Fatigue for Dodgers? Traveling 34.4K Miles Across 4 Time Zones (13 Games)

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NEXT 10 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The Dodgers next 10 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game

JUL 12
CLOSE GAME
45% @BOS
2591 miles
JUL 13
CLOSE GAME
44% @BOS
-- miles
JUL 14
CLOSE GAME
51% @BOS
-- miles
JUL 15
LIKELY WIN
63% @PHI
271 miles
JUL 16
LIKELY WIN
69% @PHI
-- miles
JUL 17
LIKELY WIN
63% @PHI
-- miles
JUL 18
CLOSE GAME
54% @PHI
-- miles
JUL 19
LIKELY WIN
79% MIA
2390 miles
JUL 20
LIKELY WIN
73% MIA
--
JUL 21
LIKELY WIN
82% MIA
--

The most likely scenario over the next 10 games is a record of 6-4 (27% chance). Their chances of winning 8 or more are 19.4%. At #1 in the league, they are ahead of the Braves by 5.5 points. With a +1.36 advantage in projected wins over their next 10 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Dodgers are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Dodgers are playing 13 games, traveling 34373 miles crossing 42 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Los Angeles Dodgers' next game. They are -107 favorites and are not a good value. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

At 60-32 the Dodgers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 56 wins. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 37-12- home record is +13% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 30.8% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. We have simulated the Dodgers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 65.4% of the time (#1 in the league). They have moved up from #3 in the league back on 4/24.

Their average run differential is +1.4 which ranks #1 in the NL, which is the same as how they rank in win percentage. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams. They are trending down. Their average run differential in their past 9 games is 0 (#6 over this stretch).

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 92 Games5.2 (#3)0.263 (#3)0.626 (#6)
Road5.0 (#4)0.251 (#5)0.592 (#11)
Home5.4 (#3)0.275 (#4)0.658 (#5)
Last 9 Games4.8 (#6)0.239 (#13)0.539 (#13)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All3.8 (#1)0.224 (#1)0.545 (#1)
Road4.4 (#4)0.243 (#40.569 (#4)
Home3.3 (#1)0.209 (#1)0.525 (#2)
Last 9 Games4.8 (#9)0.245 (#4)0.638 (#9)

Sportsline not only has a pick on every game and line our Experts provide winning Daily Fantasy Optimal Lineups every day.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Dodgers are World Series contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 18.6% chance of winning it all. On 4/24 they had a 14.8% chance before increasing to 30.9% on 7/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 29.3%. Based on the odds, they have a 45.5% chance of winning the NL (6/5) and a 25% chance of winning it all (3/1). In simulations they make the World Series 45.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #14 Toughest

Dodgers' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%NL ChampMLB Champ
Jul 12105.5100%45.7%29.3%
Jul 7106.6100%47.1%30.9%
Difference-1.1---1.4%-1.6%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (SP, RP, C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Kenley Jansen2.297% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #3)
Cody Bellinger3.4100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)
Walker Buehler5.898% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #20)
Hyun-Jin Ryu5.698% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #15)
Clayton Kershaw4.898% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #16)
Max Muncy2.9100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #6)