Must DFS Play (Aguilar) and Fade (Bellinger) Advice

Jesus Aguilar

There are 5 other options at $2700 (Yadier Molina, Robinson Chirinos, Howie Kendrick, Justin Smoak, Jake Rogers) and Aguilar is the best option of these 6. Miguel Cabrera (6.8 FP), Daniel Murphy (9.1 FP), Carlos Santana (11.4 FP), Freddie Freeman (12.6 FP), and Anthony Rizzo (11.1 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Aguilar but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.1 FPs, a value reached in 132 of 270 games (49%). The combined 'cover percentage' for shortstops expected to start is 46%.

There are 2 other options at $3700 (Ryan Zimmerman, Logan Forsythe) and Aguilar is the best option of these 3. Howie Kendrick (6 FP), Daniel Murphy (7 FP), Carlos Santana (8.5 FP), Gerardo Parra (3.4 FP), and Freddie Freeman (9.2 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Aguilar but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.3 FPs, a value reached in 97 of 270 games (36%). The combined 'cover percentage' for first basemen expected to start is 38%.

Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier are also good values on both FanDuel and DraftKings on 8/22.

Cody Bellinger

Projected for 11.5 FanDuel pts Cody Bellinger is the #13 ranked outfielder. He is the #1 highest priced outfielder ($4900). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.8K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). These are 5 better options at lower salaries: Shin-Soo Choo (12.3 FP), Michael Brantley (12.5 FP), Nick Castellanos (12 FP), Thomas Pham (14.4 FP), and Adam Eaton (11.6 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 14.7 FPs, a value reached in 96 of 301 games (32%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 43%.

Bellinger is not the best option on DraftKings with a projected 8.6 DK pts (#4 among first basemen). He is the #1 highest priced first basemen ($5700). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Bellinger is worth $5.1K. These are 3 better options at lower salaries: Freddie Freeman (9.2 FP), Jesus Aguilar (9.6 FP), and Jose Abreu (9.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.7 FPs, a value reached in 110 of 301 games (37%). The combined 'cover percentage' for first basemen expected to start is 38%.

Trea Turner and Ronald Acuna are also bad values on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

This information was last updated at 8/22/2019 7:25:02 AM. SportsLine has a Daily Fantasy Cheat Sheet and Optimal Lineups based on the latest computer projections. It also features lineups from DFS Millionaire, Mike McClure, visit SportsLine for more.

TODAY'S GAMES (AVG O/U 9.2) AND PROJECTED FANTASY LEADERS

TEXAS RANGERS VS CHICAGO WHITE SOX O/U 11 (o-104, u-117)

  • Ariel Jurado (SP) 25.5 FD $6.4K, 12.9 DK $5K
  • Ross Detwiler (SP) 24.5 FD $5.5K, 12.2 DK $4.6K
  • Yoan Moncada (3B) 13.4 FD $3.4K, 10.2 DK $4.5K
  • Tim Anderson (SS) 12.3 FD $3.1K, 9.5 DK $4.8K
  • Shin-Soo Choo (OF) 12.3 FD $3.6K, 9.3 DK $4.8K

TAMPA BAY RAYS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES O/U 9.5 (o-114, u-105)

  • Ryan Yarbrough (SP) 27.4 FD $9K, 14.3 DK $9.3K
  • Asher Wojciechowski (SP) 26.5 FD $6K, 13.8 DK $6.8K
  • Austin Meadows (OF) 15.2 FD $3.7K, 11.6 DK $4.8K
  • Thomas Pham (OF) 14.4 FD $3.9K, 10.8 DK $5K
  • Kevin Kiermaier (OF) 13.7 FD $2.8K, 10.3 DK $4.2K

NEW YORK YANKEES VS OAKLAND ATHLETICS O/U 9.5 (o-110, u-110)

  • Masahiro Tanaka (SP) 29.4 FD $7.7K, 15.5 DK $7.5K
  • Tanner Roark (SP) 25.1 FD $7.5K, 12.2 DK $8.5K
  • Marcus Semien (SS) 11.3 FD $3.4K, 8.6 DK $4.4K
  • Aaron Judge (OF) 10.9 FD $3.8K, 8.2 DK $4K
  • Matt Chapman (3B) 10.7 FD $3.8K, 8.1 DK $4.6K

