Houston Astros Meet Expectations and Finish the Season 103-59

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND 2019 OUTLOOK

The regular season went better than expected. They won 103 games vs an expected win total of 101.6. Their strength was in road games. They went 57-24 on the road and were expected to win 47.7. Their 56.8% home win percentage was much worse than expected (66.5%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 98.6 wins and are projected to finish third in the American League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #4 ranked Indians who are projected for 91.4 wins. They are a contender with a 16.4% chance of winning the World Series based on simulations and a 29.3% chance of reaching the Series. Even with the juice, they are a good futures betting value with championship odds of 6/1, 14.3% and odds to win the AL at 11/4, 26.7%.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is +1.59 which ranks #1 in the AL, but their rank based on win percentage is #2. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #1 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #5 in home games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 170 Games4.9 (#5)0.254 (#4)0.609 (#3)
Road5.3 (#2)0.260 (#3)0.632 (#2)
Home4.6 (#7)0.249 (#9)0.586 (#11)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All3.3 (#1)0.216 (#1)0.525 (#1)
Road3.1 (#1)0.217 (#10.512 (#1)
Home3.6 (#2)0.216 (#1)0.537 (#2)

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TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Astros in all of their games would have earned a +1242 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have lost -267 units risking 100 units on each pick (83-79 PL). The Astros have turned a run line profit on the road but have lost at home.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LineRun Line RecordO/U Record
All Games4.9 - 3.3103-59, +124283-79, -26769-84 54.9% Under
On Road5.2 - 3.057-24, +124249-32, +130532-42 56.8% Under
At Home4.6 - 3.646-35, -143634-47, -157137-42 53.2% Under
9/30 @BAL0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
9/29 @BAL4-3Win +41Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/29 @BAL5-2Win +37Covered -1.5Under 8
9/28 @BAL2-1Win +37Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/26 @TOR1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
9/25 @TOR4-1Win +53Covered -1.5Under 9
9/24 @TOR5-3Win +56Covered -1.5Under 9
9/23 LAA6-2Win +48Covered -1.5Push 8
9/22 LAA10-5Win +36Covered -1.5Over 7.5
9/21 LAA11-3Win +50Covered -1.5Over 7.5
9/19 SEA0-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
9/18 SEA7-0Win +59Covered -1.5Under 8.5
9/17 SEA1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
9/16 ARI5-4Win +51Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7
9/15 ARI10-4Win +57Covered -1.5Over 8
9/14 ARI2-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
9/12 @DET5-4Win +37Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
9/11 @DET5-4Win +57Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
9/10 @DET3-2Win +25Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/9 @BOS5-6Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
9/8 @BOS5-3Win +105Covered +1.5Under 8.5
9/7 @BOS6-3Win +89Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/5 MIN9-1Win +40Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/4 MIN5-2Win +33Covered -1.5Under 7.5
9/3 MIN4-1Win +41Covered -1.5Under 7.5
9/2 LAA4-2Win +48Covered -1.5Under 7.5
9/1 LAA7-3Win +54Covered -1.5Over 9
8/31 LAA0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
8/30 LAA2-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/29 OAK5-4Win +65Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/28 OAK3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
8/27 OAK11-4Win +50Covered -1.5Over 8
8/26 @LAA3-1Win +82Covered -1.5Under 9
8/25 @LAA8-3Win +50Covered -1.5Over 7.5
8/24 @LAA9-3Win +77Covered -1.5Over 8
8/22 @SEA10-7Win +67Covered -1.5Over 8
8/21 @SEA3-2Win +70Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
8/20 @SEA4-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
8/19 @OAK9-4Win +61Covered -1.5Over 7.5
8/18 @OAK1-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Push 8
8/17 @OAK3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/15 COL12-1Win +49Covered -1.5Over 7.5
8/14 COL1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
8/12 SEA3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
8/11 SEA2-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/10 SEA2-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
8/9 SEA6-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 6.5
8/7 @SF2-1Win +94Covered +1.5Under 7
8/6 @SF3-1Win +74Covered -1.5Under 7
8/5 @LAD2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 7.5
8/4 @LAD14-0Win +115Covered +1.5Over 7.5
8/3 @LAD2-1Win +113Covered +1.5Under 7.5
8/1 @SEA8-3Win +87Covered -1.5Over 8
7/31 @SEA5-2Win +61Covered -1.5Under 8
7/30 @SEA0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
7/29 TEX3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
7/28 TEX3-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
7/27 TEX2-11Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
7/25 @COL2-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
7/24 @COL8-2Win +73Covered -1.5Push 10
7/22 @LAA5-14Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
7/21 @LAA7-0Win +56Covered -1.5Under 8
