Lance McCullers is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#35 SP)

2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD

Lance McCullers is projected to be an elite fantasy starting pitcher and worth a high draft pick. In our latest projection he is the #35 starting pitcher based on total projected fantasy points. At the end of the 2018 season he was owned in just 73 percent of leagues. This should go up next season. He is projected to average 2.73 fantasy points per game in 26 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is down slightly from where he finished last season.

SP RankPlayerProj FPProj Stats
#33Tanner Roark74.714-9 WL, 168 IP, 160 K, 49, 3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
#34Collin McHugh71.813-5 WL, 153 IP, 168 K, 46, 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
#35Lance McCullers70.911-6 WL, 139 IP, 151 K, 47, 3.67 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
#36Jose Berrios70.915-10 WL, 195 IP, 190 K, 68, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
#37Rich Hill70.311-5 WL, 131 IP, 140 K, 46, 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

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SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Lance McCullers had a good, but not elite, year in fantasy. He was the #539 ranked fantasy player this season. His solid ranking drops slightly if you base things on average fantasy points where he is the #35 SP. We split his 25 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). His production dropped throughout the season. In his first 8 games he averaged 4.2 FPs and that declined to 0.3 in his final 9 games. He is still relatively young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. His fantasy production is more volatile that most players based on having a relatively high standard deviation. When he is good, he is really good but when he is off, he is really off. He averaged 2.6 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 20 fantasy points.

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STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON

He has demonstrated the solid year-to-year improvement that you look for in a younger player. His average Fantasy points increased by 189% this season.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points6620
FP Average2.60.9
Regular Season GP2522
W107
L64
K/910.010.0
ERA3.874.25
WHIP1.171.30
BBI5040
HA100114

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

Out of 20 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 3.3 FPs in 8 of them. He had 8 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL3.3 FP per Week88
Week 110.3 (1 games)+7
Week 2-8.5 (1 games)-11.8
Week 3-14.3 (1 games)-17.6
Week 425 (2 games 12.5 per game)+21.7
Week 518.5 (1 games)+15.2
Week 60.5 (1 games)-2.8
Week 72.5 (1 games)
Week 817 (2 games 8.5 per game)+13.7
Week 9-14.7 (1 games)-18
Week 1010 (1 games)+6.7
Week 11-1 (1 games)-4.3
Week 1213 (2 games 6.5 per game)+9.7
Week 134.5 (1 games)
Week 1414.5 (1 games)+11.2
Week 1518 (1 games)+14.7
Week 16-17.5 (1 games)-20.8
Week 17-15.2 (1 games)-18.5
Week 18-3.2 (1 games)-6.5
Week 192.5 (1 games)
Week 273.9 (3 games 1.3 per game)

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 31 points and on DraftKings it was 16.9 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -7.6 and on FanDuel it was -3 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On Draftkings it was 32.6 and on FanDuel it was 52 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and an equal number of good and bad games on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All31 ($9.5K)4 G, 5 B16.9 ($10.3K)5 G, 5 B
9/30 @BAL8 ($9.4K)-235.5 ($8.8K)-11.4
9/29 @BAL3.6--2.4--
9/26 @TOR6 ($9.8K)-254.2 ($8.8K)-12.7
8/4 @LAD27 ($10K)--16.6 ($8.8K)--
7/29 TEX40 ($10.1K)--24.4 ($10.2K)--
7/22 @LAA7 ($10.5K)-24-0.9 ($9.5K)-17.8
7/11 OAK-3 ($11.4K)-34-7.6 ($11K)-24.5
7/6 CHW64 ($11.3K)+3339.4 ($11.9K)+22.5
6/28 @TB52 ($10.4K)+2130.2 ($11.1K)+13.3
6/23 KC40 ($9.2K)--21.9 ($10.2K)--
6/17 @KC43--22.7--
6/12 @OAK40--21--
6/6 SEA25--10.1--
5/31 BOS34--17.9--
5/26 @CLE-2---5.1--
5/20 CLE55--33.9--
5/14 @LAA34 ($9.3K)--17.9 ($10K)--
5/8 @OAK24 ($9.1K)--11.8 ($11.3K)--
5/3 NYY31 ($9K)--14.3 ($9.1K)--
4/28 OAK52 ($8.8K)+2132.6 ($11.2K)+15.7
4/22 @CHW34 ($8.8K)--14.9 ($11.2K)--
4/17 @SEA61 ($8.6K)+3038.6 ($9.6K)+21.7
4/11 @MIN5 ($8.8K)-26-3.5 ($11.1K)-20.4
4/6 SD30 ($8.5K)--15.2 ($12.3K)--
3/31 @TEX46 ($7.9K)--29 ($9.8K)+12.1