MLB 2019 Futures: Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are Best World Series Bets

There is a small 1.2% gap between the Astros and the Yankees. The New York Yankees at 28.7% trail the Houston Astros at 29.9%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Astros chances are down from 32 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #6 best record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros100.680.5%91.6%11/4 (26.7%)29.9%
New York Yankees102.556.5%94.9%9/4 (30.8%)28.7%
Boston Red Sox99.437.4%90.2%13/4 (23.5%)16.8%
Cleveland Indians91.779.3%81.6%5/1 (16.7%)11.4%
Oakland Athletics89.014.3%45.5%15/1 (6.2%)5.5%
Tampa Bay Rays89.56.1%47.7%15/1 (6.2%)4.1%
Los Angeles Angels82.94.5%17.6%20/1 (4.8%)1.6%
Minnesota Twins80.915.7%20.1%12/1 (7.7%)1.4%
Kansas City Royals75.04.4%5.8%500/1 (0.2%)0.3%
Seattle Mariners74.10.3%2.3%150/1 (0.7%)--
Texas Rangers72.10.3%1.4%500/1 (0.2%)--
Chicago White Sox65.90.3%0.3%30/1 (3.2%)--
Detroit Tigers64.20.3%0.3%250/1 (0.4%)--
Toronto Blue Jays68.70.1%0.4%150/1 (0.7%)--
Baltimore Orioles53.80.1%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--

There is a huge 17.8% gap between NL leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 34.4 percent chance of winning the NL and the Chicago Cubs are at 16.6%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Dodgers chances are down from 37.9 percent. While 2.12 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. There are 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers100.794.1%97.2%7/2 (22.2%)34.4%
Chicago Cubs92.452.2%77.6%6/1 (14.3%)16.6%
Washington Nationals93.263.1%80.2%6/1 (14.3%)16.3%
St Louis Cardinals87.121.6%50.8%6/1 (14.3%)8.7%
Milwaukee Brewers86.821.3%49.5%8/1 (11.1%)8.5%
Philadelphia Phillies84.616.7%38.8%6/1 (14.3%)6.5%
Atlanta Braves83.112.4%31.5%10/1 (9.1%)3.0%
New York Mets80.87.6%21.3%12/1 (7.7%)2.1%
Colorado Rockies80.73.7%20.9%12/1 (7.7%)1.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates79.14.8%16.3%40/1 (2.4%)1.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks77.41.6%10.2%40/1 (2.4%)0.7%
San Francisco Giants71.20.3%2.4%50/1 (2%)0.2%
San Diego Padres70.80.3%2.1%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Cincinnati Reds66.80.2%0.7%40/1 (2.4%)--
Miami Marlins65.10.1%0.3%1000/1 (0.1%)--

It is a wide open field with more teams with a decent chance of winning it all than total playoff teams. There are 11 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Dodgers have a 0 percentage point lead over the Astros. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 1.2 percentage points.

WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers7/112.5%18.6%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%18.2%--
New York Yankees5/116.7%17.3%--
Boston Red Sox7/112.5%9.2%--
Chicago Cubs12/17.7%7.4%--
Washington Nationals12/17.7%6.8%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%4.3%--
Milwaukee Brewers16/15.9%3.6%--
St Louis Cardinals12/17.7%3.6%--
Philadelphia Phillies12/17.7%2.5%--
Oakland Athletics30/13.2%2.3%--
Tampa Bay Rays30/13.2%1.8%--
Atlanta Braves20/14.8%1.2%--