Lance McCullers Was Good, but Not Elite, in Fantasy

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Lance McCullers had a good, but not elite, year in fantasy. He was the #479 ranked fantasy player this season. His value would have been slightly higher if he had played more games. Based on average fantasy points he was the #35 SP. We split his 25 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). His production dropped throughout the season. In his first 8 games he averaged 4.2 FPs and that declined to 0.3 in his final 9 games. He is still relatively young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. Using standard deviation as an indicator of consistency, McCullers is relatively inconsistent capable of very high highs and equally low lows. He averaged 2.6 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 20 fantasy points.

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STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON

He has demonstrated the solid year-to-year improvement that you look for in a younger player. His fantasy average improved by 189%.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points6620
FP Average2.60.9
Regular Season GP2522
W107
L64
K/910.110.3
ERA3.934.37
WHIP1.191.33
BBI5040
HA100114

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

Out of 20 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 3.3 FPs in 8 of them. He had 8 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL3.3 FP per Week88
Week 110.3 (1 games)+7
Week 2-8.5 (1 games)-11.8
Week 3-14.3 (1 games)-17.6
Week 425 (2 games 12.5 per game)+21.7
Week 518.5 (1 games)+15.2
Week 60.5 (1 games)-2.8
Week 72.5 (1 games)
Week 817 (2 games 8.5 per game)+13.7
Week 9-14.7 (1 games)-18
Week 1010 (1 games)+6.7
Week 11-1 (1 games)-4.3
Week 1213 (2 games 6.5 per game)+9.7
Week 134.5 (1 games)
Week 1414.5 (1 games)+11.2
Week 1518 (1 games)+14.7
Week 16-17.5 (1 games)-20.8
Week 17-15.2 (1 games)-18.5
Week 18-3.2 (1 games)-6.5
Week 192.5 (1 games)
Week 273.9 (3 games 1.3 per game)

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 31 FD points and 16.9 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -7.6 and on FanDuel it was -3 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 32.6 and 52 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and an equal number of good and bad games on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All31 ($9.5K)4 G, 5 B16.9 ($10.3K)5 G, 5 B
9/30 @BAL8 ($9.4K)-235.5 ($8.8K)-11.4
9/29 @BAL3.6--2.4--
9/26 @TOR6 ($9.8K)-254.2 ($8.8K)-12.7
8/4 @LAD27 ($10K)--16.6 ($8.8K)--
7/29 TEX40 ($10.1K)--24.4 ($10.2K)--
7/22 @LAA7 ($10.5K)-24-0.9 ($9.5K)-17.8
7/11 OAK-3 ($11.4K)-34-7.6 ($11K)-24.5
7/6 CHW64 ($11.3K)+3339.4 ($11.9K)+22.5
6/28 @TB52 ($10.4K)+2130.2 ($11.1K)+13.3
6/23 KC40 ($9.2K)--21.9 ($10.2K)--
6/17 @KC43--22.7--
6/12 @OAK40--21--
6/6 SEA25--10.1--
5/31 BOS34--17.9--
5/26 @CLE-2---5.1--
5/20 CLE55--33.9--
5/14 @LAA34 ($9.3K)--17.9 ($10K)--
5/8 @OAK24 ($9.1K)--11.8 ($11.3K)--
5/3 NYY31 ($9K)--14.3 ($9.1K)--
4/28 OAK52 ($8.8K)+2132.6 ($11.2K)+15.7
4/22 @CHW34 ($8.8K)--14.9 ($11.2K)--
4/17 @SEA61 ($8.6K)+3038.6 ($9.6K)+21.7
4/11 @MIN5 ($8.8K)-26-3.5 ($11.1K)-20.4
4/6 SD30 ($8.5K)--15.2 ($12.3K)--
3/31 @TEX46 ($7.9K)--29 ($9.8K)+12.1