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NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The Dodgers next 10 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road GameJUL 12CLOSE GAME45% @BOS2591 milesJUL 13CLOSE GAME44% @BOS-- milesJUL 14CLOSE GAME51% @BOS-- milesJUL 15LIKELY WIN63% @PHI271 milesJUL 16LIKELY WIN69% @PHI-- milesJUL 17LIKELY WIN63% @PHI-- milesJUL 18CLOSE GAME54% @PHI-- milesJUL 19LIKELY WIN79% MIA2390 milesJUL 20LIKELY WIN73% MIA--JUL 21LIKELY WIN82% MIA--
The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 19.4%. At #1 in the league, they are ahead of the Braves by 5.5 points. With a +1.36 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.
Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Dodgers are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Dodgers are playing 13 games, traveling 34373 miles crossing 42 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Los Angeles Dodgers' next game. They are -107 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 60-32 the Dodgers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 56 wins. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 37-12- home record is +13% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 30.8% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. We have simulated the Dodgers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 65.4% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #3 in the league back on 4/24.
Their average run differential is +1.4 which ranks #1 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is 0 (#6 over this stretch).
TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):
|All 92 Games||5.2 (#3)||0.263 (#3)||0.626 (#6)|
|Road||5.0 (#4)||0.251 (#5)||0.592 (#11)|
|Home||5.4 (#3)||0.275 (#4)||0.658 (#5)|
|Last 9 Games||4.8 (#6)||0.239 (#13)||0.539 (#13)|
ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):
|All||3.8 (#1)||0.224 (#1)||0.545 (#1)|
|Road||4.4 (#4)||0.243 (#4||0.569 (#4)|
|Home||3.3 (#1)||0.209 (#1)||0.525 (#2)|
|Last 9 Games||4.8 (#9)||0.245 (#4)||0.638 (#9)|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Dodgers are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.6% chance of winning it all. On 4/24 they had a 14.8% chance before increasing to 30.9% on 7/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 29.3%. Based on the odds, they have a 45.5% chance of winning the NL (6/5) and a 25% chance of winning it all (3/1). In simulations they make the World Series 45.7% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #14 Toughest
Dodgers' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||NL Champ||MLB Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Kenley Jansen||2.2||97% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #3)|
|Cody Bellinger||3.4||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)|
|Walker Buehler||5.8||98% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #20)|
|Hyun-Jin Ryu||5.6||98% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #15)|
|Clayton Kershaw||4.8||98% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #16)|
|Max Muncy||2.9||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #6)|