Freddie Freeman is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#5 1B/DH)

2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD

Freddie Freeman is projected to be an elite fantasy first baseman and worth a high draft pick. His projected position rank based on season total fantasy points is #5 (at 1B/DH). In 2018, he was owned in 100 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 3.07 fantasy points per game in 154 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is down slightly from where he finished last season.

1B/DH RankPlayerProj FPProj Stats
#3Anthony Rizzo509.70.273 AVG, 28 HR, 103 RBI, 80 R, 75 BB, 7 SB
#4Khris Davis501.20.249 AVG, 45 HR, 120 RBI, 94 R, 60 BB
#5Freddie Freeman473.20.288 AVG, 25 HR, 94 RBI, 86 R, 69 BB, 8 SB
#6Nelson Cruz473.10.260 AVG, 40 HR, 116 RBI, 82 R, 52 BB
#7Matt Carpenter471.50.255 AVG, 32 HR, 75 RBI, 98 R, 95 BB, 3 SB

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SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Freddie Freeman was the #11 ranked fantasy player this season and the #2 1B. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (162). Based on average fantasy points he is the #6 1B. His production dropped throughout the season. In his first 53 games he averaged 3.8 FPs and that declined to 2.8 in his final 54 games. Based on a relatively low standard deviation, Freeman can be considered a consistent fantasy player. Our projected ceiling for Freeman when he 'goes off' is 16 fantasy points (his average is 3.2FPs).

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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

Based on his fantasy point average, he is on a downward trend. His average fantasy points decreased by 16% this season.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points524436
FP Average3.23.8
Regular Season GP162116
AVG0.3090.306
OPS0.8930.985
HR2328
RBI9871
R9483
SB108
BB7665
KO13295

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 19.4 fantasy points per week and had 6 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% vs just one bad week.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL19.4 FP per Week61
Week 122.5 (3 games 7.5 per game)
Week 231.5 (6 games 5.2 per game)+12.1
Week 310 (5 games 2 per game)
Week 410.5 (6 games 1.8 per game)
Week 533.5 (7 games 4.8 per game)+14.1
Week 620.5 (6 games 3.4 per game)
Week 733.5 (6 games 5.6 per game)+14.1
Week 819.5 (6 games 3.2 per game)
Week 912 (6 games 2 per game)
Week 1022.5 (8 games 2.8 per game)
Week 1132 (6 games 5.3 per game)+12.6
Week 1224.5 (6 games 4.1 per game)
Week 1311.5 (5 games 2.3 per game)
Week 1416 (6 games 2.7 per game)
Week 1521 (7 games 3 per game)
Week 1610.5 (5 games 2.1 per game)
Week 177.5 (2 games 3.8 per game)-11.9
Week 1815 (6 games 2.5 per game)
Week 1917 (6 games 2.8 per game)
Week 2026 (7 games 3.7 per game)
Week 2132 (8 games 4 per game)+12.6
Week 2211 (7 games 1.6 per game)
Week 2312 (6 games 2 per game)
Week 2418.5 (7 games 2.6 per game)
Week 2512 (6 games 2 per game)
Week 2631 (7 games 4.4 per game)+11.6
Week 2710.5 (6 games 1.8 per game)

