Josh Donaldson is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#7 3B)

2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD

Josh Donaldson is projected to be an elite fantasy third baseman and worth a high draft pick. His projected position rank based on season total fantasy points is #7 (at 3B). In 2018, he was owned in 90 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 3.01 fantasy points per game in 146 games.

3B RankPlayerProj FPProj Stats
#5Kris Bryant481.70.289 AVG, 25 HR, 75 RBI, 96 R, 80 BB, 5 SB
#6Eugenio Suarez458.70.285 AVG, 34 HR, 99 RBI, 77 R, 57 BB
#7Josh Donaldson439.20.264 AVG, 29 HR, 88 RBI, 86 R, 73 BB, 4 SB
#8Matt Chapman424.40.283 AVG, 24 HR, 71 RBI, 90 R, 51 BB
#9Vladimir Guerrero Jr.421.50.280 AVG, 26 HR, 79 RBI, 75 R, 51 BB, 6 SB

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SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

He was the #336 ranked fantasy player this season and the #32 3B. Not playing many games certainly was the main reason for the disappointing season. Based on average fantasy points he was the #13 3B. We split his 52 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). He peaked early in the season. He averaged 3.5 FPs in his first 17 games and 2.7 FP in his final 18 games. A fast start and slow end is somewhat expected given his age. His fantasy production is stable and he is not as volatile as most players based on a below average standard deviation. Our projected ceiling for Donaldson when he 'goes off' is 13 fantasy points (his average is 2.7FPs).

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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON

Getting older predictably resulted in a drop in production. His average fantasy points decreased by 23% this season.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points141400
FP Average2.73.5
Regular Season GP52113
AVG0.2460.270
OPS0.8010.944
HR833
RBI2378
R3065
SB22
BB3176
KO54111

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

Out of 11 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 12.8 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL12.8 FP per Week22
Week 17 (4 games 1.8 per game)
Week 223.5 (6 games 3.9 per game)+10.7
Week 310.5 (2 games 5.2 per game)
Week 619 (5 games 3.8 per game)
Week 78.5 (6 games 1.4 per game)
Week 810 (6 games 1.7 per game)
Week 913.5 (6 games 2.2 per game)
Week 103 (1 games)-9.8
Week 255 (4 games 1.2 per game)-7.8
Week 2615.5 (6 games 2.6 per game)
Week 2725.5 (6 games 4.2 per game)+12.7

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 11 FD points and 8.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 14 and 18.7 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All11 ($3.8K)8 G, 13 B8.8 ($4.5K)8 G, 11 B
9/30 @KC6 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.3K)--
9/29 @KC6.2 ($3.6K)--4 ($4.3K)-4.8
9/28 @KC38.4 ($3.6K)+27.427 ($4.3K)+18.2
9/27 @KC9 ($3.6K)--9 ($4.5K)--
9/26 @CHW15.2 ($3.5K)--10 ($4.6K)--
9/25 @CHW9 ($3.6K)--7 ($4.5K)--
9/23 BOS0 ($3.7K)-110-8.8
9/22 BOS12.7 ($3.6K)--10 ($4.3K)--
9/21 BOS21.7 ($3.5K)+10.717 ($4.2K)+8.2
9/20 CHW3 ($3.5K)-82 ($4.5K)-6.8
9/19 CHW6 ($3.5K)--5 ($4.5K)--
9/18 CHW9.2 ($3.3K)--6 ($4.5K)--
9/16 DET0 ($3.5K)-110 ($4.8K)-8.8
9/14 DET21.7 ($3.4K)+10.717 ($4.2K)+8.2
9/12 @TB0 ($3.5K)-110 ($4.6K)-8.8
9/11 @TB0 ($3.5K)-110 ($4.5K)-8.8
5/28 @BOS9--7--
5/27 @PHI3--3--
5/26 @PHI6--5--
5/25 @PHI12.2--9--
5/24 LAA3--3--
5/23 LAA12.2--9--
5/22 LAA15.2--12--
5/20 OAK0--0--
5/19 OAK6.2--4--
5/18 OAK12--7--
5/17 OAK3--2--
5/16 @NYM19.4--13--
5/15 @NYM6--5--
5/13 BOS12.2 ($4.1K)--10 ($4.5K)--
5/12 BOS3 ($4.1K)-82-6.8
5/11 BOS6.5 ($3.7K)--5 ($4K)--
5/10 SEA12 ($3.8K)--11 ($4.7K)--
5/9 SEA9.2 ($4K)--7 ($4.8K)--
5/8 SEA0 ($3.8K)-110 ($4.6K)-8.8
5/6 @TB0 ($3.9K)-110 ($4.9K)-8.8
5/5 @TB3 ($3.9K)-82-6.8
5/4 @TB3 ($3.5K)-82 ($5K)-6.8
5/3 @CLE18.7 ($3.5K)+7.714 ($4.7K)+5.2
5/3 @CLE44.1 ($3.5K)+33.132 ($4.7K)+23.2
4/10 @BAL6 ($4.1K)--5 ($4.8K)--
4/9 @BAL32.2 ($4.3K)+21.222 ($4.9K)+13.2
4/8 @TEX3 ($4.6K)-83 ($4.9K)-5.8
4/7 @TEX0 ($4.5K)-110 ($4.8K)-8.8
4/6 @TEX15.9 ($4.6K)--12 ($4.8K)--
4/4 CHW9.2 ($4.1K)--7 ($4.6K)--
4/3 CHW34.9 ($3.9K)+23.925 ($4.2K)+16.2
4/2 CHW18.7 ($3.8K)+7.714 ($4.1K)+5.2
4/1 NYY15.4 ($3.6K)--11 ($4.2K)--
3/31 NYY12.2 ($3.8K)--9 ($3.9K)--
3/30 NYY0 ($3.8K)-110 ($4.1K)-8.8
3/29 NYY9--5--