7/20 @LAA3-1Win +93Covered -1.5Under 8.5
7/15 DET3-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
7/14 DET9-1Win +35Covered -1.5Over 7
7/13 DET3-0Win +40Covered -1.5Under 8.5
7/12 OAK4-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
7/11 OAK3-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
7/10 OAK6-5Win +43Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
7/9 OAK0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
7/8 CHW2-1Win +29Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
7/7 CHW12-6Win +27Covered -1.5Over 8
7/6 CHW11-4Win +34Covered -1.5Over 8.5
7/5 CHW4-3Win +30Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
7/4 @TEX5-4Win +59Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
7/3 @TEX5-3Win +59Covered -1.5Under 10.5
7/1 @TB2-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
6/30 @TB2-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Push 7
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6/28 @TB1-0Win +66Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
6/27 TOR7-6Win +53Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
6/26 TOR7-0Win +42Covered -1.5Under 8
6/25 TOR3-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7
6/24 KC11-3Win +28Covered -1.5Over 7.5
6/23 KC4-3Win +30Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
6/22 KC0-1Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
6/20 TB5-1Win +38Covered -1.5Under 7.5
6/19 TB1-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
6/18 TB5-4Win +37Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7
6/17 @KC7-4Win +38Covered -1.5Over 9.5
6/16 @KC10-2Win +38Covered -1.5Over 9.5
6/15 @KC7-3Win +42Covered -1.5Over 9
6/14 @OAK7-3Win +50Covered -1.5Over 7.5
6/13 @OAK13-5Win +50Covered -1.5Over 7.5
6/12 @OAK6-3Win +70Covered -1.5Over 8.5
6/10 @TEX8-7Win +53Run Line Loss -1.5Over 10.5
6/9 @TEX4-3Win +53Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
6/8 @TEX7-3Win +53Covered -1.5Over 9
6/7 @TEX5-2Win +56Covered -1.5Under 9
6/6 SEA7-5Win +55Covered -1.5Over 8.5
6/5 SEA1-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
6/3 BOS3-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
6/2 BOS4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
6/1 BOS7-3Win +80Covered -1.5Over 7
5/31 BOS4-2Win +50Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/30 @NYY3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Push 8
5/29 @NYY5-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/28 @NYY5-1Win +81Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/27 @CLE9-10Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
5/26 @CLE6-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8
5/25 @CLE11-2Win +134Covered +1.5Over 7.5
5/24 @CLE8-2Win +83Covered -1.5Over 8
5/23 SF4-1Win +32Covered -1.5Under 8
5/22 SF11-2Win +40Covered -1.5Over 8
5/20 CLE3-1Win +70Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/19 CLE4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
5/18 CLE4-1Win +61Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/16 @LAA2-0Win +87Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/15 @LAA5-3Win +61Covered -1.5Push 8
5/14 @LAA1-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
5/13 TEX6-1Win +33Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/12 TEX6-1Win +44Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/11 TEX0-1Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
5/9 @OAK4-1Win +57Covered -1.5Under 7.5
5/8 @OAK4-2Win +70Covered -1.5Under 8
5/7 @OAK16-2Win +77Covered -1.5Over 8.5
5/6 @ARI1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
5/5 @ARI3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
5/4 @ARI8-0Win +53Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/3 NYY5-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
5/2 NYY0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 7.5
5/1 NYY0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/30 NYY2-1Win +59Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/29 OAK8-4Win +49Covered -1.5Over 8.5
4/28 OAK11-0Win +44Covered -1.5Over 9
4/27 OAK1-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
4/25 LAA5-2Win +50Covered -1.5Under 8.5
4/24 LAA7-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
4/23 LAA0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/22 @CHW7-1Win +53Covered -1.5Push 8
4/21 @CHW10-1Win +48Covered -1.5Over 9
4/20 @CHW10-0Win +39Covered -1.5Over 8.5
4/19 @SEA9-2Win +54Covered -1.5Over 8.5
4/18 @SEA7-1Win +54Covered -1.5Over 7.5
4/17 @SEA4-1Win +50Covered -1.5Under 8
4/16 @SEA1-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
4/15 TEX1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
4/14 TEX5-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
4/13 TEX3-2Win +40Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/11 @MIN8-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
4/10 @MIN1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
4/9 @MIN2-0Win +69Covered -1.5Under 8
4/8 SD4-1Win +36Covered -1.5Under 8.5
4/7 SD1-0Win +31Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/6 SD1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/4 BAL3-2Win +60Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/3 BAL10-6Win +40Covered -1.5Over 9
4/2 BAL6-1Win +43Covered -1.5Under 9.5
4/1 @TEX8-2Win +65Covered -1.5Over 9.5
3/31 @TEX9-3Win +48Covered -1.5Over 10
3/30 @TEX1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
3/29 @TEX4-1Win +62Covered -1.5Under 9.5