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 11.5 FD points and 8.6 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 15 and 22.2 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All11.5 ($4.3K)28 G, 35 B8.6 ($4.9K)30 G, 37 B
9/30 @PHI3 ($4.3K)-8.52 ($4.8K)-6.6
9/29 @PHI0 ($4.3K)-11.50 ($4.8K)-8.6
9/28 @PHI34.5 ($4.3K)+2326 ($5.1K)+17.4
9/27 @NYM0 ($3.9K)-11.50 ($4.9K)-8.6
9/26 @NYM0 ($3.7K)-11.50 ($4.3K)-8.6
9/25 @NYM6 ($3.8K)--5 ($4.7K)--
9/23 PHI0 ($4.1K)-11.50 ($4.6K)-8.6
9/22 PHI10 ($4.4K)--7 ($5K)--
9/21 PHI9.5 ($4.4K)--7 ($4.9K)--
9/20 PHI15.4 ($4.4K)--12 ($5.1K)--
9/19 STL40.7 ($4.3K)+29.229 ($4.3K)+20.4
9/18 STL12 ($4.2K)--11 ($4.5K)--
9/17 STL25.2 ($4.2K)+13.719 ($4.6K)+10.4
9/16 WAS3 ($4.1K)-8.53 ($4.7K)-5.6
9/15 WAS3.5 ($4K)-82 ($5.2K)-6.6
9/14 WAS12.7 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.2K)--
9/12 @SF9.5 ($4.3K)--8 ($4.9K)--
9/11 @SF3 ($4.2K)-8.52 ($4.4K)-6.6
9/10 @SF12.2 ($4.1K)--10 ($4.4K)--
9/9 @ARI12.5 ($4K)--10 ($4.6K)--
9/8 @ARI18.2 ($4.1K)+6.713 ($4.7K)+4.4
9/7 @ARI0 ($4K)-11.50 ($4.4K)-8.6
9/6 @ARI12.4 ($4K)--9 ($4.2K)--
9/5 BOS18.7 ($4.2K)+7.214 ($4.7K)+5.4
9/4 BOS3 ($4.1K)-8.53 ($4.5K)-5.6
9/3 BOS6 ($4.1K)--5 ($4.6K)--
9/2 PIT3.2 ($4.1K)-8.32-6.6
9/1 PIT12.7 ($4.1K)--9 ($4.6K)--
8/31 PIT0 ($3.9K)-11.50 ($4.6K)-8.6
8/30 CHC25.7 ($3.9K)+14.219 ($4.2K)+10.4
8/29 TB9.2 ($4.1K)--7 ($4.8K)--
8/28 TB0 ($4.1K)-11.50 ($4.8K)-8.6
8/26 @MIA0 ($4.1K)-11.50 ($4.7K)-8.6
8/25 @MIA6 ($4.3K)--5 ($4.6K)--
8/24 @MIA3 ($4.3K)-8.53 ($5.2K)-5.6
8/23 @MIA9.2 ($4.3K)--6 ($5K)--
8/22 @PIT3.5 ($4.3K)-82 ($5.1K)-6.6
8/21 @PIT6 ($4.2K)--5 ($5.1K)--
8/20 @PIT12.2 ($4.1K)--9 ($5K)--
8/19 COL15.4 ($4.2K)--12 ($5.3K)--
8/18 COL9.5 ($4.2K)--9 ($5.4K)--
8/17 COL9.7 ($4.2K)--6 ($5K)--
8/16 COL12 ($4.2K)--8 ($5.1K)--
8/15 MIA9 ($4.2K)--8 ($5.1K)--
8/14 MIA27.9 ($4.2K)+16.421 ($5.1K)+12.4
8/13 MIA25.2 ($4.2K)+13.719 ($4.8K)+10.4
8/13 MIA3.5 ($4.2K)-82 ($4.8K)-6.6
8/12 MIL18.4 ($4.2K)+6.914 ($4.9K)+5.4
8/11 MIL12.2 ($4.2K)--9 ($4.6K)--
8/10 MIL15.7 ($4K)--11 ($4.7K)--
8/9 @WAS15 ($4.1K)--13 ($4.7K)+4.4
8/8 @WAS6.5 ($4.2K)--5 ($5K)--
8/7 @WAS9.2 ($4.2K)--7 ($4K)--
8/7 @WAS6.2 ($4.2K)--5 ($4K)--
8/5 @NYM3 ($4.2K)-8.53 ($5K)-5.6
8/4 @NYM9 ($4.3K)--8 ($4.6K)--
8/3 @NYM6 ($4.1K)--5 ($4.3K)--
8/2 @NYM15.7 ($4.3K)--10 ($5.1K)--
7/31 MIA15.7 ($3.9K)--13 ($4.7K)+4.4
7/30 MIA18.7 ($3.8K)+7.214 ($4.8K)+5.4
7/29 LAD9.2 ($4K)--7 ($4.9K)--
7/28 LAD0 ($4K)-11.50 ($4.5K)-8.6
7/27 LAD0 ($4K)-11.50 ($4.1K)-8.6
7/26 LAD6 ($4.3K)--6 ($4.9K)--
7/24 @MIA6 ($4.1K)--6--
7/23 @MIA31.4 ($4.2K)+19.923 ($5.1K)+14.4
7/22 @WAS3 ($4.3K)-8.53 ($4.1K)-5.6
7/20 @WAS22.7 ($4.2K)+11.216 ($4.8K)+7.4
