Fade Lester at Dodgers... Lean on D-Backs vs Nationals

Early lines that I like are Diamondbacks -120 vs. Nationals, Rockies -145 vs. Padres, Dodgers -200 vs. Cubs, and Blue Jays -145 vs. Orioles.  Zack Greinke is always a good starter to bet on, even on the road.  Greinke is 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA on the road this season and with the way the Diamondbacks are hitting right now, I like them even though the Nats are starting to play better. The D-Backs have the third highest OPS in the league in the last seven days. Also, the Nats haven't been good in the first game of a series, and they will be home for the first game after a long road trip.

Update:  The Diamondbacks line has stayed the same, I still really like this value with their ace in Zack Greinke on the mound against the Nationals.  The Diamondbacks are swinging it well enough to compensate for Greinke even if he doesn't have the best outing. 

I like the Rockies at home, especially against a team like the Padres that has trouble scoring runs, and with a starting pitcher (Nick Margevicius) that hasn't pitched in Coors Field.  The Rockies have won their last 10 games at home.  The only thing I would be weary about is Jon Gray against the home run power of the Padres, but I think the Rockies could outscore them regardless. The Rockies have the edge when it comes to the bullpen with the 9th best bullpen ERA in the league.

Update: The Rockies line has stayed the same as well and I still like the Rockies in this game.  Jon Gray has been good at home and the Rockies crush lefties.  Only thing I would be weary about is Arenado after leaving early yesterday so that's something to watch out for.

The Dodgers are coming off getting swept in Los Angeles, and they have their ace in Kershaw starting.  The Cubs have the most extreme home/road splits in the league, and they will have Jon Lester, who also has one of the most extreme home/road splits in the league, starting. The Cubs are 24-11 at home and 13-18 on the road. Lester has a 2.45 ERA at home and 4.97 ERA on the road. 

Update:  The Dodgers line has become much more favorable at -175.  I like this value with the Cubs on the road and one of the best pitchers in the league in Kershaw any day.

Lastly, the Blue Jays have Marcus Stroman starting in Baltimore against Gabriel Ynoa. Stroman has been very good this year with a 3.31 ERA, while Ynoa hasn't been as good with a 4.96 ERA. The Blue Jays have a slight edge in lineups, a big edge in the starter, and a slight edge in bullpen.  However, I would expect the Blue Jays to outscore the Orioles in this game regardless.

Update: The Blue Jays line is a little pricey still and with Ken Giles on the IL, I would be cautious of their bullpen.


So the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Dodgers would be my favorite plays of the night.  

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