MIAMI MARLINS VS ATLANTA BRAVES O/U 9.5 (o-106, u-116)

  • Mike Soroka (SP) 34 FD $9.3K, 18 DK $10K
  • Sandy Alcantara (SP) 27 FD $6.6K, 13.8 DK $6.6K
  • Freddie Freeman (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 12.6 FD $4.4K, 9.2 DK $5.5K
  • Ronald Acuna (OF) 12.4 FD $4.4K, 9.3 DK $5.9K
  • Josh Donaldson (3B) 10.4 FD $3.5K, 7.7 DK $4.7K

TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS O/U 9 (o-119, u-101)

  • Kenta Maeda (SP) 31.1 FD $7.8K, 17.6 DK $8.1K
  • Jacob Waguespack (SP) 24.9 FD $7K, 12.6 DK $7K
  • Cody Bellinger (OF FD, 1B DK) 11.5 FD $4.9K, 8.6 DK $5.7K
  • Max Muncy (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 10.7 FD $4K, 7.8 DK $5.2K
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B) 10.4 FD $3K, 7.8 DK $4.1K

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS CHICAGO CUBS O/U TBD (Sim Projects: 8.9)

  • Kyle Hendricks (SP) 32.8 FD $8K
  • Jeff Samardzija (SP) 27.3 FD $7.3K
  • Nick Castellanos (OF) 12 FD $4K
  • Javier Baez (SS) 11.6 FD $3.9K
  • Anthony Rizzo (C/1B) 11.1 FD $4.3K

COLORADO ROCKIES VS ST LOUIS CARDINALS O/U TBD (Sim Projects: 8.8)

  • German Marquez (SP) 36.1 FD $8.8K, 20.3 DK $10.6K
  • Miles Mikolas (SP) 26.7 FD $6.8K, 13.1 DK $7.2K
  • Trevor Story (SS) 12.3 FD $4.1K, 9.4 DK $5.4K
  • Marcell Ozuna (OF) 11.8 FD $3.7K, 8.8 DK $4.3K
  • Charlie Blackmon (OF) 11.4 FD $4.6K, 8.8 DK $5.4K

DETROIT TIGERS VS HOUSTON ASTROS O/U 8.5 (o-114, u-106)

  • Gerrit Cole (SP) 47 FD $12.2K, 27 DK $12K
  • Yordan Alvarez (OF) 13.8 FD $4.2K, 10.2 DK $5.8K
  • George Springer (OF) 13.5 FD $4.1K, 10.2 DK $5.5K
  • Alex Bregman (3B) 13.7 FD $4.4K, 10 DK $5.5K
  • Jordan Zimmermann (SP) 15.7 FD $5.8K, 6.8 DK $4.8K

WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES O/U 8.5 (o-110, u-110)

  • Max Scherzer (SP) 45 FD $12K, 25.3 DK $11.4K
  • Steven Brault (SP) 22.2 FD $6.2K, 11.2 DK $5.4K
  • Anthony Rendon (3B) 14.7 FD $4.4K, 10.9 DK $5.6K
  • Juan Soto (OF) 12.5 FD $4.2K, 9.4 DK $5.6K
  • Trea Turner (SS) 11.7 FD $4.3K, 9 DK $5.6K

CLEVELAND INDIANS VS NEW YORK METS O/U 8.5 (o-105, u-118)

  • Noah Syndergaard (SP) 32.6 FD $10K, 17.2 DK $10.3K
  • Aaron Civale (SP) 30.6 FD $8.5K, 16.3 DK $6.2K
  • Jose Ramirez (3B) 12 FD $3.4K, 9.1 DK $4.2K
  • Francisco Lindor (SS) 11.5 FD $4K, 8.9 DK $4.4K
  • Carlos Santana (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 11.4 FD $3.7K, 8.5 DK $4.6K