7/15 ARI15.7 ($4.2K)--11 ($4.1K)--
7/14 ARI3 ($4.2K)-8.53 ($4.7K)-5.6
7/13 ARI9.2 ($4.2K)--8 ($5K)--
7/11 TOR12.7 ($4.5K)--10 ($5.2K)--
7/10 TOR3 ($4.5K)-8.52 ($5.2K)-6.6
7/8 @MIL18.5 ($4.2K)+715 ($5.2K)+6.4
7/7 @MIL30.9 ($4.3K)+19.424 ($5.2K)+15.4
7/6 @MIL6 ($4.4K)--5 ($5.2K)--
7/5 @MIL6.5 ($4.4K)--4 ($5.3K)-4.6
7/4 @NYY3--2--
7/3 @NYY6.2 ($4.6K)--5 ($5.2K)--
7/2 @NYY0 ($4.5K)-11.50 ($5.1K)-8.6
7/1 @STL22.2 ($4.7K)+10.716 ($5.1K)+7.4
6/30 @STL9.2 ($4.7K)--7 ($5.2K)--
6/29 @STL6 ($4.7K)--5 ($5.1K)--
6/27 CIN6.2 ($4.7K)--4 ($5.4K)-4.6
6/26 CIN9.7 ($4.8K)--7 ($5.5K)--
6/25 CIN6.2 ($4.7K)--4 ($5.4K)-4.6
6/24 BAL10 ($4.7K)--7 ($5.6K)--
6/23 BAL6 ($4.5K)--4 ($5.6K)-4.6
6/22 BAL19.2 ($4.4K)+7.714 ($5.6K)+5.4
6/20 @TOR6.2 ($4.7K)--5 ($5.1K)--
6/19 @TOR9 ($4.7K)--8 ($5.6K)--
6/17 SD0--0--
6/16 SD3--3--
6/15 SD21.7--16--
6/14 SD9.2--7--
6/13 NYM25.2--19--
6/12 NYM27.9--20--
6/10 @LAD18.7--14--
6/9 @LAD18.2--14--
6/8 @LAD9.5--7--
6/6 @SD18.7--14--
6/5 @SD46.6--35--
6/4 @SD0--0--
6/3 WAS9--9--
6/2 WAS6--5--
6/1 WAS6--6--
5/31 WAS9--7--
5/30 NYM6--6--
5/29 NYM9.2--7--
5/28 NYM19.2--14--
5/28 NYM9--8--
5/27 @BOS16--11--
5/26 @BOS9.5--8--
5/25 @BOS9.2--7--
5/23 @PHI3--3--
5/22 @PHI6--6--
5/21 @PHI9--6--
5/20 MIA15.7--13--
5/19 MIA22.2--16--
5/18 MIA3--2--
5/16 CHC15.7--12--
5/15 CHC9--5--
5/14 @CHC12--7--
5/13 @MIA9.2 ($4.5K)--7 ($5.3K)--
5/12 @MIA50.1 ($4.5K)+38.637 ($5.3K)+28.4
5/11 @MIA3 ($4.3K)-8.52 ($5.3K)-6.6
5/10 @MIA34.2 ($4.3K)+22.730 ($5.4K)+21.4
5/9 @TB3.5 ($4.5K)-82 ($5.3K)-6.6
5/8 @TB6 ($4.4K)--5 ($5.3K)--
5/6 SF3 ($4.8K)-8.53 ($5.3K)-5.6
5/5 SF3.5 ($4.7K)-82 ($5.4K)-6.6
5/4 SF22.2 ($4.5K)+10.716 ($5.2K)+7.4
5/3 @NYM9.4 ($4.4K)--6 ($5.4K)--
5/2 @NYM15.7 ($4.3K)--13 ($4.4K)+4.4
5/1 @NYM19.2 ($4.3K)+7.714 ($4.7K)+5.4
4/29 @PHI3 ($4.6K)-8.52 ($5K)-6.6
4/28 @PHI12.5 ($4.6K)--10--
4/27 @PHI18.7 ($4.5K)+7.213 ($4.8K)+4.4
4/26 @CIN27.4 ($4.5K)+15.921 ($5.3K)+12.4
4/25 @CIN9 ($4.2K)--8--
4/24 @CIN37.4 ($4.2K)+25.928+19.4
4/23 @CIN6.2 ($4.1K)--5--
4/21 NYM19 ($4.2K)+7.514 ($4.7K)+5.4
4/20 NYM0 ($4.3K)-11.50 ($4.8K)-8.6
4/19 NYM12.7 ($4.4K)--10 ($5.1K)--
4/18 PHI6 ($4.6K)--5 ($5.1K)--
4/17 PHI3 ($4.6K)-8.52 ($5.1K)-6.6
4/16 PHI3 ($4.6K)-8.52 ($5.2K)-6.6
4/14 @CHC15.7 ($4.5K)--12 ($5.2K)--
4/13 @CHC3 ($4.4K)-8.53-5.6
4/11 @WAS24.2 ($4K)+12.717 ($5.2K)+8.4
4/10 @WAS3 ($4.1K)-8.52 ($4.4K)-6.6
4/9 @WAS0 ($4.2K)-11.50 ($4.6K)-8.6
4/8 @COL9 ($5K)--7 ($5.8K)--
4/7 @COL9.5 ($5.1K)--7 ($5.8K)--
4/6 @COL15.7 ($5K)--11 ($5.7K)--
4/4 WAS15.2 ($4.1K)--12--
4/3 WAS44.6 ($4.2K)+33.131 ($4.6K)+22.4
4/2 WAS9.5 ($4.8K)--7 ($4.7K)--
3/31 PHI22.2 ($4.7K)+10.716 ($4.7K)+7.4
3/30 PHI12.2 ($4.4K)--8 ($4.5K)--
3/29 PHI37.6 ($4.4K)+26.126 ($4.8K)+17.4