Max Scherzer Will Dominate in Fantasy in 2019 (#1 SP)

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Max Scherzer is projected to be the best fantasy starting pitcher in the upcoming season. In 2018, he was owned in 97 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 6.56 fantasy points per game in 33 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is the same as where he finished last season.

SP RankPlayerProj FPProj Stats
#1Max Scherzer216.617-7 WL, 214 IP, 253 K, 57, 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
#2Justin Verlander188.818-8 WL, 202 IP, 241 K, 62, 3.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
#3Jacob deGrom187.514-8 WL, 205 IP, 222 K, 51, 2.39 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
#4Chris Sale17315-5 WL, 166 IP, 211 K, 38, 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
#5Blake Snell159.518-7 WL, 187 IP, 198 K, 75, 2.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

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Max Scherzer was the #181 ranked fantasy player this season. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (35). Based on average fantasy points he is the #2 SP. We split his 35 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). His production dropped throughout the season. In his first 11 games he averaged 10.7 FPs and that declined to 7.5 in his final 12 games. A fast start and slow end is somewhat expected given his age. His fantasy production is stable and he is not as volatile as most players based on a below average standard deviation. He averaged 7.7 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 22 fantasy points.

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His fantasy point average held steady over the past 2 seasons, which is fairly impressive given his advancing age.

Fantasy Points271235
FP Average7.77.6
Regular Season GP3531


Out of 27 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 10 FPs in 8 of them. He had 8 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL10 FP per Week88
Week 115 (1 games)
Week 2-6.5 (1 games)-16.5
Week 340.5 (2 games 20.2 per game)+30.5
Week 410.5 (1 games)
Week 512 (1 games)
Week 621.2 (2 games 10.6 per game)+11.1
Week 717.5 (1 games)+7.5
Week 86.5 (1 games)
Week 91 (1 games)-9
Week 1021 (2 games 10.5 per game)+11
Week 1118 (3 games 6 per game)+8
Week 121 (1 games)-9
Week 136.5 (1 games)
Week 14-1 (1 games)-11
Week 15-1 (2 games -0.5 per game)-11
Week 169.5 (1 games)
Week 178.5 (1 games)
Week 1818.5 (1 games)+8.5
Week 1913 (1 games)
Week 2018.5 (2 games 9.2 per game)+8.5
Week 2113.5 (1 games)
Week 222 (1 games)-8
Week 23-0.5 (1 games)-10.5
Week 2419 (2 games 9.5 per game)+9
Week 25-15 (1 games)-25
Week 266.5 (1 games)
Week 2715 (1 games)


His FanDuel average was 47.6 points and on DraftKings it was 28 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 2.4 and on FanDuel it was 12 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was 36.8 and on FanDuel it was 61 FPs. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All47.6 ($11.8K)0 G, 2 B28 ($13K)1 G, 3 B
9/25 MIA58 ($12.4K)--34.2 ($12.8K)--
9/20 NYM55 ($12K)--31.6 ($13K)--
9/14 @ATL12 ($12K)-35.62.4 ($13.7K)-25.6
9/8 CHC61 ($11.7K)--36.8 ($12.5K)--
9/3 STL49 ($11.5K)--28.8 ($12.2K)--
8/28 @PHI21 ($12K)-26.612.2 ($12.6K)-15.8
8/23 PHI49 ($12.2K)--28.2 ($11.5K)--
8/17 MIA49 ($12.2K)--27.9 ($12.6K)--
8/12 @CHC58 ($11.9K)--35.4--
8/7 ATL40 ($11.9K)--22.8 ($13.9K)--
8/2 CIN52 ($11.8K)--29.9 ($13K)--
7/27 @MIA67 ($11.5K)--41 ($13.9K)--
7/22 ATL43 ($11.8K)--22.1 ($13.2K)--
7/12 @NYM37 ($12K)--19.6 ($13.3K)--
7/7 MIA24 ($12.2K)--12.4 ($14.3K)-15.6
7/2 BOS40 ($11.7K)--20.1 ($13.3K)--
6/26 @TB34 ($12.2K)--17.6--
6/21 BAL46 ($12.2K)--26.2 ($14.5K)--
6/16 @TOR46--25.9--
6/10 SF46--25.6--
6/8 SF0--0--
6/5 TB67--41--
6/2 @ATL0--0--
5/30 @BAL70--44.2--
5/25 @MIA24--11.5--
5/19 LAD58--33--
5/11 @ARI61 ($11.7K)--37.4 ($13.3K)--
5/6 PHI65 ($11.6K)--37.4 ($13.4K)--
5/1 PIT47 ($11.5K)--27.2 ($12.7K)--
4/25 @SF52 ($11.5K)--29.3 ($13.1K)--
4/20 @LAD52 ($11.4K)--28.1 ($12.5K)--
4/14 COL58 ($11.5K)--36.6 ($12.4K)--
4/9 ATL67 ($11.1K)--45.6 ($12.6K)+17.6
4/4 @ATL30 ($11.4K)--16.4--
3/30 @CIN58 ($11.1K)--33.9 ($12.7K)--