Max Scherzer Will Dominate in Fantasy in 2019 (#1 SP)

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD

Max Scherzer is projected to be the best fantasy starting pitcher in the upcoming season. In 2018, he was owned in 97 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 6.57 fantasy points per game in 33 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is the same as where he finished last season.

SP RankPlayerProj FPProj Stats
#1Max Scherzer216.717-7 WL, 213 IP, 254 K, 57, 2.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
#2Justin Verlander188.918-8 WL, 203 IP, 241 K, 62, 3.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
#3Jacob deGrom187.714-8 WL, 205 IP, 222 K, 51, 2.39 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
#4Chris Sale17315-5 WL, 166 IP, 211 K, 38, 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
#5Trevor Bauer156.818-7 WL, 196 IP, 224 K, 59, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

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SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Max Scherzer was the #181 ranked fantasy player this season. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (35). Based on average fantasy points he is the #2 SP. We split his 35 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). He peaked early in the season. He averaged 10.7 FPs in his first 11 games and 7.5 FP in his final 12 games. A fast start and slow end is somewhat expected given his age. Based on a relatively low standard deviation, Scherzer can be considered a consistent fantasy player. He averaged 7.7 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 22 fantasy points.

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CURRENT CAREER TREND AND STATISTICS

His fantasy point average held steady over the past 2 seasons, which is a good sign given his advancing age.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points271235
FP Average7.77.6
Regular Season GP3531
W1816
L76
K/912.212.0
ERA2.532.51
WHIP0.910.90
BBI5155
HA150126

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

Out of 27 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 10 FPs in 8 of them. He had 8 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL10 FP per Week88
Week 115 (1 games)
Week 2-6.5 (1 games)-16.5
Week 340.5 (2 games 20.2 per game)+30.5
Week 410.5 (1 games)
Week 512 (1 games)
Week 621.2 (2 games 10.6 per game)+11.1
Week 717.5 (1 games)+7.5
Week 86.5 (1 games)
Week 91 (1 games)-9
Week 1021 (2 games 10.5 per game)+11
Week 1118 (3 games 6 per game)+8
Week 121 (1 games)-9
Week 136.5 (1 games)
Week 14-1 (1 games)-11
Week 15-1 (2 games -0.5 per game)-11
Week 169.5 (1 games)
Week 178.5 (1 games)
Week 1818.5 (1 games)+8.5
Week 1913 (1 games)
Week 2018.5 (2 games 9.2 per game)+8.5
Week 2113.5 (1 games)
Week 222 (1 games)-8
Week 23-0.5 (1 games)-10.5
Week 2419 (2 games 9.5 per game)+9
Week 25-15 (1 games)-25
Week 266.5 (1 games)
Week 2715 (1 games)

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 47.6 FD points and 28 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 2.4 and on FanDuel it was 12 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was 36.8 and on FanDuel it was 61 FPs. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All47.6 ($11.8K)0 G, 2 B28 ($13K)1 G, 3 B
9/25 MIA58 ($12.4K)--34.2 ($12.8K)--
9/20 NYM55 ($12K)--31.6 ($13K)--
9/14 @ATL12 ($12K)-35.62.4 ($13.7K)-25.6
9/8 CHC61 ($11.7K)--36.8 ($12.5K)--
9/3 STL49 ($11.5K)--28.8 ($12.2K)--
8/28 @PHI21 ($12K)-26.612.2 ($12.6K)-15.8
8/23 PHI49 ($12.2K)--28.2 ($11.5K)--
8/17 MIA49 ($12.2K)--27.9 ($12.6K)--
8/12 @CHC58 ($11.9K)--35.4--
8/7 ATL40 ($11.9K)--22.8 ($13.9K)--
8/2 CIN52 ($11.8K)--29.9 ($13K)--
7/27 @MIA67 ($11.5K)--41 ($13.9K)--
7/22 ATL43 ($11.8K)--22.1 ($13.2K)--
7/12 @NYM37 ($12K)--19.6 ($13.3K)--
7/7 MIA24 ($12.2K)--12.4 ($14.3K)-15.6
7/2 BOS40 ($11.7K)--20.1 ($13.3K)--
6/26 @TB34 ($12.2K)--17.6--
6/21 BAL46 ($12.2K)--26.2 ($14.5K)--
6/16 @TOR46--25.9--
6/10 SF46--25.6--
6/8 SF0--0--
6/5 TB67--41--
6/2 @ATL0--0--
5/30 @BAL70--44.2--
5/25 @MIA24--11.5--
5/19 LAD58--33--
5/11 @ARI61 ($11.7K)--37.4 ($13.3K)--
5/6 PHI65 ($11.6K)--37.4 ($13.4K)--
5/1 PIT47 ($11.5K)--27.2 ($12.7K)--
4/25 @SF52 ($11.5K)--29.3 ($13.1K)--
4/20 @LAD52 ($11.4K)--28.1 ($12.5K)--
4/14 COL58 ($11.5K)--36.6 ($12.4K)--
4/9 ATL67 ($11.1K)--45.6 ($12.6K)+17.6
4/4 @ATL30 ($11.4K)--16.4--
3/30 @CIN58 ($11.1K)--33.9 ($12.7K)--