MLB 2019 Futures: Dodgers Projected to Make World Series for Third Straight Season

The percentage difference at the top of the AL is small at 4%. The New York Yankees at 21.1% trails the Boston Red Sox at 21.9%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Red Sox chances are down from 27.9 percent. There is a 2.7 difference in projected win total between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. This are 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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Boston Red Sox100.550.0%92.1%11/4 (26.7%)21.9%
New York Yankees99.141.5%88.9%7/2 (22.2%)21.1%
Houston Astros96.368.7%81.4%11/4 (26.7%)21.0%
Cleveland Indians91.970.4%75.7%5/1 (16.7%)18.6%
Tampa Bay Rays90.18.5%50.6%20/1 (4.8%)6.4%
Oakland Athletics87.417.6%37.2%15/1 (6.2%)4.2%
Minnesota Twins85.227.5%35.9%30/1 (3.2%)3.5%
Los Angeles Angels84.19.3%22.5%20/1 (4.8%)2.3%
Seattle Mariners79.93.4%9.5%25/1 (3.8%)0.6%
Kansas City Royals70.91.4%1.9%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Texas Rangers74.71.0%3.1%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Chicago White Sox68.20.6%0.8%30/1 (3.2%)--
Toronto Blue Jays66.20.1%0.2%30/1 (3.2%)--
Detroit Tigers60.30.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--
Baltimore Orioles56.40.1%0.1%150/1 (0.7%)--

There is a 41% gap between the Dodgers and the Nationals. The Washington Nationals at 19.9% trails the Los Angeles Dodgers at 28%. The Nationals may be closing the gap with their chances rising from 17.2%. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.93 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best NL record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

Los Angeles Dodgers101.287.5%96.2%7/2 (22.2%)28.0%
Washington Nationals92.166.6%76.9%8/1 (11.1%)19.9%
Milwaukee Brewers91.038.0%67.3%6/1 (14.3%)15.5%
Chicago Cubs91.037.9%67.2%5/1 (16.7%)14.0%
St Louis Cardinals87.019.7%46.7%8/1 (11.1%)7.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks86.18.1%40.9%30/1 (3.2%)5.0%
Atlanta Braves83.919.2%34.2%6/1 (14.3%)4.1%
Colorado Rockies82.74.2%25.0%15/1 (6.2%)2.4%
New York Mets80.610.7%20.1%15/1 (6.2%)2.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates79.54.2%14.8%25/1 (3.8%)1.3%
Philadelphia Phillies75.53.4%7.1%9/1 (10%)0.4%
Cincinnati Reds68.80.2%1.0%50/1 (2%)--
San Francisco Giants69.50.1%1.3%50/1 (2%)--
San Diego Padres68.60.1%0.9%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins61.10.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--

In a league with 10 playoff teams you would expect to see 10 or so teams in contention (at least a two percent chance). This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At the top, the Red Sox have a 1 percentage point lead over the Dodgers. The separation between the team with the #8 highest chances vs the #10 highest is 2.9 percentage points.

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Boston Red Sox6/114.3%13.6%--
Los Angeles Dodgers7/112.5%12.9%--
New York Yankees7/112.5%12.6%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%11.7%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%10.8%--
Washington Nationals16/15.9%8.9%--
Milwaukee Brewers12/17.7%7.4%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%6%.0--
St Louis Cardinals16/15.9%3.2%--
Tampa Bay Rays40/12.4%3.1%--
Arizona Diamondbacks60/11.6%2%.0--
Oakland Athletics30/13.2%1.7%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%1.6%--
Minnesota Twins60/11.6%1.1%--
Los Angeles Angels40/12.4%1%.0--