Houston Astros Meet Expectations and Finish the Season 103-59

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 101.6 wins. Their 103 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 57-24 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. They won 46 at home and were expected to win 53.8. We are only projecting 95.8 wins in our latest season forecast for next season and are projected to finish fourth in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #5 ranked Rays who are projected for 90 wins.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record is slightly better than it should be. Their average run differential is +1.49 which ranks #2 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #1. They are the #2 ranked team in run differential (based on all teams' road stats) and the #1 ranked team among home teams.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 170 Games5.5 (#1)0.266 (#1)0.622 (#1)
Road5.2 (#3)0.254 (#5)0.587 (#6)
Home5.7 (#1)0.279 (#1)0.661 (#1)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.0 (#2)0.234 (#3)0.545 (#3)
Road3.9 (#4)0.234 (#30.538 (#2)
Home4.0 (#4)0.234 (#4)0.552 (#3)

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TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Astros in all of their games would have earned a +1242 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have lost -267 units risking 100 units on each pick (83-79 PL). The Astros have turned a run line profit on the road but have lost at home.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LineRun Line RecordO/U Record
All Games4.9 - 3.3103-59, +124283-79, -26769-84 54.9% Under
On Road5.2 - 3.057-24, +124249-32, +130532-42 56.8% Under
At Home4.6 - 3.646-35, -143634-47, -157137-42 53.2% Under
9/30 @BAL0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
9/29 @BAL4-3Win +41Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/29 @BAL5-2Win +37Covered -1.5Under 8
9/28 @BAL2-1Win +37Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/26 @TOR1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
9/25 @TOR4-1Win +53Covered -1.5Under 9
9/24 @TOR5-3Win +56Covered -1.5Under 9
9/23 LAA6-2Win +48Covered -1.5Push 8
9/22 LAA10-5Win +36Covered -1.5Over 7.5
9/21 LAA11-3Win +50Covered -1.5Over 7.5
9/19 SEA0-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
9/18 SEA7-0Win +59Covered -1.5Under 8.5
9/17 SEA1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
9/16 ARI5-4Win +51Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7
9/15 ARI10-4Win +57Covered -1.5Over 8
9/14 ARI2-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
9/12 @DET5-4Win +37Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
9/11 @DET5-4Win +57Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
9/10 @DET3-2Win +25Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/9 @BOS5-6Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
9/8 @BOS5-3Win +105Covered +1.5Under 8.5
9/7 @BOS6-3Win +89Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/5 MIN9-1Win +40Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/4 MIN5-2Win +33Covered -1.5Under 7.5
9/3 MIN4-1Win +41Covered -1.5Under 7.5
9/2 LAA4-2Win +48Covered -1.5Under 7.5
9/1 LAA7-3Win +54Covered -1.5Over 9
8/31 LAA0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
8/30 LAA2-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/29 OAK5-4Win +65Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/28 OAK3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
8/27 OAK11-4Win +50Covered -1.5Over 8
8/26 @LAA3-1Win +82Covered -1.5Under 9
8/25 @LAA8-3Win +50Covered -1.5Over 7.5
8/24 @LAA9-3Win +77Covered -1.5Over 8
8/22 @SEA10-7Win +67Covered -1.5Over 8
8/21 @SEA3-2Win +70Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
8/20 @SEA4-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
8/19 @OAK9-4Win +61Covered -1.5Over 7.5
8/18 @OAK1-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Push 8
8/17 @OAK3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/15 COL12-1Win +49Covered -1.5Over 7.5
8/14 COL1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
8/12 SEA3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
8/11 SEA2-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/10 SEA2-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
8/9 SEA6-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 6.5
8/7 @SF2-1Win +94Covered +1.5Under 7
8/6 @SF3-1Win +74Covered -1.5Under 7
8/5 @LAD2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 7.5
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8/1 @SEA8-3Win +87Covered -1.5Over 8
7/31 @SEA5-2Win +61Covered -1.5Under 8
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7/29 TEX3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
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7/27 TEX2-11Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
7/25 @COL2-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
7/24 @COL8-2Win +73Covered -1.5Push 10
