Keller is Projected For 2 FPs and Starting in 40% of Leagues in WK14

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Brad Keller is a good value this week. He has a market rank of #85 while his projection rank (week 14) is #47. When compared to other starting pitchers in week 14 these are 4 better options at lower start percentages: Anibal Sanchez (3 FP), Michael Wacha (3 FP), Adam Plutko (3 FP), and Ariel Jurado (4 FP). Lance Lynn (1 FP), Mike Fiers (2 FP), Jake Odorizzi (2 FP), Brad Peacock (2 FP), and Jose Quintana (2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Keller but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 40% of leagues he is expected to produce 0 fantasy points (WK 14). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #85 starting pitcher of week 14. He is projected to be better than that (the #47 starting pitcher). His per game projected FP average is 1.1 which is better than his actual per game average (-3.9). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 2 games.

Lower Start%B. Keller WK 14Higher Start%
A. Sanchez (3 FP)2.2 FPL. Lynn (1.2 FP)
M. Wacha (2.6 FP)#85 Starting PitcherM. Fiers (1.6 FP)
A. Plutko (3 FP) 
J. Odorizzi (1.8 FP)
A. Jurado (4 FP) 
B. Peacock (1.9 FP)
 
 
J. Quintana (1.6 FP)

He is projected for 2.2 fantasy points in week 14 (#47 SP) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
2.19 (#47) 
Wins0.83 (#9) 
 
Losses 
 
0.59 (#130)
Quality Starts1.16 (#12) 
 
Strikeouts8 (#30) 
 
Innings12.94 (#3) 
 
Walks5.02 (#2) 
 

  • Based on 6/24 start percentages, Brad Keller is valued behind Bassitt and above Richards and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30
    -0.5 FP @CLE--------2.7 FP @TOR

    Brad Keller last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/19 @SEA-18 FP, 6 FD, -2 DK4 IP, 7 ER, 5 K, 9 HA, 2 BBI
    6/14 @MIN6 FP, 40 FD, 22 DK7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K, 3 HA, 3 BBI
    6/8 vs CHW0 FP, 34 FD, 18 DK8 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 5 HA, 1 BBI
    6/2 @TEX-4 FP, 34 FD, 16 DK7 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 9 HA, 0 BBI, HD
    5/28 @CHW-12 FP, 15 FD, 5 DK6 IP, 4 ER, 3 K, 10 HA, 1 BBI, LOSS

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (6/24): Projected for 27.1 FanDuel pts Brad Keller is the #10 ranked pitcher. He is the #9 highest priced pitcher ($7900). Using our calculation of expected points per dollar, Keller is worth $7.7K. These are 2 better options at lower salaries: CC Sabathia (28.2 FP) and Jon Lester (27.4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 27.7 FPs, a value reached in 18 of 57 games (32%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 47%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Brad Keller is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 13.1 DK pts (#11 among pitchers). He is the #12 highest priced pitcher ($6000). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $7.1K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Based on salary, he is expected to have 11 FPs, a value reached in 21 of 57 games (37%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 49%.

    Keller is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    Based on ownership percentage (55%), Brad Keller has a market rank of #85 among starting pitchers. Our projections indicate that Brad Keller is overrated by the market. His fantasy starting pitcher projection rank is #92. He is projected for more FPs than Trevor Richards who has virtually the same market rank (55% Owned) as Keller. He is projected for 10 fantasy points in 16 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#95) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Brad Keller behind Bassitt and above Richards and the projections agree.

    Lower Own%B. Keller ROSHigher Own%
    C. Sabathia (12 FP)10 FPM. Bumgarner (9 FP)
    A. Sanchez (12 FP)#85 Starting PitcherM. Perez (4 FP)
    H. Bailey (16 FP) 
    J. Teheran (9 FP)
    G. Gonzalez (13 FP) 
    Y. Darvish (6 FP)
    W. LeBlanc (21 FP) 
    D. Keuchel (6 FP)
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    10 (#91) 
    Wins7 (#21) 
     
    Losses 
     
    5 (#138)
    Quality Starts9 (#34) 
     
    Strikeouts 
     
    64 (#109)
    Innings97 (#18) 
     
    Walks39 (#7) 
     
    ERA3.43 (#41) 
     
    WHIP 
     
    1.31 (#131)

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged -4.8 fantasy points per week and had 8 weeks where he came up short (below 50% of average) and had 7 weeks where he was +50% above average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL-4.8 FP per Week78
    Week 116.5 (1 games)+21.3
    Week 2-7 (2 games -3.5 per game)+-2.2-2.2
    Week 311.2 (1 games)+16
    Week 4-4.5 (1 games)+0.30.3
    Week 5-12.2 (1 games)-7.4
    Week 6-19.2 (2 games -9.6 per game)-14.4
    Week 7-13.5 (1 games)-8.7
    Week 8-13.8 (1 games)-9
    Week 98.5 (1 games)+13.3
    Week 10-16.5 (2 games -8.2 per game)-11.7
    Week 110 (1 games)+4.8
    Week 125.5 (1 games)+10.3
    Week 13-17.5 (1 games)-12.7

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 25.6 FD points and 12.8 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -2.7 and on FanDuel it was 6 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 28 and on FanDuel it was 46 FPs. He has had an equal number of good (20% above average) and bad games (20% below) on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he has had more bad than good games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All25.6 ($7.3K)3 G, 3 B12.8 ($6.7K)3 G, 4 B
    6/19 @SEA6 ($8.1K)-19.6-2.2-15
    6/14 @MIN40 ($6.9K)+14.421.5 ($5.8K)+8.7
    6/8 CHW34 ($6.8K)--18.4--
    6/2 @TEX34 ($6.7K)--16.4 ($5.5K)--
    5/28 @CHW15--4.9--
    5/22 @STL34 ($6.2K)--17 ($6.7K)--
    5/17 @LAA14 ($6.6K)--3.6 ($6K)-9.2
    5/11 PHI9 ($7K)-16.61.2 ($6.5K)-11.6
    5/5 @DET28 ($7.8K)--13.4 ($8K)--
    4/29 TB3 ($8.2K)-22.6-2.7 ($7.8K)-15.5
    4/22 @TB13 ($8.5K)--4.2 ($8K)-8.6
    4/17 @CHW18 ($8.5K)--7.8--
    4/12 CLE55.6 ($7.8K)+3030.6 ($7.1K)+17.8
    4/7 @DET22 ($7.6K)--8.7 ($7.2K)--
    4/2 MIN28 ($7.1K)--11.5 ($7K)--
    3/28 CHW46 ($6.2K)+20.428 ($4.8K)+15.2