Fatigue an Issue Over Dodgers' Next 12 Games (Over 32.1K Travel Miles)

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NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 10 games is very good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The rest of the games are toss ups.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUL 12
CLOSE GAME
44% @BOS
2591 miles
JUL 13
CLOSE GAME
49% @BOS
-- miles
JUL 14
CLOSE GAME
47% @BOS
-- miles
JUL 15
LIKELY WIN
70% @PHI
271 miles
JUL 16
LIKELY WIN
67% @PHI
-- miles
JUL 17
LIKELY WIN
60% @PHI
-- miles
JUL 18
CLOSE GAME
56% @PHI
-- miles
JUL 19
LIKELY WIN
79% MIA
2390 miles
JUL 20
LIKELY WIN
80% MIA
--
JUL 21
LIKELY WIN
72% MIA
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 7-3 (25% chance). Their chances of winning 9 or more are 4.8%. At #1 in the league, they are ahead of the Braves by 5.5 points. With a +1.32 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Dodgers are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Dodgers are playing 12 games, traveling 32075 miles crossing 39 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' next game is on July 12. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 60-32 the Dodgers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 56 wins. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 37-12- home record is +13% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 28.6% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. The Dodgers perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 65.4% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #3 in the league back on 4/24.

Their average run differential is +1.4 which ranks #1 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 10 games is +0.4 (#6 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 92 Games5.2 (#3)0.263 (#3)0.626 (#6)
Road5.0 (#4)0.251 (#5)0.592 (#11)
Home5.4 (#3)0.275 (#4)0.658 (#5)
Last 10 Games5.5 (#4)0.258 (#10)0.590 (#10)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All3.8 (#1)0.224 (#1)0.545 (#1)
Road4.4 (#4)0.243 (#40.569 (#4)
Home3.3 (#1)0.209 (#1)0.525 (#2)
Last 10 Games5.1 (#11)0.262 (#9)0.637 (#9)

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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Dodgers are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.6% chance of winning it all. On 4/24 they had a 14.8% chance before increasing to 30.9% on 7/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 29.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 45.5% chance of winning the NL (6/5) and a 25% chance of winning it all (3/1). In simulations they make the World Series 46% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #14 Toughest

Dodgers' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%NL ChampMLB Champ
Jul 11105.6100%46%29.4%
Jul 7106.6100%47.1%30.9%
Difference-1---1.1%-1.5%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Kenley Jansen2.297% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #2)
Cody Bellinger3.4100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Hyun-Jin Ryu5.898% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #19)
Walker Buehler5.798% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #18)
Clayton Kershaw4.898% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #12)
Justin Turner2.795% Own (Slightly Undervalued w/ Market Rank #14)