 of them. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL15.2 FP per Week21
    Week 110 (3 games 3.3 per game)
    Week 28 (6 games 1.3 per game)
    Week 323 (6 games 3.8 per game)+7.8
    Week 429.5 (6 games 4.9 per game)+14.2
    Week 513 (5 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 620.5 (5 games 4.1 per game)
    Week 720 (6 games 3.3 per game)
    Week 8-2 (2 games -1 per game)-17.2

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 11.6 FD points and 7.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 18 and on FanDuel it was 25.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All11.6 ($3.1K)10 G, 11 B7.8 ($4.3K)9 G, 11 B
    5/15 @NYY0 ($3.6K)-11.60 ($4.9K)-7.8
    5/15 @NYY0 ($3.6K)-11.60 ($4.9K)-7.8
    5/12 LAA28.2 ($3.5K)+16.621 ($4.3K)+13.2
    5/11 LAA25.2 ($3.5K)+13.619 ($4.9K)+11.2
    5/10 LAA0 ($3.4K)-11.60 ($4.8K)-7.8
    5/8 BOS0 ($3.3K)-11.60 ($4.5K)-7.8
    5/7 BOS18.9 ($3.6K)+7.314 ($4.8K)+6.2
    5/6 BOS0 ($3.5K)-11.60 ($4.9K)-7.8
    5/4 TB18.7 ($3.4K)+7.114 ($4.7K)+6.2
    5/3 TB6 ($3.3K)--6 ($4.6K)--
    5/1 @CHW15.5 ($3.3K)--13 ($4.7K)+5.2
    5/1 @CHW15.7 ($3.3K)--11 ($4.7K)--
    4/29 @CHW12.4 ($3.6K)--10 ($4.7K)--
    4/28 @MIN0 ($3.9K)-11.60 ($4.8K)-7.8
    4/27 @MIN0 ($3.8K)-11.60 ($4.6K)-7.8
    4/26 @MIN12.5 ($3.7K)--9 ($4.7K)--
    4/24 CHW9.2 ($3.8K)--7 ($4.7K)--
    4/23 CHW25.7 ($3.8K)+14.118 ($4.9K)+10.2
    4/21 MIN10--7--
    4/20 MIN28.2 ($3.6K)+16.621 ($4.4K)+13.2
    4/18 @TB12.7 ($3.6K)--9 ($4.2K)--
    4/17 @TB6 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.2K)--
    4/16 @TB15.2 ($3.2K)--11 ($3.6K)--
    4/15 @BOS35.2 ($3.1K)+23.625+17.2
    4/14 @BOS0 ($2.5K)-11.60 ($3.7K)-7.8
    4/13 @BOS15.4 ($2.5K)--10--
    4/12 @BOS22.2 ($2.2K)+10.616 ($3.5K)+8.2
    4/11 OAK31.2 ($2.6K)+19.623+15.2
    4/10 OAK0 ($2.5K)-11.60 ($3.6K)-7.8
    4/9 OAK15.2 ($2.8K)--11 ($3.9K)--
    4/7 NYY0 ($2.9K)-11.60 ($3.7K)-7.8
    4/6 NYY3 ($2.7K)-8.63 ($3.7K)-4.8
    4/4 NYY9.2 ($2.8K)--7--
    4/3 @TOR6.2 ($3K)--5--
    4/2 @TOR6.2 ($2.8K)--5 ($3.6K)--
    4/1 @TOR6.2 ($2.4K)--5 ($3.6K)--
    3/31 @NYY18.7 ($2.3K)+7.114 ($3.3K)+6.2
    3/30 @NYY15.5 ($2.3K)--11--
    3/28 @NYY6.2 ($2.1K)--5--