7/22 @LAA5-14Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
7/21 @LAA7-0Win +56Covered -1.5Under 8
7/20 @LAA3-1Win +93Covered -1.5Under 8.5
7/15 DET3-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
7/14 DET9-1Win +35Covered -1.5Over 7
7/13 DET3-0Win +40Covered -1.5Under 8.5
7/12 OAK4-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
7/11 OAK3-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
7/10 OAK6-5Win +43Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
7/9 OAK0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
7/8 CHW2-1Win +29Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
7/7 CHW12-6Win +27Covered -1.5Over 8
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7/5 CHW4-3Win +30Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
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6/28 @TB1-0Win +66Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
6/27 TOR7-6Win +53Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
6/26 TOR7-0Win +42Covered -1.5Under 8
6/25 TOR3-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7
6/24 KC11-3Win +28Covered -1.5Over 7.5
6/23 KC4-3Win +30Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
6/22 KC0-1Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
6/20 TB5-1Win +38Covered -1.5Under 7.5
6/19 TB1-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
6/18 TB5-4Win +37Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7
6/17 @KC7-4Win +38Covered -1.5Over 9.5
6/16 @KC10-2Win +38Covered -1.5Over 9.5
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6/10 @TEX8-7Win +53Run Line Loss -1.5Over 10.5
6/9 @TEX4-3Win +53Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
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6/5 SEA1-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
6/3 BOS3-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
6/2 BOS4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
6/1 BOS7-3Win +80Covered -1.5Over 7
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5/30 @NYY3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Push 8
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5/27 @CLE9-10Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
5/26 @CLE6-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8
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5/24 @CLE8-2Win +83Covered -1.5Over 8
5/23 SF4-1Win +32Covered -1.5Under 8
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5/20 CLE3-1Win +70Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/19 CLE4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
5/18 CLE4-1Win +61Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/16 @LAA2-0Win +87Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/15 @LAA5-3Win +61Covered -1.5Push 8
5/14 @LAA1-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
5/13 TEX6-1Win +33Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/12 TEX6-1Win +44Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/11 TEX0-1Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
5/9 @OAK4-1Win +57Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/8 @OAK4-2Win +70Covered -1.5Under 8
5/7 @OAK16-2Win +77Covered -1.5Over 8.5
5/6 @ARI1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
5/5 @ARI3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
5/4 @ARI8-0Win +53Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/3 NYY5-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
5/2 NYY0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 7.5
5/1 NYY0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/30 NYY2-1Win +59Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/29 OAK8-4Win +49Covered -1.5Over 8.5
4/28 OAK11-0Win +44Covered -1.5Over 9
4/27 OAK1-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
4/25 LAA5-2Win +50Covered -1.5Under 8.5
4/24 LAA7-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
4/23 LAA0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/22 @CHW7-1Win +53Covered -1.5Push 8
4/21 @CHW10-1Win +48Covered -1.5Over 9
4/20 @CHW10-0Win +39Covered -1.5Over 8.5
4/19 @SEA9-2Win +54Covered -1.5Over 8.5
4/18 @SEA7-1Win +54Covered -1.5Over 7.5
4/17 @SEA4-1Win +50Covered -1.5Under 8
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4/13 TEX3-2Win +40Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/11 @MIN8-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
4/10 @MIN1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
4/9 @MIN2-0Win +69Covered -1.5Under 8
4/8 SD4-1Win +36Covered -1.5Under 8.5
4/7 SD1-0Win +31Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/6 SD1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/4 BAL3-2Win +60Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/3 BAL10-6Win +40Covered -1.5Over 9
4/2 BAL6-1Win +43Covered -1.5Under 9.5
4/1 @TEX8-2Win +65Covered -1.5Over 9.5
3/31 @TEX9-3Win +48Covered -1.5Over 10
3/30 @TEX1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
3/29 @TEX4-1Win +62Covered -1.5Under 9.5
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